Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[TrekkerCC]

What are we in for up here? Any possibilities of issuing a winter storm watch for us?

Nah, it appears that the immediate DFW area and the northern suburbs (Plano, Richardson) may pick up about 1"-2" of snow, possibly higher if the distrubance jogs more to the north. However, the models seem to be targeting Central Texas with the Tuesday event, and it is very likely these areas will see the greatest snow accumulations. We have additional upper level disturbances lining up to travel over the Southern US this week, and these disturbances may possibly bring another threat of winter weather to North Texas.

[hb905]

so probably not gonna be any watches or warnings for us in the dallas area?

[gofrogs2]

LOOK AT THE GFS.

[gofrogs2]

based on the gfs there should be some type of watches or wrning.

[vbhoutex]

based on the gfs there should be some type of watches or wrning.

What are the parameters used for these watches and warnings?

[TrekkerCC]

so probably not gonna be any watches or warnings for us in the dallas area?

Not at present no, but it is still possible (given how some disturbances this season have traveled more to the north (and the correspondingly models correct to the north) that a more northward disturbance might lead to watches and/or warnings being issued for the DFW area. Likely, the NWS Ft Worth office will issue a Winter Weather Advisory for the DFW area once we get closer to the event. If the 18z GFS does verify, there might be 2"-3" around the DFW area...but the 18z NAM and the 12z NAM/GFS seem to target Central Texas.

Edit:

According to this, (http://www.weatherbrains.com/special/FW ... s2008.ppsx), the NWS Ft Worth office criteria for a Winter Storm Warning is heavy snow is 4" within 12 hours and 6"+ within 24 hours. So 2-3" of snow would not require a Winter Storm Warning.

(Edited a second time to clean up some grammar and for clarity)

[Weatherdude20]

so probably not gonna be any watches or warnings for us in the dallas area?

Winter Weather Advisory appears likely, but, if the system even slightly is further north than curently expected then definatly a watch or warning will be issued.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

what about here in college station? does a warning seem likely?

[gofrogs2]

Iam talking about fort worth yeah you guy are right aobut the dallas area.

[Weatherdude20]

Iam talking about fort worth yeah you guy are right aobut the dallas area.

lol

[gofrogs2]

it drops .50 qpf on us a snow.

[Weatherdude20]

it drops .50 qpf on us a snow.

If that was a 10:1 snow ratio it would be 5".

[gofrogs2]

And thta would be warning criteria.

[Weatherdude20]

And thta would be warning criteria.

Dude you are challenged at spelling, sorry.

[Ntxw]

It's only one run. If the models (not just the GFS) depict a northward progression to precip then current thoughts could change. But as of right now, you can't base forecast on one run 18z at that. Could it change and expand the precip shield? Most definitely. Lets see what tonight's 0z says. Because DFW, Austin, Houston are so close, anyone could be fair game. The most consistent location no matter which way it jogs from the models for good accumulations is roughly from Brownwood to Waco (hence why they are under winter storm watches, that is where the most confidence is for disruptive snowfall).

[vbhoutex]

And thta would be warning criteria.

I can find nothing showing 5" for FW. Can you show us where your info is coming from.

The point here is that everyone thinks they know when warnings/watches should be issued when in fact many don't know the criteria involved in those decisions. Many are quick to second guess the NWS, etc. but don't show the goods to back up the talk. Let's all think before we make blanket statements about what should or shouldn't be done by the NWS, etc. I am sounding like a broken record, but I will say it again. Don't just state what is wrong or should or should not be done by NWS, etc. If you disagree, that is not a problem, but make a statement and back it up with links etc. and EMAIL your local NWS offices and ask them why they are not issuing watches, warnings, etc. They are more than willing to answer questions normally. We can all learn from their answers. I know I have TONS to learn still and I have been following weather longer than the majority of the people on this board have been born.
Let me make one thing perfectly clear here-I AM NOT SPEAKING TO ONE PERSON IN PARTICULAR, I AM SPEAKING TO EVERYONE INVOLVED IN THESE DISCUSSIONS.

[Ntxw]

FW, notice how close it is. Things can change this is the best consensus wise currently from FW.

One thing to note, this will be a colder situation than the previous storm. Light accumulations could pose a problem should it fall and stick.



This is from the Austin nws for Portastorm.



S\E Texas.

[gofrogs2]

http://www.ic4u-ii.net/sample/sample.shtml?text=KFTW

do the math thats aobut 3-5 inches.

[utweather]

FW, notice how close it is. Things can change this is the best consensus wise currently from FW.

One thing to note, this will be a colder situation than the previous storm. Light accumulations could pose a problem should it fall and stick.

Man, I need that area to drop about 2 to 3 counties south. I've already got the wife excited, I hope she hasn't told my daughter yet.

[txagwxman]

If the 18z GFS is right with the 2nd vort max hanging back Galveston/Freeport will even get in the action. 850 mb temps are cold enough after midnight Galveston, plus there is resid moisture in the vort max...

Austin should see 3".
College Station 3"...Longview 5-6".
Waco 5".
Hooks 1/4" --- I will take it.