DFW, North Texas, Panhandle Winter Wx***

[Weatherdude20]

Just thought the Metroplexers, North Texans, and Panhandle folks would like an additonal winter wx thread for this upcoming Winter Weather for the duration of the winter and next week.
________________________________________________

Feel free to dissucss, debate, and post reports, opinions, and forecasts on Winter Wx events.

2010 Winter in progress....

[msstateguy83]

very good idea b/c we have two other rooms one being 'southern plains' & the other being 'texas' both cover a very broad area
so i think this will give all the folks basically metroplex north one thread to come to v.s. going back and fourth between southern plains & texas one. i give it a thumbs up! as far as next week as i stated in the other thread wait, see deal however all the models are coming into agreement for several rounds of major winter storms starting next monday, possibly lasting several weeks with several chances coming our way

[msstateguy83]

should be no problems through at least saturday across most of northern tx as far as winter precip but
look for big changes though as we head towards late sunday, into monday... i will post more details,
thoughts on this upcoming system here tomorrow.

[Weatherdude20]

Thanks... Stay tuned...

[mrgolf]

MSSTATWEATHERGUY,my name is kevin.I live around memphis,tn.Ive beena member for a few months now on here.Does this next weeks storm have the potential to possibly become a big ice/snow producer for us like i think it may? Larry cosgrove seems kinda intrigued about it. Like with the last storm that affected us,the coldfront went through first,and then the precip came in. Thats how we usually get winterevents in the south.its all about timing,and low placement.So many variables and such involved.Our NWS around our area earlier mentioned possibility of winterstorm sometime next week.Just wondering your thoughts

[Weatherdude20]

Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to
noon CST Thursday...

The National Weather Service in Amarillo has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 3 PM this
afternoon to noon CST Thursday for the Texas and Oklahoma panhandles.

* Timing: precipitation will start off as rain today... becoming mixed
with snow during the mid to late afternoon hours. Once the
temperatures cool sufficiently... the changeover to all snow will
occur from west to east across the panhandles around sunset. Snow
intensities will be heaviest tonight which is also when most of the
accumulation is expected. Light to moderate snowfall should persist
into Thursday morning then tapering off by Thursday evening.

* Main impact: snowfall amounts will range between three to five
inches across the advisory area... adding to the snow that already
covers much of the panhandles at this time.

* Other impacts: travel may be become hazardous across areas where
rain is falling on existing snow and ice packed roads... resulting
in very slushy conditions. Also... isolated flooding issues may
arise where existing snow or ice may be blocking drainage areas.
After nightfall... roadways could become more hazardous when
temperatures drop below freezing and Road surfaces become icy.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Weather Advisory means that periods of snow... sleet... or
freezing rain will cause travel difficulties. Motorists should be
prepared for slippery roads and limited visibilities if travel is
necessary.

[TexasStorm]

The storm for Sunday through Monday time frame will not make it into North Texas. The GFS has us too warm during this period. The panhandle should get another shot of winter weather.

The next storm that is being talked about in the other thread for late next week will not catch North Texas either. It appears that it is going to be central and south Texas that get it then. GFS is not showing any precip in North Texas during that time frame.

[msstateguy83]

texasstorm the gfs is NOT the only model we in the meteorology business use. there have been signs on the euro, several other model sources of a MAJOR arctic blast into texas by next week however timing and precip amts are all still up in the air but i would bet by mid part of next week highs dont get above 32 for dfw area with winter precip a good possibilty in some part of northern tx.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[TexasStorm]

texasstorm the gfs is NOT the only model we in the meteorology business use. there have been signs on the euro, several other model sources of a MAJOR arctic blast into texas by next week however timing and precip amts are all still up in the air but i would bet by mid part of next week highs dont get above 32 for dfw area with winter precip a good possibilty in some part of northern tx.


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

I am not saying that we are not going to see an artic blast in North Texas. The models clearly show that. Just saying none of the models show precip for North Texas during that time frame. I just happen to use the GFS as a reference.

