NRL - 40 knots
SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B2 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/0159 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [997HPA] NEAR 12.7S 167.4W AT 110000
UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BANDS TO NORTH AND SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. OVERALL
ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM
AROUND 5 TO 10KT. SST AROUND 30C. DEPRESSION LYING UNDER DIVERGENT
REGION. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED EAST BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED 0.3
WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT2.0 PT=2.0 MET=2.0, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EASTERLY
TRACK BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110830 UTC.
Feb 11/0159 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F CENTRE [997HPA] NEAR 12.7S 167.4W AT 110000
UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 11 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON MTSAT EIR/VIS
IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 INCREASING TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL
MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
BANDS TO NORTH AND SOUTH BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND LLCC. OVERALL
ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 6 HOURS. SHEAR OVER SYSTEM
AROUND 5 TO 10KT. SST AROUND 30C. DEPRESSION LYING UNDER DIVERGENT
REGION. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED EAST BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES
BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS UNDER A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED 0.3
WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT2.0 PT=2.0 MET=2.0, THUS
T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EASTERLY
TRACK BEFORE TURNING SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WITH INTENSIFICATION.
POTENTIAL FOR 10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS IS MODERATE TO HIGH.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD 10F WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 110830 UTC.
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
WTPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100521Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 167.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 167.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.9S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 167.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO AS
WELL AS A 102002Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A WESTERLY
WIND BURST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P, WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 15P BUT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN CONCERT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100530). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100521Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 167.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 167.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.9S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 167.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO AS
WELL AS A 102002Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A WESTERLY
WIND BURST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P, WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 15P BUT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN CONCERT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100530). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
WTPS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/100521Z FEB 10//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.3S 167.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 167.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 12.1S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 12.9S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.5S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.3S 168.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 16.1S 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 17.6S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 19.1S 174.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.3S 167.2W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
BANDS. INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND PHFO AS
WELL AS A 102002Z ASCAT PASS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A WESTERLY
WIND BURST ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TC 15P, WHICH IS INDICATIVE
OF THE ACTIVE PHASE OF THE MADDEN-JULIEN OSCILLATION. THE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH A POINT
SOURCE ALOFT PROVIDING GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY STEERING TC 15P BUT
WILL GIVE WAY TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST
AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN CONCERT WITH
IMPROVING OUTFLOW DUE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 100530). MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
111500Z AND 120300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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Crostorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 2060
- Age: 50
- Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2006 3:51 pm
- Location: Croatia-Europe
- Contact:
Re: SPO : TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10F (15P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2010 Time : 075200 UTC
Lat : 12:09:37 S Lon : 166:46:25 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -86.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2010 Time : 075200 UTC
Lat : 12:09:37 S Lon : 166:46:25 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.2 / 988.2mb/ 49.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.4 3.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb
Center Temp : -86.6C Cloud Region Temp : -83.2C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B4 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1012 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [995HPA] [CAT 1] NEAR 12.2S 166.5W AT
110900 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE OF 35 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
CONVECTION PERSITENT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH
AND EAST AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. FEEDING BANDS TO NORTH WRAPPING
INTO LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 3 HOURS.
RENE IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR.
SST AROUND 30C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED EAST BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.0
PT=3.0 MET=3.0, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON AN EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 112100 UTC 12.6S 166.0W MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 120900 UTC 13.1S 166.4W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 122100 UTC 13.8S 167.4W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 130900 UTC 14.5S 168.9W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 111430 UTC.
Feb 11/1012 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [995HPA] [CAT 1] NEAR 12.2S 166.5W AT
110900 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON MTSAT
EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE OF 35 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 45 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
CONVECTION PERSITENT IN THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. OUTFLOW GOOD TO NORTH
AND EAST AND RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. FEEDING BANDS TO NORTH WRAPPING
INTO LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY PAST 3 HOURS.
RENE IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR.
SST AROUND 30C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED EAST BY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
WESTERLIES BUT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH IN
THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.6 WRAP ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.0
PT=3.0 MET=3.0, THUS T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE ON AN EASTERLY TRACK BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH
INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 112100 UTC 12.6S 166.0W MOV SE AT 05KT WITH 35KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 120900 UTC 13.1S 166.4W MOV S AT 05KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 122100 UTC 13.8S 167.4W MOV SW AT 05KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 130900 UTC 14.5S 168.9W MOV WSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 111430 UTC.
