Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[DFW Stormwatcher]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

Fort Worth NWS is inserting as a possibility in their forecasting discussion, so it's not an outrageous forecast. No one has been forecasting massive amounts of snow for this system in their "wishcasts".

[msstateguy83]

say that to me again when this pans out that was quite an ignorant statement

[msstateguy83]

FROM OUN.... THIS EXPLAINS IT ALL CASE CLOSED!

[wxag07]

say that to me again when this pans out that was quite an ignorant statement

Listen I'm not trying to pick a fight. No one knows the future, not even the best forecaster on earth

Case in point. I love severe weather and do a ton of chasing when I'm not stuck in class. But wishful thinking will make you put together a worse forecast more times than not. I had to learn this the hard way with countless chase day busts.

The fact is that this board has forecast more snow than any model or any nws forecast has for every event this year. show me one time where the models were wrong because they showed too much snow? models are only "wrong" when they don't show snow. That's a wishcast.

Sure sometimes the snowy forecast turns out to be a better forecast. sometimes it's a worse forecast. Like when I was home on semester break, there was a snow event bfore new years. this board was going for 4-8 inches and we got barely an inch in Vernon. I actually thought you guys were going to be right cause you guys nailed the christmas snow storm. But since then, I've realized that -removed- is rampant on this board, and I take it with a grain of salt. you guys are smart weather-savy people. I'm just saying you'd be better forecasters if you could take your love for big snow storms out of the forecasting equation tats all

[Ntxw]

That's why we have our pro mets they tend to bring all of us down to earth once in awhile and tell us what we don't like to hear lol. We're all weather enthusiasts who likes the worst case scenarios much like the cat 5 people hitting miami every year on the tropical system forums. You're very right that not all of these systems are BIG ones, by no means is this one going to be, but someone somewhere (region wise) has the potential as with most of the storms this winter. I do admit Msstateguy83 sure does like forecasting a lot of snow for Wichita Falls area with every storm but his intentions are good nonetheless.

[txtiff]

say that to me again when this pans out that was quite an ignorant statement

Listen I'm not trying to pick a fight. No one knows the future, not even the best forecaster on earth

Case in point. I love severe weather and do a ton of chasing when I'm not stuck in class. But wishful thinking will make you put together a worse forecast more times than not. I had to learn this the hard way with countless chase day busts.

The fact is that this board has forecast more snow than any model or any nws forecast has for every event this year. show me one time where the models were wrong because they showed too much snow? models are only "wrong" when they don't show snow. That's a wishcast.

Sure sometimes the snowy forecast turns out to be a better forecast. sometimes it's a worse forecast. Like when I was home on semester break, there was a snow event bfore new years. this board was going for 4-8 inches and we got barely an inch in Vernon. I actually thought you guys were going to be right cause you guys nailed the christmas snow storm. But since then, I've realized that -removed- is rampant on this board, and I take it with a grain of salt. you guys are smart weather-savy people. I'm just saying you'd be better forecasters if you could take your love for big snow storms out of the forecasting equation tats all

Ummmm WOW ......I really enjoy the board and do not think they just WISHCAST. I haven't ever seen anyone discuss any forcast for snow unless they thought there was a real reason to discuss it. Thanks to everyone in the forum for there input and thoughts on the models. I enjoy this forum and will return often!!!

[Ntxw]

Larry Cosgrove's thoughts, he mentions the next few storm systems.

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner

[katheria]

agree totally with the above statement.... by txtiff

everyone wishes now and then for something or another, snow, candy,x-mas presents ect...

nothing wrong with it IMO....

heck im even wishing for a active storm season for the spring in my area....right now...

because its incredible the amount of stuff i learn from this board each season...

ive learned more here than i have attending the skywarn class in my area for the last 8 years....

[Ntxw]

Katheria we need another good snowstorm so you can take more of those amazing pictures! Portastorm has been quiet lately, I wonder if he's been soaking in the reality of his Blizzard of AUS.

[orangeblood]

Tonight's Canadian Model coming in weaker than previous runs for Monday's system. Still not sold on a big Texas winter storm quite yet (moisture lacking) but this one looks really good for the southeastern states. Reason being - This one should bring up a ton of moisture from the gulf while bringing in the cold air from the north. Right now this system appears to have much more potential in that part of the country.

[Peanut432]

So did Sunday storm die?

[Ntxw]

Tonight's Canadian Model coming in weaker than previous runs for Monday's system. Still not sold on a big Texas winter storm quite yet (moisture lacking) but this one looks really good for the southeastern states. Reason being - This one should bring up a ton of moisture from the gulf while bringing in the cold air from the north. Right now this system appears to have much more potential in that part of the country.

Panhandle still looks good to go on the Canadian. As was stated NW, N, and Central Texas is the zone where moisture could being taken due to the intensifying gulf trough. But if somehow the numerical models are under-doing the low then of course things could turn out differently.

[Peanut432]

Tonight's Canadian Model coming in weaker than previous runs for Monday's system. Still not sold on a big Texas winter storm quite yet (moisture lacking) but this one looks really good for the southeastern states. Reason being - This one should bring up a ton of moisture from the gulf while bringing in the cold air from the north. Right now this system appears to have much more potential in that part of the country.

Panhandle still looks good to go on the Canadian. As was stated NW, N, and Central Texas is the zone where moisture could being taken due to the intensifying gulf trough. But if somehow the numerical models are under-doing the low then of course things could turn out differently.

What about SW oklahoma?

[DentonGal]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

Fort Worth NWS is inserting as a possibility in their forecasting discussion, so it's not an outrageous forecast. No one has been forecasting massive amounts of snow for this system in their "wishcasts".

