SPO : TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F (12P)

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A13 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/0833 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [985HPA] CAT 2 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 15.8S
156.3W AT 030600 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 12 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD
BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 030458Z AMSUB PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 50 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND WITHIN 60 MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING THOUGH SOME WARMING OF TOPS PAST
3 TO 12 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING AROUND CENTRE. OUTFLOW GOOD TO
NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST AROUND 30C.
DVORAK BASED ON WRAP OF 0.8 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT3.5. PT=3.5
AND MET=3.5. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24 HRS. CYCLONE
STEERED EAST-SOUTHEAST BY WEST-NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEAR EANVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST TRACK BEFORE A SOUTHEAST TURN IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 031800 UTC NEAR 16.1S 154.9W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 50KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 040600 UTC NEAR 16.5S 153.8W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 17.2S 152.8W MOV SE 06KT WITH 45KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 18.0S 152.2W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 40KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 031430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

03/1422 UTC 15.9S 155.1W T4.0/4.0 OLI -- Southeast Pacific

65 knots

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 915
WTPS11 NFFN 031500 CCA
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A14 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/1531 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [975HPA] CAT 2 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 16.3S
155.5W AT 031200 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD
BASED ON GOES EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND 031230Z AMSUB PASS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT 60 KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE
SECTORS FROM NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST AND WITHIN 90 MILES
OF CENTRE ELSEWHERE.

DEEP CONVECTION OVER LLCC PERSISTING THOUGH SOME WARMING OF TOPS FOR
THE PAST 12 TO 18 HOURS. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING AROUND CENTRE. OUTFLOW
REMAINS GOOD TO NORTH, EAST AND SOUTH BUT RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. SST
AROUND 30C. DVORAK BASED ON WHITE OR COLDER WRAPPING OF 1.0 ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDING DT=PT=MET=4.0. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24
HRS. CYCLONE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW-MODERATE SHEAR EANVIRONMENT AND IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO AREA OF DECREASING SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
AN SOUTHEAST TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING
ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 040000 UTC NEAR 16.7S 154.9W MOV ESE 07KT WITH 65KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 041200 UTC NEAR 17.5S 153.5W MOV ESE 06KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 050000 UTC NEAR 18.3S 152.9W MOV SSE 06KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 051200 UTC NEAR 19.3S 152.3W MOV SSE 05KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 032030 UTC OR EARLIER.
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Developing an eye

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 155.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 155.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 16.6S 153.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 17.7S 153.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 18.9S 152.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.2S 151.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.0S 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.4S 146.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 27.3S 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 154.9W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE OVERALL
ORGANIZATION FOR TC 12P HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS, WITH WELL DEFINED BANDING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
BUILD OVER THE LLCC, WITH A 030741Z TRMM PASS SHOWING A DEVELOPING
MICROWAVE EYE, THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE THAT
INDICATES THE LLCC WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND TRACK MORE SOUTHEASTWARD AS
THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND TC 12P MOVES TOWARDS A COL THAT IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED NEAR BORA BORA. A DEVELOPING EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 12P WILL BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE NORTHWEST
AND TAKE OVER AS THE DOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE. TRACK SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AROUND TAU 36, AS THE STR STRENGTHENS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. A COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE SURFACE CONDITIONS AND UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, WILL ALLOW TC 12P TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL DISRUPT POLEWARD OUTFLOW; SLOWLY BRINGING THE
INTENSITY DOWN THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
031200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 70 knots

[HURAKAN]

Latest microwave

[HURAKAN]

Continues to organize

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 03/2153 UTC 2010 UTC.

