Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[RNGR]

Good news is the 12z GFS is colder, but also drier. Does look like a widespread light snow event though. I think that's a good compromise, my fear with a heavier event is warm air advection causing the dreaded r word for MS/AL/GA(at least to start)

There is still a long way to go though. My confidence is however increasing.

only a bit drier though. with a extremely cold high sinking south and the southeast US on the N/NW side of the gulf low, im pretty confident that there is a very low chance of this being a bust. unless of course the front vanishes from the model runs completely. but i dont see that happening. using a 14:1 snow to rain ratio the widespread half inch of rain would equal about 7 inches of snow. and im sure some areas might push out 10

of course, 1-2 inches is a safe bet.

[Brent]

Good news is the 12z GFS is colder, but also drier. Does look like a widespread light snow event though. I think that's a good compromise, my fear with a heavier event is warm air advection causing the dreaded r word for MS/AL/GA(at least to start)

There is still a long way to go though. My confidence is however increasing.

only a bit drier though. with a extremely cold high sinking south and the southeast US on the N/NW side of the gulf low, im pretty confident that there is a very low chance of this being a bust. unless of course the front vanishes from the model runs completely. but i dont see that happening. using a 14:1 snow to rain ratio the widespread half inch of rain would equal about 7 inches of snow. and im sure some areas might push out 10

of course, 1-2 inches is a safe bet.

I agree, if this busts I think it'll be because of no moisture, not being too warm. I'm weary of the storm but this isn't a normal circumstance since the cold air is in already in place.

I will be watching trends closely, I would not rule out a major snowstorm yet, just don't think that's the most likely scenario. Lot of time to change though.

[Ivanhater]

I miss the runs from a couple days ago. The low moves along the coast now making it to warm for snow here. Moisture is not a problem here but now the cold air. I would like to see the low in the central gulf.

[attallaman]

Good news is the 12z GFS is colder, but also drier. Does look like a widespread light snow event though. I think that's a good compromise, my fear with a heavier event is warm air advection causing the dreaded r word for MS/AL/GA(at least to start)

There is still a long way to go though. My confidence is however increasing.

Does that confidence include the possibility of some snow for my area or only for the counties to my north? How far to the south in MS do you think it might snow? Primarily Jackson and areas to the north of Jackson?

[Brent]

Good news is the 12z GFS is colder, but also drier. Does look like a widespread light snow event though. I think that's a good compromise, my fear with a heavier event is warm air advection causing the dreaded r word for MS/AL/GA(at least to start)

There is still a long way to go though. My confidence is however increasing.

Does that confidence include the possibility of some snow for my area or only for the counties to my north? How far to the south in MS do you think it might snow? Primarily Jackson and areas to the north of Jackson?

Jackson and anywhere north of there looks in good shape.

[Brent]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
107 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2010

ALZ011>015-017>050-041910-
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-SUMTER-GREENE-HALE-PERRY-BIBB-CHILTON-
COOSA-TALLAPOOSA-CHAMBERS-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-
MONTGOMERY-MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
107 PM CST SUN JAN 3 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA...INCREASING THE RISK FOR WILD FIRES. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT.

A HARD FREEZE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COULD FALL AROUND 15 DEGREES OR LESS IN SOME
LOCATIONS. EXTRA PRECAUTIONS WILL BECOME NECESSARY PERTAINING TO
THESE COLD CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR VERY
DRY CONDITIONS.

THERE IS CHANCE OF SNOW ON THURSDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY STILL EXIST ON AMOUNTS. STAY TUNED
TO FUTURE UPDATES.

VERY COLD...POSSIBLY RECORD BREAKING AT TIMES...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$

08/MNK

[Dean4Storms]

The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Members continue with a further south over the Gulf Track and a weaker system. If this verifies we could see snow all the way down to the Coast.

[Dean4Storms]

The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Members continue with a further south over the Gulf Track and a weaker system. If this verifies we could see snow all the way down to the Coast.

I want to add something. The further south track makes more sense considering the upper pattern in place and cold air.

[Ivanhater]

The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Members continue with a further south over the Gulf Track and a weaker system. If this verifies we could see snow all the way down to the Coast.

I want to add something. The further south track makes more sense considering the upper pattern in place and cold air.