Historically, it snows 2 out of every 5 years in March in DFW. It's not that uncommon.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

why do some of you wishcast so much?

serious question...its march. you need dynamic systems with unseasonably cold air for snow in march. No cold front comes through the day before. Sunday we will see temps in the 50s.

Fort Worth NWS is inserting as a possibility in their forecasting discussion, so it's not an outrageous forecast. No one has been forecasting massive amounts of snow for this system in their "wishcasts".

Historically, it snows 2 out of every 5 years in March in DFW. It's not that uncommon.

I phrased that response badly, I was trying to show support for the snow forecasts on this forum as not being necessarily wishcasts. I believe last years Denton County snow storm was in March was it not? Thats one of the more impressive storms we've had so I completely agree. I do know what he is talking about with the wishcasts, but by and large, most of the people on the board aren't too outrageous with their wishcasts, we come to this board to find other opinions and get the whole story we don't get from the official sources, thats what I like about the board.

[DentonGal]

Very well said, DFW Stormwatcher.

[msstateguy83]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

attm its looking like a weaker system for sun/mom BUT this is the type of system that we will likely NOT
have a good handle on until 24 hrs before the event if not even a little later b/c ALOT of factors
are in play # 1 being how much cold air will be here # 2 strength of the upper level low and # 3
being the exact track of it.... so this could still be a big event towards the end of sunday going
into monday...

Edit: also remember guys this is NOT just something iam blowing hot air about NWS OUN was
very concerned about the event in forecast disc about it being a possible 'snow storm' just
a day or two ago and yesterday the HPC issued a pretty strong worded disc on it in the daily
update so it is something that needs to be closely watched!

Edit 2: Sry one other thing to add if you take the models as a whole go back say 2 weeks
on the GFS it had a MUCH STRONGER system for a longer peroid of time and NOW it shows
a much weaker one that troubles me alot b/c as far back as 2 weeks ago this was on the
models showing a quite significant system for the ok/tx region of course the gulf low could
come into play and cut alot of the moisture off but this i just wanna stress could be a big
player most especially for the tx panhandle, nw tx into western and sw ok...

[DentonGal]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

attm its looking like a weaker system for sun/mom BUT this is the type of system that we will likely NOT
have a good handle on until 24 hrs before the event if not even a little later b/c ALOT of factors
are in play # 1 being how much cold air will be here # 2 strength of the upper level low and # 3
being the exact track of it.... so this could still be a big event towards the end of sunday going
into monday...

Edit: also remember guys this is NOT just something iam blowing hot air about NWS OUN was
very concerned about the event in forecast disc about it being a possible 'snow storm' just
a day or two ago and yesterday the HPC issued a pretty strong worded disc on it in the daily
update so it is something that needs to be closely watched!

Edit 2: Sry one other thing to add if you take the models as a whole go back say 2 weeks
on the GFS it had a MUCH STRONGER system for a longer peroid of time and NOW it shows
a much weaker one that troubles me alot b/c as far back as 2 weeks ago this was on the
models showing a quite significant system for the ok/tx region of course the gulf low could
come into play and cut alot of the moisture off but this i just wanna stress could be a big
player most especially for the tx panhandle, nw tx into western and sw ok...

No worries Msstateguy. I think I'm the one that initially asked about this system a week ago because I saw it being big on the GFS. Those of us that follow this forum on a day to day basis for weeks on end know and understand how models flip flop from run to run. We appreciate the information you share, as well as all the other amateur mets, pro mets and moderators. This has been an informative and educational board for me, and I'm thrilled to have been a part of it this winter season.

[jasons2k]

The fact is that this board has forecast more snow than any model or any nws forecast has for every event this year. show me one time where the models were wrong because they showed too much snow? models are only "wrong" when they don't show snow. That's a wishcast.

I would ask you and the rest reading to please do not lump every forecast you see on here as "the board forecasted X". The "board" does not forecast anything.

We allow members to post forecasts with a disclaimer and we give a lot of leeway on that.

I would just caution people to take it for what it is. Some amateurs who post, such as Don Sutherland, have a lot of experience and credibility and I'd take their forecasts to the bank any day. They put a lot of real analysis and forethought into their forecasts. They have years of experience interpreting models and analogs. Some other amateurs...who knows? They may just be shooting from the hip, basing something off the one model that shows them what they want to see, or slant something based on where they live. I'll leave it to you to figure all that out.

At the end of the day, when in doubt, trust the pro-mets. They almost always steer you in the right direction and you can be sure the outlooks posted by them are based in science and not hype.

[cycloneye]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

attm its looking like a weaker system for sun/mom BUT this is the type of system that we will likely NOT
have a good handle on until 24 hrs before the event if not even a little later b/c ALOT of factors
are in play # 1 being how much cold air will be here # 2 strength of the upper level low and # 3
being the exact track of it.... so this could still be a big event towards the end of sunday going
into monday...

Edit: also remember guys this is NOT just something iam blowing hot air about NWS OUN was
very concerned about the event in forecast disc about it being a possible 'snow storm' just
a day or two ago and yesterday the HPC issued a pretty strong worded disc on it in the daily
update so it is something that needs to be closely watched!

Edit 2: Sry one other thing to add if you take the models as a whole go back say 2 weeks
on the GFS it had a MUCH STRONGER system for a longer peroid of time and NOW it shows
a much weaker one that troubles me alot b/c as far back as 2 weeks ago this was on the
models showing a quite significant system for the ok/tx region of course the gulf low could
come into play and cut alot of the moisture off but this i just wanna stress could be a big
player most especially for the tx panhandle, nw tx into western and sw ok...

I added our disclaimer as it was needed in this post.