FLASH BULLETIN

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [970HPA] CAT 3 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 16.9S
153.7W AT 032100 UTC MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS
POSSIBLY INCREASING TO 75 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

BANDING EYE DISCERNIBLE ON VIS/IR IMAGERIES. PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING
TIGHTLY AROUND LLCC. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH EYE NO=5, EYE ADJ=-1.0 AND BF-0.5, YIELDING A DT=4.5. PT
AND MET AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS. CYCLONE
STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM LIES IN A
RELATIVELY LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES INCREASING
SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
SOUTHEAST TURN IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AND FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 040900 UTC NEAR 17.9S 152.9W MOV SE 07KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 042100 UTC NEAR 19.0S 152.2W MOV SSE 07KT WITH 75KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 20.3S 151.5W MOV SSE 07KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC NEAR 21.8S 150.3W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 040230 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

04/0222 UTC 17.5S 153.4W T4.5/4.5 OLI -- Southeast Pacific

75 knots

[Macrocane]

Oli is the strongest tropical cyclone in South Pacific since January 2008 when cyclone Gene reached cat 3 in the Saffir Simpson Scale.

[weatherwindow]

any links on bora bora conditions..closest to oli...last report 44 nnw

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A18 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 04/0819 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F [950HPA] CAT 3 CENTRE LOCATED NEAR 17.9S
152.8W AT 040600 UTC MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS. POSITION GOOD
BASED ON GOES VIS/EIR IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO CENTRE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE, OVER 47 KNOTS
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY AROUND BANDING EYE. OUTFLOW GOOD ALL
QUADRANTS. DVORAK BASED ON MG EYE EMBEDED IN LG YIELDING A DT=5.0, PT
AND MET ALSO AGREE. FT BASED ON DT, THUS T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24 HRS.
CYCLONE STEERED SOUTHEAST BY NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. SYSTEM
LIES IN A RELATIVELY LOW-MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. CIMSS INDICATES
INCREASING SHEAR ALONG FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE
ON A SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS WITH
POSSIBLE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTS:
12HRS VALID AT 041800 UTC NEAR 19.6S 151.9W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 80KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
24HRS VALID AT 050600 UTC NEAR 21.5S 151.1W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 70KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.

OUTLOOK:
36HRS VALID AT 051800 UTC NEAR 23.5S 150.0W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 60KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.
48HRS VALID AT 060600 UTC NEAR 25.6S 148.4W MOV SSE 10KT WITH 55KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE.


THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TC OLI WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 041430 UTC OR EARLIER.

[HURAKAN]

NRL - 115 knots

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WARNING 031 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 04/1314 UTC 2010 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE OLI 07F CENTRE [925HPA] CATEGORY 4 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18 DECIMAL
7 SOUTH 152 DECIMAL 4 WEST AT 041200 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 18.7S 152.4W AT 041200 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE SECTORS
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WITHIN 480 NAUTICAL MILES IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.


FORECAST POSITION NEAR 20.4S 151.5W AT 050000 UTC
AND NEAR 22.5S 150.6W AT 051200 UTC

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 030.

[HURAKAN]

04/0822 UTC 18.2S 152.6W T5.5/5.5 OLI -- Southeast Pacific

102 knots

[Macrocane]

According to the last JTWC warning Oli has now winds uo to 115 kt that makes Oli the strongest tropical cyclone in SPO since Javier in october 2006.

[HURAKAN]

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (OLI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 152.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 152.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.4S 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 22.7S 150.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 25.8S 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.7S 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 34.0S 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 152.1W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (OLI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BORA BORA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. OLI HAS INTENSIFIED 35 KNOTS SINCE THE
PREVIOUS WARNING (NR 007). AROUND 1200Z BOTH PGTW AND PHFO ASSIGNED
A 6.0 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE (OR 115 KNOTS), CONFIRMING THE
INITIAL FORECAST INTENSITY. INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES STILL
ABOVE 26C, LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE POLEWARD BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AROUND TAU 24, VWS WILL ELEVATE AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 26C. THESE FACTORS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO HEALTHY WEAKENING PRIOR TO INTERACTION WITH A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY NEAR 29S. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN
NEAR TAU 48 AND COMPLETE BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 041200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN