Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[utweather]

Austin NWS is still stubborn for the city of Austin, poor Portastorm. Everyone (including places expecting precip later than Austin) have all upgraded to advisories and warnings even in S\E Texas. Travis county is still sit and wait situation lol

Maybe part political/cultural. It does seem nice today, short sleeve shirts etc, why cause alarm. Also, the people here panic and react to warnings like nothing else. Store shelves would be emptied, workers would leave early to prepare for the worse. Since its just snow and not ice, why not wait.

[jasons2k]

The climate of Amarillo has a lot more in common with Denver than Houston. It's also over 3,500 ft. in elevation up in the panhandle.

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It looks like for me this will be similar to the event we had back in December. We had snow, and it snowed heavily in some bursts, but it was just too warm for it to amount to anything.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

when will the system start turning more SE?

[vbhoutex]

This is a very large system that stretches back to W NM attm. That is more the actual area that will be developing and moving ESE. IOW, at least IMO, this is going to be a large storm that will cover most of TX before it is over and what is being seen right now is just the beginning of things to come. I'm not forecasting Snowmageddon or anything just saying what I see and some of what I have heard from OCM's and drawing on my own "skills"(as minimal as they are). If you look at the post by srain above you can see the surge racing down the front of the Rockies that is going to be starting to move this system more ESE or SE. IIRC, that surge is due into TX later this evening so we should see the "turn" beginning within the next several hours.

[msstateguy83]

vbhoutex VERY good point i have some very deep well some concerns about this system being much more
'widespread' then currently forecast IMO... time will tell but we could see the whole main body of tx in this before all is said and done THE NEXT FEW HOURS ARE CRITICAL on TRENDS OF THIS SYSTEM SO EVERYONE JUST STAY TUNED CLOSELY

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

will the amounts stay the same? just more widespread amounts?

[Weatherdude20]

This could be similar to the last system in which the area of snow formed/started earlier.

[Ntxw]

Fyi: DFW needs 1.1 nches of snowfall to break the snowiest February record of 13.5 and 2 inches for the season record if anyone is interested so lets hope we're on the high end of the .5 to 2 inches forecasted by the nws.

[gofrogs2]

Dude this thing could be huge imo just like what we see two weeks ago with all the bakc builiding and such its already starting way ahead of schedule.

[vbhoutex]

will the amounts stay the same? just more widespread amounts?

That is hard to say even this close in. But my thoughts are that the amounts are looking pretty reasonable. However, if the track of the system is further South some amounts would have to be adjusted down in the N part of the state and up In the SC and SE part of the state. I do believe that your statement is basically correct IOW. The caveat I need to add is that if we get some heavy snow banding some areas(mosty SC and E TX) could see some surprise amounts.

[hb905]

Im watching the news forecasts here in the dfw metroplex, and they say 1-2" but ive decided after the last storm when they called for 1 to 3" and we got a foot that they have no idea what they are talking about

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

will the amounts stay the same? just more widespread amounts?

That is hard to say even this close in. But my thoughts are that the amounts are looking pretty reasonable. However, if the track of the system is further South some amounts would have to be adjusted down in the N part of the state and up In the SC and SE part of the state. I do believe that your statement is basically correct IOW. The caveat I need to add is that if we get some heavy snow banding some areas(mosty SC and E TX) could see some surprise amounts.

so am i crazy to think that I will get 3 inches here in cs and my family back in sa will get an inch out of this system?

[msstateguy83]

anyone who knows weather just look @ the latest sat imagery, radar data and ruc run and tell me something isnt up??? all i gotta say is stay tuned this is gonna be a bigger then currently forecast storm i would expect *IF* trends dont change later on to see also higher amts up further north....

[Nederlander]

Im watching the news forecasts here in the dfw metroplex, and they say 1-2" but ive decided after the last storm when they called for 1 to 3" and we got a foot that they have no idea what they are talking about

The last storm had a bunch of variables that fell in to place allowing the foot of snow.. They were unsure about temperature profiles being cold enough for one. This time, we know the temperatures will be ripe, but the precipitation wont be centered over DFW like it was last time.. Forecasters cant go around forecasting a foot of snow every time, especially in Texas.. Climatology was not on their side.. Give them a break and lets see how close they are this time.. Different setup.

[Ntxw]

I don't think he's meaning we're going to get a foot of snow lol that's nearly impossible rare event we've been waaay to spoiled. Probably mean something like 2-4 inches instead of the 1-2 or how the local mets don't word it enough.

[gofrogs2]

mstateguy whats up.

[msstateguy83]

gofrogs2 - well latest radar data looking at showing the tx panhandle snow band moving more e-ward then anything with a
slight poss ese movement... also latest obs data of the upper low with sat imagery confirms this.... iam QUITE concerned now that areas NORTH OF I-20 could get a HIGHER end impact from this storm and up into nw tx and now possibly even oklahoma. this has to be watched VERY VERY closely in the coming hours for more trends on what this is gonna do but even as i said earlyer 12 hrs out on the ruc model is showing a heavy band of snow by sunrise in far nw tx by my area in wichita falls... so just stay tuned

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

msstate guy would that mean less snow here in central and south central texas, say in college station and san antonio?

[msstateguy83]

OUN thinking the same thing... get this...

000
FXUS64 KOUN 222341
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
541 PM CST MON FEB 22 2010

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS SET OF TAFS IS THE EXTENT OF THE
SNOW... AND THE MVFR-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY COME AND
GO OVERNIGHT... AND WILL BE VERY HARD TO PREDICT ACCURATELY. SNOW
NOW OVER THE PANHANDLES WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST... AND MAY AFFECT A
FEW SITES... SUCH AS KGAG AND EVEN KOKC/KOUN... THAT DO NOT HAVE
-SN MENTIONED IN THE TAF. IF SNOW DOES OCCUR AT THESE SITES... IT
COULD START AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING AT KGAG... AND AROUND SUNRISE
AT KOKC AND VICINITY. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AT THESE SITES.

[Ntxw]

msstate guy would that mean less snow here in central and south central texas, say in college station and san antonio?

No, he's talking specifically about the disturbance in the panhandle holding together more than expected. Your precip should be forming out in West Texas tonight and tomorrow.