Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[southerngale]

My forecast according to the NWS for Tues night.

Tuesday Night: Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind between 10 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. It will be 60% chance of rain by Tues.

I had the same forecast as you a little while ago. Look again. *poof*
Even the rain is gone now. Wow, huge change from just one set of model runs.

Just my unprofessional opinion, but I think we can fuhgettaboutit!

[southerngale]

Nevermind, sphelps8681. It's back.

I had checked yours and mine and they both had changed to sunny for Tuesday and partly cloudy Tuesday night. Now the solution from this afternoon is back. I was making a post showing the huge differences in this afternoon's forecast vs this evening's when I hit refresh and it was back. I'm getting a headache. I think I'll just wait and see what falls from the sky on Tuesday. lol yeah, right.

[Ntxw]

Here we go again, 0z GFS quickly shifts it south and is colder. Compared to 18z that is.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yep, 0z GFS back south. Now time to see what the ECMWF offers up later tonight.

[iorange55]

Further south with the bulk from DFW just a little south.


It's almost exactly like the last storm. Least the way it looks on the models. Maybe just a little colder.

[Extremeweatherguy]

For anyone interested, here is a comparison between the 00z NAM and 00z GFS at hour 84..

NAM = http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... 084l-1.gif

GFS = http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... p_084l.gif

They are similar, but the GFS is definitely the colder and further south of the two.

[Ntxw]

Soundings have air aloft of DFW well below freezing. Hmm effect on some ratios?

[Turtle]

Good GFS!

My NWS forecast just changed a bit:

1. The high on Tuesday changed from 44 to 39
2. Precip on Tuesday changed from snow/sleet to rain/snow.. went from 30% to 40%
3. Tuesday night snow chance increased from 20% to 30%

[gofrogs2]

No analysis of the new gfs it was an important run i believe but i guess all of te runs are important.

[iorange55]

No analysis of the new gfs it was an important run i believe but i guess all of te runs are important.

It looks the same. Not much difference besides it being further south, and colder. Snow storm still looks like a good bet, but the details won't be coming together till probably Sunday.

[gofrogs2]

So we could still get clocked right.

[iorange55]

So we could still get clocked right.

Indeed. Maybe not the 12 inches we're so used too. But 4-6 inches, maybe.

[gofrogs2]

Good another snowday.

[katheria]

So we could still get clocked right.

Indeed. Maybe not the 12 inches we're so used too. But 4-6 inches, maybe.

so used to??? wow if that was only true hehehe

i could handle a few 12+ inch storms a year for sure.....

[gofrogs2]

I think we could push twelve ith this one it has the potentioal to overpoerfom like we saw last.

[txwxwatcher]

Folks in SE Texas, particularly in the Houston area, should be happy with this latest GFS run. The model appears to show the precip lingering around a while for them with temperatures low enough to support snow.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

what do you guys think for the college station area snowfall totals?

[txwxwatcher]

what do you guys think for the college station area snowfall totals?

Though others may want to make predictions, I personally would hold back from guessing on specific snowfall totals at this point (especially considering the well-publicized bust for the Dallas area last go-round). That being said, the trends have been looking good for your area, and if they continue, I would be surprised if you did not see accumulating snow.

[Storm Tracker SA-CS]

yeah i hope so! the latest gfs was a good run for us and houston though.

[txtiff]

Okay so I have about 10 snowballs in my freezer (left over from last weeks storm) that my son has saved. Do you guys think it would be safe to convince him to throw them out and make room for the next batch??