[msstateguy83]

none of them?? where are you looking at that says NO PRECIP for north tx?? i just looked at the 06z gfs run it showed precip the 12z is running now...


edit: models are showing several good chances of precip even deep down into central tx down around the 13th or so, another system shortly after
that but of course before we get there we have this upcoming system on late sun into mon. the models are still not totally locked in on timing and
locations so yes dallas area MIGHT NOT get winter precip HOWEVER when you have a big arctic blast expected of course you have got to watch
the precip very closely.

[rainman31]

I think its too early to tell whats going to happen the end of next week.

[Peanut432]

Anybody got an update?

[gboudx]

Check the Texas Winter Wx thread. That's where all the updates are being posted.

[Weatherdude20]

For you panhandle folks, here is the February 3-4 Winter Storm Summary...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 6&source=0



Next Monday is gonna be a close call for the metro, probably just a cold rain, then once the arctic cold gets here precip should shut off. For Northwest portions of North Texas like Wichita Falls area and Vernon your probably going to start as a cold rain then transition to a wintry mix, a brief changeover to all snow could be possible, altough I don't excpect sigifigant accumulations at this time... Panhandlers! Different story, look for a wintry mix, light rain, snow/ice then, following a change over to all snow. Accumulations should range from 1-3". 2-4" in isolated areas cannot be ruled out.

I am concerned for the entire state for next weeks storm, altough recent idications show higher temps the previously expected... Still really bears watching... Has the potential to become another major winter storm.

EDIT: I will put in the potential for a Snow/Ice event Monday night, making for light accumulations, probably not causing to much trouble. I do beleive the major accumulations will stay up North and West as close to the metro as Graham for the monday storm, but we really need to watch the laadder part of next week's storm closely.

Stay tuned...

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[mysterymachinebl]

Channel 11 here in Dallas is usually the first to jump on the snow and cold weather bandwagon when there's mention of it in the models. Next week is looking interesting.....

[Weatherdude20]

Channel 11 here in Dallas is usually the first to jump on the snow and cold weather bandwagon when there's mention of it in the models. Next week is looking interesting.....

They chagned it ! Its been tweeked a bit more in favor!

[mysterymachinebl]

They chagned it ! Its been tweeked a bit more in favor!

Let's hope that trend continues!

[Tejas89]

If you click the day tab below the Ch. 11 graphic on their site, you see more conservative forecast:

Thursday - Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s.

Thursday Night - Mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.

[Peanut432]

Anybody care to update this Thread? Is the storm late in the week going to be south of the panhandle?

[Weatherdude20]

38 and rain here. One of those days where the precip is here, but the temps arent....

I will make sure that it is clear that I have stressed the potential for flurries/light snow on the back side of todays system after the heavy rain moves out and cooler air filters in, mostly from along 1-20 northward and i-35 westward. No major accumulations are expected, but depending on how fast temps cool off, a dusting of snow cannot be ruled out. So the west side of the Metro made get their share of winter this time around! However I wouldnt be suprised if this system doesn't squeeze out and moisture on the back side. Look for temps in the Metro to bottom out around 27 tonight, possibly freezing any standing water. In the morning you should notice a strong north wind, assocsiated with the cold front.

Today for the panhandlers excpect 1-3" snow accumulations, (3-5" in isolated areas possible), and temps around whatver they are now, should be your high and droping throughtout the day. Visibilites could be poor at times, causing for a dangerous commute, there is a potential for blowing snow, however server drifting of snow isnt likely with this storm.


Northwest Texas, you guys will start as all rain mostly throughout the day and a changeover is likely later on. tempertures could prevent much accumulations though, as I don't excpect temps to dip below freezing here till the evening, so snow accumulations will be around 1" or less.(Isolated 2" totals of wet snow cannot be ruled out)

Im really confident woth the Wed night-Friday storm though, as this could be a MAJOR, and long lasting event, however I'm not gonna through everything out yet. but, models are in good agreement and consistent that a potential winter storm is possible for this entire Northern Texas Region.

Stay tuned for updates and please help keep this thread going, lol....

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.