Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Peanut432]

The 00z NAM is impressive to say the least. It drops a good 3-4" of liquid equivalent precipitation across central Oklahoma Thursday into Friday, with 1.5-2.0" of that falling in the form of some kind of wintry precipitation type over Oklahoma City. Either way you slice it (freezing rain..sleet..or snow), IF the 00z NAM verifies, this would be a major storm.

sounds like you may have not missed your oppurtunity to see record snow in Oklahoma city. Is there an updated snow totals maps from the gfs. I don't have any good links for that.

The GFS is just now running, so no map for that quite yet. The NAM should have a new map up by about now, but I am not 100% sure where to get one like msstateguy83 posted earlier (which looked like this: http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CONUS1_MESO-ET ... A_84HR.gif). Hopefully he'll post one again later.

I would like to see another one of those maps as well

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like that image actually wound up updating on its own. Here is the latest one...



Seems to be from the 6z NAM (as of 7:44am CT 1/26/10).

[wx247]

The northern cutoff on the models is absolutely incredible. This should be interesting. Watching the 12z NAM come in as we speak.

[msstateguy83]

i cannot stress enough people this situation now that we are getting closer, closer
and things are NOT changing for the better this could turn into a MAJOR,MAJOR,MAJOR
ICE & OR SNOW STORM EFFECTING TRAVEL FOR DAYS, PEOPLE BEING WITHOUT POWER FOR DAYS OR MORE... we could seriously i feel be looking at one of the most heavy snowfalls this region has ever seen and that might be an under statement! it all hinges
on if the upper level temps cool down quick enough for it to go quickly from a frz rain to snow event... all i gotta say is if you live ANYWHERE IN OKLAHOMA OR N TX STAY TUNED VERY,VERY CLOSELY!

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Precipitation types being shown by the 12z NAM (via the forecast skew-t's) for the south-side of Oklahoma City...

6am Thurs - Rain
9am Thurs - Rain
12pm Thurs - Rain/Frz Rain
3pm Thurs - Frz Rain
6pm Thurs - Frz Rain
9pm Thurs - Sleet
12am Fri - Sleet
3am Fri - Sleet/Snow
6am Fri - Snow
9am Fri - Snow
12pm Fri - Snow
3pm Fri - Snow
6pm Fri - Snow/Precipitation Ending

So basically it looks like a 5-8 hour period of icing followed by a 12+ hour period of sleet/snow if the NAM is correct.

ALSO: Using a 1:1 ratio for freezing rain, a 3:1 ratio for sleet, and a 10:1 ratio for snow, and then applying those to the forecasted 12z NAM QPF during the above timeframes, I came up with the following accumulations...

Freezing Rain = 0.75"+
Sleet = 5"+
Snow = 13"+

If these accumulations were even close to being correct, then this storm will be an absolute nightmare! I enjoy snow and ice for sure, but I don't really want that much snow or ice. We would have power outages, downed trees, impassable roads...it would be a disaster! Hopefully the NAM is way overdoing it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z GFS brings in the cold air a little more quickly than the NAM and would result in more sleet/snow and less freezing rain. I would MUCH PREFER that scenario, and am hoping it plays out.

[msstateguy83]

ewg i think if this happens it could top the christmas eve totals... way precip amts have looked on both models

[vbhoutex]

ewg i think if this happens it could top the christmas eve totals... way precip amts have looked on both models

The models sure are showing COPIUS amounts of precipitation with this storm, even in areas it will not be cold enough to snow(ugh! ). All of our N TX and OK members and even those bordering this area need to keep a very close watch on things and be sure your emergency kit is up to date now. If it peters out and nothing happens then you are ready for the next one, so everyone please get prepared and above all be safe as this unfolds.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is the initial accumulation outlook from the Norman NWS:



It is not as extreme as the models just yet, but for being 2 days out this is very impressive to see from the usually more conservative NWS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I just found a good site with detailed snowfall maps for each model. After looking at the 12z output, all I can say is wow.

12z GFS = More than a foot of snow for most of Oklahoma:



12z NAM = Large area of 2 feet+ of snow across central to northeast Oklahoma:

[msstateguy83]

koco live chat going on @ 1 pm with chief meteorologist rick mitchell koco.com

[slowpoke]

all this data is getting really hard to believe. especially with global warming and all as long as we dont get a bunch of ice if be happy to see all that snow

[BlueIce]

I am prepping the generator, firewood, and fresh water supplies now. The last ice event in the metro left me without power for 6 days. Hopefully, the data networks will stay up through the weekend. The next model run comes out in about 4 hours right?

[Peanut432]

Is the storm drifting north? The weathercast graphic the msstate is using moved the heavier snow totals substantially to north(50 miles). Do you guys expect this to continue?

[srainhoutx]

Is the storm drifting north? The weathercast graphic the msstate is using moved the heavier snow totals substantially to north(50 miles). Do you guys expect this to continue?

These are based off model data and will shift with each run.

[BlueIce]

Is the storm drifting north? The weathercast graphic the msstate is using moved the heavier snow totals substantially to north(50 miles). Do you guys expect this to continue?

These are based off model data and will shift with each run.

The 12Z NAM run is still looking quite impressive. With a solid band of precip coming across the metro Thurday night around 10pm.
http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US

New Precip map via the NAM.

[HeeBGBz]

I'm in the Branson area near the Arkansas border. We are expecting to get hammered too. I hope its not lots of ice.

[msstateguy83]

iam off to bed, modeled out for the day lol i will be here on and off for the day tomorrow posting my
thoughts. anyone with any questions, thoughts send em to my pm box and i will respond as soon
as i possibly can..

below is a trusty source to keep an eye on sometimes more reliable then any model out there

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Cobb Output based on the 00z NAM shows the following accumulations for Oklahoma City and Norman...

OKLAHOMA CITY
Snow = 2.6"+
Sleet = 1.07"
Frz Rain = 1.58"

NORMAN
Snow = 1.4"+
Sleet = 1.13"
Frz Rain = 1.83"

We better hope and pray that the NAM is wrong! Over 1.5" of freezing rain would be absolutely devastating if it verified! I really, really hope that we switch over to snow/sleet more quickly than the NAM is showing and avoid this disaster!

I will post the 00z GFS Cobb output once it becomes available. As of right now I predict, based on what i'm seeing, that the GFS output will include more in the way of snow/sleet accumulations and less in the way of ice (which is VERY GOOD).

(BTW: This is where I am obtaining the above information -> http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten ... index.html )

[Junia]

Could someone give me an educated guess at this point for Memphis, TN? Thanks!