Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[sphelps8681]

Thanks so much for everyones input. This helps.

[txagwxman]

UKMET going snow SPS Friday and along the Red River.
In fact it is cold enough for snow in Fort Worth.

[Nederlander]

Does anyone know of a website I can go to and get weather info for long range forecast. Will be up at Sam Rayburn lake the week of March 8th. I was wanting to see what the conditions might be.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov

I appreciate that Nederlander, but it does not go far enough out. Unless I am missing something.

Sorry, I misread your post. As others have said, weather that far out is extremely difficult to forecast with accuracy. I understand you have to make plans in advance, but check it 3-4 days out and youll have a better grip on things.

Back to this new system. So exactly which system are we talking about here? There is one friday, and then one on sunday/monday, correct? Which has a better chance for wintry precip. for DFW? or are both just rain events?

Edit: I see the post above now

[msstateguy83]

i was just going to get to that txagwxman also noticed that when the nam came out it looked abit colder also further
south then prev runs.... there is alot of smoke in the air so to speak attm about these two upcoming systems but i think we have nothing to worry about likely alot of winter stuff in our near future

[msstateguy83]

i just looked at the raw readout of the gfs 06z run something tells me its off for sps its putting temps by the 10th near 75
for highs... i REALLY dont buy temps near or slightly over 60 for sat either for sps... think the temps for the late wkend event are quite high attm but we shall see....

[txagwxman]

i just looked at the raw readout of the gfs 06z run something tells me its off for sps its putting temps by the 10th near 75
for highs... i REALLY dont buy temps near or slightly over 60 for sat either for sps... think the temps for the late wkend event are quite high attm but we shall see....

msstate u going to get snow Fri, or just east of you.

[msstateguy83]

yah! more snow just what i wanted iam still afraid the late sunday system will be alot bigger
though depending on temps it could cause some serious trouble.

[gboudx]

If it doesn't help break the DFW all-time record, then keep it north please.

[msstateguy83]

liquid precip out to 132 hrs....

[Tejas89]

Decided I'm "grasping at models" as far as any DFW event this weekend or early next week. Usually the most bullish, Channel 11 still has a mix possible Monday but temps are well above freezing... Not getting my hopes up.

Accuweather extended has us finally knocking on the door of Spring the week after next.

[orangeblood]

HPC is on board.....

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
832 AM EST WED FEB 24 2010

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 28 2010 - 12Z WED MAR 03 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SW/SRN/SE US AND
POSSIBLY MID-ATLC NEXT WEEK...

