Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Nederlander]

Gfs still on track.. No major changes

[Texas Snowman]

Has anyone seen Portastorm lately? Is he warming up that leg?

Probably at the Austin weather service office screaming and yelling for a winter storm warning!

You guys are funny! LOL

No, I'm crashing early but will be up very early to see (hopefully) just how wrong my local NWSFO is with their forecast.

I'm counting on y'all to bring this storm into our state in a big way. Looks like your off to a good start!

Pulling for you Portastorm!

Sure want you to get a huge snow fix in the next 24-36 hours...and enough snowballs to be able to keep Dr. Van Pelt from messing with you any time soon!!!

[msstateguy83]

some may or may not like this comment but i say throw the damn models out this comes down to sat imagery,
radar and surface obs PEROID... iam seeing a much more significant storm system then any of the models are
showing currently...

[gboudx]

hey guys, quick question?...havent been home for 3 days because of family emergency.....and havent had internet access, went crazy and sitting here at a starbucks LOL...sorry dont have a lot of time to go back and read over the 30+ pages ive missed it seems...

whats dallas ftworth expected to get? cant get NWS to load on this connection ugh.....

TIA!!!

As of now, the NWS is showing 0.5-2" for Rowlett. But they also showed 1-3" for snowmargeddeon. So really, who knows?

[Nederlander]

some may or may not like this comment but i say throw the damn models out this comes down to sat imagery,
radar and surface obs PEROID... iam seeing a much more significant storm system then any of the models are
showing currently...

I think the gfs is actually handling it quite well.. Initialization looks good to me.. Seems to be right on track.. But I could be wrong

[msstateguy83]

anyone look @ the latest ruc it seems further north

[katheria]

[/quote]

As of now, the NWS is showing 0.5-2" for Rowlett. But they also showed 1-3" for snowmargeddeon. So really, who knows?[/quote]


thanks, wasnt even sure what they have been saying at all...dont even have a TV at her house , she dont believe in them UGH...

guess ill see tomorrow if i get to go home or not....

[Texas Snowman]

Where's that popcorn munching smiley?

It's radar WOBBLE WATCHING time!!!!!

[msstateguy83]

RUC SIMULATED RADAR


HOUR 2


HOUR 6


HOUR 10


HOUR 12

[Texas Snowman]

RUC SIMULATED RADAR

DFW would absolutely SHATTER their single season snowfall record if that were to somehow verify.

[ndale]

Austin NWS just posted update...

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADDRESS NEAR TERM HAZARDS AND TWEAK 2ND PERIOD
FORECAST. WE UPGRADED GILLESPIE COUNTY TO INCLUDE IN THE WINTER
STORM WARNING BASED ON CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN NAM12 FORECASTS OF
2-4 INCHES STORM TOTAL SNOW THERE. ALSO ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR AREAS WHERE ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED. THE ADVISED/WARNED AREA RUNS GENERALLY NORTH OF A
LANGTRY TO KERRVILLE TO JOHNSON CITY TO AUSTIN TO GIDDINGS LINE.

[msstateguy83]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
934 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
NORTH TEXAS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS OF
NORTH TEXAS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

TXZ100>104-115>122-231145-
/O.CON.KFWD.WW.Y.0004.100223T0900Z-100224T0300Z/
YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-
DALLAS-ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...BRIAR...
FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...TERRELL...KAUFMAN...
FORNEY...WILLS POINT...CANTON...GRAND SALINE...VAN...EDGEWOOD
934 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM
CST TUESDAY...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 PM CST TUESDAY.

SNOW IS SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS AND WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TRACE TO 2 INCHES WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR INTERSTATE 20. SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
SNOWFALL ENDING ACROSS THE ENTIRE ADVISORY AREA TUESDAY EVENING.

AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT SO MOST ROADWAYS WILL PICK UP A SLUSHY
ACCUMULATION. DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ROADWAYS MAY
ACCUMULATE SNOWFALL QUICKLY CREATING HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

[Weatherdude20]

[Texas Snowman]

Not sure how much is reaching the ground, but radar trends have really increased in the last hour along the Red River in southern Oklahoma...

[orangeblood]

Been out of town for the past few days and just had time to look over the model runs. You're on to something Msstateguy83 - something looks way out of sink on tonight's NAM and GFS runs. The RUC short range model has the Panhandle precip holding together all the way through southern Oklahoma and North Texas, while both the NAM and GFS dissipate the precip shield. All I know is that the RUC model handled Snowmageddon very very well. This is more than likely the model we need to follow for this event.

[serenata09]

Now how dependable is this RUC model?

RUC SIMULATED RADAR

DFW would absolutely SHATTER their single season snowfall record if that were to somehow verify.

[msstateguy83]

SNOW REPORTED IN SW OK actual reports coming in Hobart, Altus....

[Nederlander]

Ruc not likely to verify IMO.. Initialization is wrong.. (too dry).. And that precip. Will dive southeast... Dfw will catch some of this as its plunges southeast but I really would like to stress that nobody should get hung up on any one thing right now.. everything we've seen for days now shows central Texas to get the brunt of this thing.. The upper low isn't even to TX yet... By morning, see how the precip is diving..

[Ntxw]

Now how dependable is this RUC model?

RUC SIMULATED RADAR

DFW would absolutely SHATTER their single season snowfall record if that were to somehow verify.

RUC goes out to about 12 hours I think. It's very good in that it predicts in a very short time and changes accordingly as to how things are unfolding. It has a new run every hour.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

ahhh i dont know what to think anymore for us in central and southern texas...should we expect more, less, or the same amount of snow based on the 00z models and the current trends and satellite and radar?