2010 WPAC Season

[Typhoon10]

Last year was a interesting year which quite a few strong systems. How do we predict 2010 will shape up?

Am now back in HK and looking forward to my 1st T8/9/10

[Typhoon10]

No replies?

[atomic7732]

It'll probably be like last year due to this winter's El Nino.

[cycloneye]

Last year was a interesting year which quite a few strong systems. How do we predict 2010 will shape up?

Am now back in HK and looking forward to my 1st T8/9/10

No replies?

I moved the thread to this forum as for sure replies will come.

If El Nino fades as the ENSO models predict,the 2010 season will be little less active than in 2009 that had 37 Tropical Cyclones.

.

[cycloneye]

Already the Western Pacific had its first Tropical Cyclone of 2010,a short lived Tropical Depression.

[StormingB81]

There is a tropical Disturbance South East of Guam they are looking at. Crazy it is January and there is still talks of tropics.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Risk March WPAC forecast

They predict a normal season meaning an average of 24/15/8.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[HurricaneBill]

Don't seasons that follow an El Nino tend to be quieter in the WPAC?

[cycloneye]

2009 had 37 Tropical Cyclones including Tropical Depressions.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... index.html

Code: Select all

# Name Date Wind Pres Cat   
1 Typhoon-4 KUJIRA  02-07 MAY  115   4   
2 Typhoon-2 CHAN_HOM  03-11 MAY  85   2   
3 Typhoon-1 LINFA  17-22 JUN  75   1   
4 Tropical Storm NANGKA  22-26 JUN  45   -   
5 Tropical Storm SOUDELOR  09-12 JUL  35   -   
6 Tropical Depression SIX  13-14 JUL  30   -   
7 Typhoon-1 MOLAVE  15-19 JUL  65   1   
8 Tropical Storm GONI  02-08 AUG  45   -   
9 Typhoon-2 MORAKOT  03-09 AUG  85   2   
10 Tropical Depression 10W  06-08 AUG  30   -   
11 Tropical Storm ETAU  08-12 AUG  35   -   
12 Tropical Storm MAKA  14-18 AUG  45   -   
13 Typhoon-4 VAMCO  17-25 AUG  115   4   
14 Tropical Storm KROVANH  28-31 AUG  60   -   
15 Tropical Storm TWELVE  28-28 AUG  45   -   
16 Tropical Storm DUJAUN  03-04 SEP  35   -   
17 Tropical Depression MUJIGA 09-12 SEP  30   -   
18 Super Typhoon-5 CHOI_WAN  12-20 SEP  140   5   
19 Typhoon-1 KOPPU  13-15 SEP  70   1   
20 Typhoon-2 KETSANA  25-29 SEP  90   2   
21 Tropical Storm 18W  27-30 SEP  35   -   
22 Tropical Storm 19W  28-29 SEP  35   -   
23 Super Typhoon-4 PARMA  27 SEP-14 OCT  130   4   
24 Tropical Storm EIGHTEEN  27-30 SEP  35   -   
25 Tropical Depression 20W  29-29 SEP  25   -   
26 Super Typhoon-5 MELOR  29 SEP-08 OCT  145   5   
27 Tropical Storm NEPARTAK  08-13 OCT  55   -   
28 Super Typhoon-4 LUPIT  14-26 OCT  135   4   
29 Tropical Storm NEKI  20-20 OCT  55   -   
30 Tropical Storm TWENTYTHREE 26-27 OCT  40   -   
31 Typhoon-2 MIRINAE  26 OCT-02 NOV  90   2   
32 Tropical Depression TWENTY 02-03 NOV  30   -   
33 Tropical Storm 25W  07-09 NOV  45   -   
34 Tropical Storm TWENTYSIX  22-23 NOV  35   -   
35 Super Typhoon-5 NIDA  22 NOV-03 DEC  160   5   
36 Tropical Depression TWENTY 23-24 NOV  30   -   
37 Tropical Storm 28W  05-05 DEC  35   -   


[AnnularCane]

Tropical Storm Risk March WPAC forecast

They predict a normal season meaning an average of 24/15/8.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

I forgot, just for a moment, that you were talking about the WPAC, not the Atlantic.

[Aslkahuna]

Post Niño seasons in WPAC tend to start off slow and end up with fewer than average numbers overall.

Steve

[cycloneye]

It has very quiet in that basin after the Tropical Storm of mid-march.Only a invest was up since then.

[dexterlabio]

I think this season will not be that active compared to last season.

I don't know if it is just me, but it seems that whenever there is an active season, the next season coming up tends to be less severe in terms of the number of cyclones forming and making landfall. 2004 season is an active season (remarkable storms were the last 4 devastating disturbances making landfall in just a span of 2 weeks: ty unding/muifa, ts violeta/merbok, td winnie and sty yoyong/nanmadol) then 2005 turned out to be just OK for cyclones. 2006 season was also an active one, with memorable storms like paeng/cimaron, xangxane/milenyo and reming/durian, then the 2007 season became not much as active as the previous season,but there is one super typhoon formed during that year, i think it was sty sepat/egay, and it made landfall on taiwan but not on its peak strength.

[cycloneye]

Post Niño seasons in WPAC tend to start off slow and end up with fewer than average numbers overall.

Steve

Steve, I think we are seeing that evolve as April was quiet without a TC. What are the averages of named storms,typhoons and major typhoons in the WPAC?

[cycloneye]

TSR Northwest Pacific May Update=24/15/9

A almost normal season is forecast by the folks from TSR for the WPAC.

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Aslkahuna]

According to what I got off the JT site last winter the climo averages for WPAC are 31.3 warned/25.7 named/17.6 typhoons.

Steve

[KWT]

Seems to be something of a slow start out there in the WPAC at the moment though I could be mistaken, the WPAC isn't my strong point really!

[StormingB81]

Dont know if anyone posted this but Typhoons Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma) had their names retired after they both caused over 300 deaths and 1 billion PHP worth of damage in the Philippines.

[Chacor]

Their PAGASA names, I'm assuming, not their international ones.

[cycloneye]

It continues very quiet in the basin after the first storm almost two months ago.