That's what I would like to see Dean. Do you have a link for the Euro?

[attallaman]

The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Members continue with a further south over the Gulf Track and a weaker system. If this verifies we could see snow all the way down to the Coast.

Snow to the coast? How much possibly? Less than an inch?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Charlotte AFD:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE MID RANGE
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GEM GLOBAL DISAGREES BY THE END OF
ITS RUN...BUT IS QUITE SIMILAR WITH ITS SENSIBLE WX OVER OUR AREA.
ALOFT...UPPER LOW MOVES CLOSE TO THE AREA CARVING A DEEP TROF OVER
THE EAST COAST THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS JUST ONE LOW AND MOVES
THE TROF AXIS OFF THE COAST WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS HAS A DOUBLE BARRELED LOW WITH THE SECOND
LOW REINFORCING THE TROF...ONLY MOVING IT OFF THE COAST BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH OVER THE AREA WED NITE
SLIDES EAST AS A GULF LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA THU
THEN ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THU NITE. MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...H85 FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY
KEEPING THE AREA FROM RECEIVING A STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE.
THEREFORE... WILL KEEP POP CONFINED TO THE CHC RANGE FOR NOW. AIR
MASS OVER THE AREA WILL BE COLD...BUT SOME WARMING OCCURS THU
BEFORE MOISTURE/PRECIP MOVE IN. THAT SAID...THICKNESSES...
NOMOGRAMS AND SREF PLUME DIAGRAMS SHOW SNOW TO BE THE MAIN P-TYPE.
GIVEN THE FCST HIGHS DID GO WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS THU AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SNOW MTNS THEN ALL AREAS THU NITE.
STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...MDL BLEND OF QPF SHOWS LOW END ADV
LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

SNOW ENDS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS FRI AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. HOWEVER...NW FLOW SNOW BEGINS FOR THE NC MTNS. THE NW FLOW
SNOW ABATES SAT...BUT RETURNS SAT NITE AND SUN AS MOISTURE AND CAA
KICK BACK IN. VERY COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. GEFS H85 MEAN TEMP REMAINS AT DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO UNTIL SLIGHTLY WARMING ON SUNDAY. THIS IS 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT ANOTHER STRING OF LOWS IN THE TEENS
AND HIGHS IN THE 30S.

I will be arriving in Charlotte late Wednesday and then am planning to head to the mountains Friday/Saturday. It continues to look like things could be getting interesting during my time there.

[Dean4Storms]

The ECMWF and GFS Ensemble Members continue with a further south over the Gulf Track and a weaker system. If this verifies we could see snow all the way down to the Coast.

I want to add something. The further south track makes more sense considering the upper pattern in place and cold air.

That's what I would like to see Dean. Do you have a link for the Euro?

No, I had just read that on the AFD from Mobile, AL.

[Brent]

A strong upper disturbance will swing out of the Rockies on Wednesday. It will undoubtedly bring some of its own moisture along, but if it taps some Gulf moisture as it is likely to do, we may see a significant snow across North and Central Alabama. Being specific about accumulations right now is just a best guess from the latest data, but 3-5 inches of snow may fall in some places. It will be followed by some of the most bitter air we have see in quite some time with single digits or even lows near zero by next weekend.

http://cfc.abc3340.com/abc3340/7day.cfm

[Ivanhater]

Very interesting disco from Mobile/Pensacola

THE LOW TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS IS ONE OF THOSE TIMES WHERE THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTER WEATHER HAS TO BE CONSIDERED. THE 00Z GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE LOW...SUGGESTING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT CRITICAL THICKNESSES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY
MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE SUPPRESSED AND WEAKER
WITH THE LOW AND ACTUALLY SUGGESTS SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALL THE WAY
TO THE COAST. THE 00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ACTUALLY LOOKS CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF. A MORE SUPPRESSED LOW TRACK CERTAINLY MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF COLD AIR LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT IT IS NOT A
CERTAINTY...ESPECIALLY IF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MORE AMPLIFIED AS
THE 00Z GFS INDICATES. TAKING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LEADS US TO
KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. WE BRING THE RAIN/SNOW MIX LINE
FURTHER SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AGAIN...MUCH
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
OCCUR AS THE NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR NETWORK BEGINS TO BETTER SAMPLE
THE SHORTWAVE IN QUESTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[Ivanhater]

Let's hear it for the 18z GFS! Gulf low further south allowing the cold air to stay in place

[Jag95]

Check this out. See the lake effect snows around the lakes? Looks like the same effect over the Gulf and off the east coast, with light precip paralleling the coast. Tampa maybe?




