SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)

[HURAKAN]

Less organized

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/0152 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [950HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 171.1W
AT 140000 UTC MOVING SOUTWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.

BANDS STILL AND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND BANDING EYE. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL
QUADRANTS. CYCLONE STILL LIES UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION WITH LOW
SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST BY ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. DVORAK BASED ON EMBD CNTR WITH W SURROUND YIEDING DT=5.0.
PT=5.0 MET=5.0. FT BASED ON PT, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.0/24HRS. SST AROUND
28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST TRACK
WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 141200 UTC 18.2S 172.5W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 85KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 19.9S 174.2W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.8S 175.9W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 95KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 23.4S 177.9W MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 140830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

Shear appears to be affecting this cyclone

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 17.5S 172.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 172.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.7S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.5S 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.3S 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.1S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 30.9S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 172.6W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PAGO-PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES
DECREASED CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A 140459Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE WHICH INDICATES A WEAKENING MICROWAVE EYE WITH EYEWALL EROSION
IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS FROM PGTW
AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH
AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL DUE TO AN APPROACHING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SHARPER DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT
ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST, HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C). BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE COMPLETELY. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 140600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 14/1508 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [940HPA] CAT 4 LOCATED NEAR 17.8S
173.1W AT 141200 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD
BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 90 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS
WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES
OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

OUTFLOW GOOD ALL QUADRANTS WITH EYE WARMING AND CONVECTINC TOPS
COOLING FURTHER . CYCLONE REMAINS UNDER A DIVERGENT REGION WITH LOW
SHEAR. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO AREA OF DECREASING
SHEAR. DVORAK BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH B EYE EMBEDED IN BLACK
SURROUND YIELDING DT=5.0. PT=5.0 MET=5.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS
T5.0/5.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 28-29C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT
12 TO 18 HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 150000 UTC 19.4S 174.4W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.0S 175.9W MOV SW AT 08KT WITH 90KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 22.5S 176.8W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 23.9S 179.0W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 142030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.9S 175.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.7S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.4S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.6S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 30.7S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 174.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST
OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW
EVEN AS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRICAL DUE TO ITS EXPOSURE
TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE CURRENT
POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 141538Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTING A SEMI-CIRCLE HIGH-REFLECTIVITY PATTERN AROUND THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF T5.0 FROM PGTW, KNES, AND PHFO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH A SHARPER DECREASE IN INTENSITY
AS IT ENCOUNTERS CONVERGENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO THE WEST, HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C). BY TAU 72, TC RENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN SOLID AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND
152100Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Nice pic

[HurricaneBill]

Poor Tonga. First the tsunami, now Cyclone Rene.

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0148 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [940HPA] CAT 4 LOCATED NEAR 19.5S
174.3W AT 150000 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST
SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST
SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. CDO STILL IRREGULAR. WARMING PAST
6 HOURS BUT RESILIENT COLD TOPS PERSIST OVER BANDING EYE. OUTFLOW
GOOD ALL QUADRANTS. CYCLONE MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR REGION,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S. SYSTEM STEERED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. DVORAK BASED ON EMBD
CNTR WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=4.5 MET=4.5. FT BASED ON
DT, THUS T4.5/5.5/W0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 151200 UTC 21.3S 175.6W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 23.4S 177.4W MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 25.3S 179.7W MOV SW AT 14KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 27.1S 178.4E MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 150830 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 20.6S 174.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 174.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 22.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 23.8S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.4S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.3S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 175.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
150557Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME ASYMMETRIC
WITH EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO
THE HOSTILE EFFECTS OF MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 15P IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS
MAINTAINED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD AND RAPIDLY
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER SST (LESS THAN 24
DEGREES C), HIGH VWS (50-70 KNOTS), AND UNFAVORABLE CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. NEAR TAU 48,
TC RENE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z AND 160900Z.
//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/0817 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [945HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 20.9S
175.0W AT 150600 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 85 KNOTS CLOSE TO
THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47
KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. TOPS COOLING FOR THE LAST 3 HRS.
OUTFLOW GOOD ALL QUADRANTS. CYCLONE MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR
REGION, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF 20S. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
EAST. DVORAK BASED ON EMBD CNTR WITH LG SURROUND YIELDING DT=4.5.
PT=4.5 MET=4.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND
27C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH GRADUAL
WEAKENING AND IN TO COOL SST.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 151800 UTC 22.5S 176.4W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 24.2S 178.3W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 25.9S 179.7W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 27.9S 178.0E MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 151430 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/1453 UTC 2010 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [955HPA] CAT 3 LOCATED NEAR 22.0S
176.2W AT 151200 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE
WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 70 KNOTS IN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE, WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