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A RETROGRADING POSITIVE MID-UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY FROM EASTERN INTO W-CENTRAL CANADA. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW AN AMBIENT CLOSED NORTHEAST VORTEX TO EXIT STAGE
RIGHT OVER THE WEEKEND...YET TRAP SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY BACK
ACROSS THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. REPERCUSSIONS ARE MANY FOR ITS
INTERACTION WITH A NEARLY CLOSED CYCLONE ALOFT/STRONG SHORTWAVE
WHICH SPLITS OUT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH IN A POTENT SRN
STREAM TO NEAR 4 CORNERS BY SUN. THIS ENERGETIC FLOW/SYSTEM THEN
PROGRESSES BODILY/STEADILY EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH QUESTION MARKS WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT
DIGGING MIDWEST NRN STREAM ENERGY IS STRONG ENOUGH TO LURE THE
SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHWARD OR MERGE WITH IT...AND IF SO HOW FAR
NORTH THE COMBINED SYSTEM COULD MOVE. WITH A TWO DAY TREND
SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTH NOTED AMONGST THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS...FELT THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION WAS TO GO IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERING RATHER THAN THE NORTHERN SIDE
CONSIDERING CONTINUITY. THIS SOLUTION ADVERTISES A SNOWSTORM
THREAT ACROSS THE SRN ROCKY STATES SUN OUT ACROSS THE SRN THEN
SERN US/LOWER MID-ATLANTIC MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AS A
DECENT CLUSTER OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CLOSE OFF A VORTEX AT 500
HPA WITH HEIGHTS BELOW 5400 METERS INTO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...A
CLUSTER OF GEFS/CANADIAN MEMBERS ARE LOCATED MORE NORTHWARD OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. NEEDLESS TO SAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS CONCERNING THESE IMPORTANT SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND
INTERACTIONS OF THIS FORECAST. THE UPDATED PRELIM HPC SURFACE
FRONTS/PRESSURE AND 500 MB PROGS MAINTAIN CLOSE HPC CONTINUITY AS
PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM 50-50 BLEND OF SIMILAR 00 UTC
GFS/ECMWF...ALBEIT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE SE US COAST
INTO NEXT MIDWEEK BASED ON POTENTIAL BEST SHOWN BY ECMWF ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES WITH EMBEDDED SYSTEM
DETAILS...LARGER SCALE FLOW DEPICTION FROM THE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE ACTUALLY QUITE SIMILAR...WITH BELOW NORMAL FORECAST
SPREAD LEADING TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. THIS
INCLUDES AMPLIFIED NRN STREAM FLOW POTENTIAL...LEAD SRN STREAM
ENERGY OUT FROM SW US THROUGH THE US SRN TIER/GULF OF MEX...AND
SUBSEQUENT RELOADING OF AMPLIFIED ERN PACIFIC TROUGH ENERGY AND
ASSOCIATED RENEWED US W COAST ORGANIZED PCPN POTENTIAL AGAIN BY
DAYS 6/7. ACCORDINGLY...THE MAIN WEATHER SYSTEMS HAVE A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCE OF DEVELOPING IN A VEIN SIMILAR TO
GUIDANCE...EVEN THOUGH THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT SENSIBLE WEATHER
IS MORE UNCERTAIN.

ROTH/SCHICHTEL/RUBIN-OSTER

[msstateguy83]

saying snow storm yikes.....

edit: as i have been saying i have had a feeling this could be a "MAJOR TROUBLE MAKER" if the temps
are cool enough and being a strong enough system, tightly wound up system would bring some pretty
strong winds down to the surface which could cause almost blizzard like conditions in some areas...

[wxman57]

GFS doesn't see anything significant for Wichita Falls or the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metroplex. The UKMET looks "iffy" as well. The precip seems to end before temps get cold enough based on flipping through the maps. Euro has a more significant storm. Big question is what airmass will be overhead as it moves by? GFS did fairly well with yesterday's system.

Looking at the meteograms, below, I see nothing significant. Just quite "warm" air in both places. Sounding for Wichita Falls (GFS-based) does show sub-freezing air about 2000 feet above the warmer layer at the surface, but VERY LITTLE moisture once the air cools enough for snow aloft.

Wichita Falls:


Dallas-Ft. Worth:

[txagwxman]

Canadian hinting at some snow/sleet/cold rain Red River....for Friday.

[DentonGal]

Canadian hinting at some snow/sleet/cold rain Red River....for Friday.

So, it looks like a river Friday and not an ice skating rink? Not even possibly around the edges of the river?

[Nederlander]

How reliable is the CMC in this sort of time frame?

[txagwxman]

How reliable is the CMC in this sort of time frame?

Are u kidding...CMC has done quite well with recent snow storms...

Question remains, like wxman57 said, if the boundary layer temps will be cold enough on Friday along the Red River...cold enough aloft.

[BrokenGlass]

So that's it? Winter's over?

Hey, at least I can say I got to take my kids sledding on Christmas morning, after we opened gifts. My dad never had that chance.

[Nederlander]

So that's it? Winter's over?

Hey, at least I can say I got to take my kids sledding on Christmas morning, after we opened gifts. My dad never had that chance.

Not so fast.. DFW has a chance to pull some more snow in before the curtain closes.. Hope you guys up north get it!

[DentonGal]

So that's it? Winter's over?

Hey, at least I can say I got to take my kids sledding on Christmas morning, after we opened gifts. My dad never had that chance.

Not so fast.. DFW has a chance to pull some more snow in before the curtain closes.. Hope you guys up north get it!

I hope you're right Nederlander.