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 38
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2010 Time : 135200 UTC
Lat : 12:39:54 S Lon : 166:42:41 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 979.8mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.6mb
Center Temp : -73.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.0C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 FEB 2010 Time : 135200 UTC
Lat : 12:39:54 S Lon : 166:42:41 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 979.8mb/ 61.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.8 3.9 3.9
Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.6mb
Center Temp : -73.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.0C
Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
****************************************************
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145273
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)
WTPS32 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 12.6S 166.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 166.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 13.0S 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 13.8S 167.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 14.7S 168.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 15.5S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 17.6S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.9S 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.4S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7S 166.7W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASED IN CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. AN 110638Z SSMIS
INDICATED THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WAS DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. BASED ON THE TRACKING OF
FEATURES IN AN ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE LOOP, THE LLCC APPEARS TO
BE SLOWING AND STARTING TO TURN SOUTHWARD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL GUIDANCE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 15P HAS STARTED TO OVERCOME THE INFLU-
ENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE A SPEED
INCREASE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 24 THE STR WILL KEEP
RENE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND TAU 96 AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE STR TO SHIFT ALLOWING FOR THE TRACK TO
TURN SOUTHWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT SOURCE
ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE LLCC AND IS PROVIDING AMPLE EQUATOR-
WARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
STEADILY BASED ON THE CONTINUED GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH AN
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS TC 15P APPROACHES STRONG UPPER
LEVEL MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES THROUGH TAU 72. INCREASING INTERACTION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
CAUSING A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF TC 15P BY TAU 120. MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWED THE LOW LEVEL MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS
12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 14P (PAT) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
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Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1957 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [985HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 12.5S 166.1W AT
111800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT COLD TOPS OF DEVELOPING CDO. OUTFLOW
IMPROVING ALL QUADRANTS. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
SYSTEM NOW CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST
TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.1S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 121800
Feb 11/1957 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [985HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 12.5S 166.1W AT
111800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT COLD TOPS OF DEVELOPING CDO. OUTFLOW
IMPROVING ALL QUADRANTS. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
SYSTEM NOW CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST
TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.1S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 121800
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-
Sheronz
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 117
- Age: 39
- Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 11:05 pm
- Location: Tahiti - French Polynesia
Re: SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE (15P)
WTPS32 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (RENE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 12.6S 166.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 215 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6S 166.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.4S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 14.4S 167.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 15.3S 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 16.3S 171.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.6S 174.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.2S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.1S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
112100Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 166.3W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (RENE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TIGHT WRAPPING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND INDICATES THAT TC 15P HAS
SLOWED AND TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A 111748Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHILE
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM
PGTW, NFFN AND PHFO. TC 15P CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING AS
IT IS TRANSITIONING BETWEEN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. TC RENE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 WHERE THE SYSTEM WILL START
TO EXPERIENCE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. AFTER DAY THREE, HOWEVER,
GFDN AND NOGAPS DEPICT A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAT SIGNIFIES
THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN EQUATORWARD OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.
INSTEAD, THIS FORECAST CONTINUES THE TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE
EXTENDED TAUS, WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE UKMO SOLUTION AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PHILOSOPHY RELIES ON AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z,
120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (PAT)
WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN
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HURAKAN
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TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 11/1957 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [985HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 12.5S 166.1W AT
111800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT COLD TOPS OF DEVELOPING CDO. OUTFLOW
IMPROVING ALL QUADRANTS. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
SYSTEM NOW CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST
TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.1S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.2S 167.2W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 15.3S 169.0W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 16.3S 170.8W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 120230 UTC.
Feb 11/1957 UTC 2010 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RENE CENTRE [985HPA] [CAT 2] NEAR 12.5S 166.1W AT
111800 UTC MOVING EAST ABOUT 05 KNOTS BUT TURNING SOUTHWEST IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. POSITION FAIR BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH
ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 50 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE
CENTRE INCREASING TO 60 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33
KNOTS WITHIN 120 MILES OF CENTRE.
LLCC LOCATED UNDER PERSISTENT COLD TOPS OF DEVELOPING CDO. OUTFLOW
IMPROVING ALL QUADRANTS. PRIMARY BAND TO SOUTH WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO
LLCC. CYCLONE LIES IN AREA OF MINIMAL SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENCE.
SYSTEM NOW CAUGHT IN A NORTHEAST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW INFLUENCED BY A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK BASED ON 0.8 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIEDING DT=3.5 PT=3.5 MET=3.5, THUS T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS. SST
AROUND 30C. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN EVENTUAL SOUTHWEST
TRACK WITH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.
FORECASTS :
AT 12HRS VALID AT 120600 UTC 13.1S 166.3W MOV SSW AT 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24HRS VALID AT 121800 UTC 14.2S 167.2W MOV SW AT 09KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
OUTLOOK :
AT 36HRS VALID AT 130600 UTC 15.3S 169.0W MOV SW AT 11KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
AT 48HRS VALID AT 131800 UTC 16.3S 170.8W MOV WSW AT 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC RENE WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 120230 UTC.
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