TOPS COOLING FOR THE LAST 6 HRS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO WEST AND SOUTH BUT
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE MOVING INTO STRONGER SHEAR REGION.
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE STEERED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EAST. DVORAK BASED ON EMBD LG CNTR
WITH WHITE SURROUND YIELDING DT=4.5. PT=4.5 MET=4.5. FT BASED ON DT,
THUS T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 27C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND IN TO COOL SST.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 160000 UTC 23.6S 178.0W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 161200 UTC 25.1S 179.8W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 170000 UTC 26.8S 177.7W MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 171200 UTC 28.6S 176.1E MOV SSW AT 12KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 152030 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B21 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 15/1939 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [975HPA] CAT 2 LOCATED NEAR 22.7S 176.4W
AT 151800 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON
GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS
OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 40 KNOTS IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 210 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

TOPS WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. EFFECTS OF SHEAR, COOLER SSTS
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT EVIDENT. OVERALL ORGANISATION FAIR. OUTFLOW
GOOD TO SOUTH AND EAST BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. CYCLONE MOVING INTO
STRONGER SHEAR REGION. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SOUTHWEST TRACK
UNDER NORTH TO NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN STEERING FLOW. DVORAK BASED
ON 0.7 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT=3.0. PT=3.0 MET=4.0. FT BASED
ON DT, THUS T3.0/5.0/W1.5/24HRS. SST AROUND 26C. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
ON A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TRACK AND WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 160600 UTC 24.4S 178.6W MOV SW AT 13KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 161800 UTC 25.7S 179.0E MOV WSW AT 13KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 27.3S 177.1E MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 171800 UTC 29.3S 175.9E MOV SSW AT 12KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 160230 UTC.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B24 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 16/1144 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [995PA] CAT 1 LOCATED NEAR 24.6S 179.9W
AT 160900 UTC MOVING SOUTHWEST ABOUT 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON
GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF
35 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE DECREASING TO 25 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 3 TO
6 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHEAST SEMI-CIRCLE AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN
THE NORTHWEST SEMI-CIRCLE.

LLCC SHEARED 66NM WEST FROM DG EDGE. CYCLONE STILL MOVING INTO
STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER SST REGION. SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK
SOUTHWEST UNDER A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST STEERING
REGIME. DVORAK BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN, YIELDING A DT2.5. PT=2.5
MET=2.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T2.5/2.5/W2.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE ON A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TRACK AND FURTHER WEAKENING.


FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 162100 UTC 26.1S 177.8E MOV SW AT 12KT WITH 30KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 24HRS VALID AT 170600 UTC 27.7S 176.2E MOV SSW AT 10KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 172100 UTC 29.7S 175.7E MOV SE AT 15KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 180900 UTC 31.9S 178.1E MOV SE AT 20KT WITH 25KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

THIS IS THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 24.7S 179.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 179.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 26.0S 177.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.4S 175.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 29.3S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 179.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STORM. THOUGH DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, PHFO AND ABRF INDICATE THE SYSTEM MAY ONLY BE
35 KNOTS, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED THE PRINCIPLE
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL WIND DOWN SLOWER THAN THE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES. TC RENE IS NOW TRACKING OVER UNFAVORABLY COOL WATERS
WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.
TC 15P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD AS IT
APPROACHES THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, TC RENE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO HOSTILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND COLD SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
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