Mobile AFD:
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES IN THE OFFING
FOR EXXTENDED FORECAST CONTENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPERATURE MINIMA
WEDNESDAY TO APPROAC OR MAKE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTH SANTA ROSA COUNTY
NEAR THE CRESTVIEW AIRPORT (CEW). EVERGREEN AIRPORT (GZH) SHOWS A
CHANCE OF REACHING 12. OTHER MINIMA IN MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, FROM
THE INTERIOR TO THE COASTLINE RESPECTIVELY, LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE THE
APPEARANCE OF ATTAINABILITY IN THIS EVENT WEDNESDAY. WE ARE ASSUMING AT THE
MOMENT THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RH WILL PREVAIL, SO ANOTHER 2 OR 3
HARD FREEZE NIGHTS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SPEAKING OF
WHICH, RECORD MINIMA FOR JANUARY IN MOBILE INCLUDE 9, 3, AND 16
DEGREES F ON 20-22 JANUARY 1985, AND 18, 8, AND 15 DEGREES F ON 23-25
JANUARY 1963. THIS EARLY IN THE MONTH IT GOT DOWN TO 14 DEGREES ON
THE 6TH. THE REAL RECORD WAS 12 TO 13 FEBRUARY 1899 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED -1 ON THE 13TH. SOME HAVE ASSERTED THAT COLD LIKE
THIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. 1000-850
THICKNESS ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL REACH 1280 M AND 1260 IN THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. INDEED, WE MAY BREAK SOME RECORDS.


Crestview, FL forecast:
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 6. Calm wind

[lrak]

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.p ... +Statement

Corpus NWS is mostly conservative with temps so it may get a lot colder.

Oh well needed some time off from work...time to start digging up a few delicates for the wife.

[fwbbreeze]

I am in Florida right....HOLY CRAP!

Crestview, FL forecast for upcoming week from NWS

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 20. North wind around 5 mph.

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 44. Wind chill values between 10 and 20. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Monday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 14. North wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Wind chill values between 5 and 15 early. Northwest wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 9. Calm wind.

Wednesday: Sunny, with a high near 48. Calm wind becoming west between 5 and 10 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 24. North wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Northeast wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Thursday Night: A 40 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny and breezy, with a high near 43.

Friday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

Saturday: Sunny, with a high near 44.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 21.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 45.

[icicle]

From MEG

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE WILL THEN BEGIN
TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS TEXAS WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WHICH
WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WITH A DEEP COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE
AND MODEL SOUNDINGS NEARLY SATURATED BELOW 500 MB...LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL HAVE NO
TROUBLE ACCUMULATING. SURFACE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
IMMEDIATELY THEREAFTER BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO
THE MIDSOUTH.

[Big Easy]

Check this out. See the lake effect snows around the lakes? Looks like the same effect over the Gulf and off the east coast, with light precip paralleling the coast. Tampa maybe?




Mobile AFD:
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...NO CHANGES IN THE OFFING
FOR EXXTENDED FORECAST CONTENT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF TEMPERATURE MINIMA
WEDNESDAY TO APPROAC OR MAKE SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTH SANTA ROSA COUNTY
NEAR THE CRESTVIEW AIRPORT (CEW). EVERGREEN AIRPORT (GZH) SHOWS A
CHANCE OF REACHING 12. OTHER MINIMA IN MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S, FROM
THE INTERIOR TO THE COASTLINE RESPECTIVELY, LOOK AS IF THEY HAVE THE
APPEARANCE OF ATTAINABILITY IN THIS EVENT WEDNESDAY. WE ARE ASSUMING AT THE
MOMENT THAT CLEAR SKIES AND LOW RH WILL PREVAIL, SO ANOTHER 2 OR 3
HARD FREEZE NIGHTS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. SPEAKING OF
WHICH, RECORD MINIMA FOR JANUARY IN MOBILE INCLUDE 9, 3, AND 16
DEGREES F ON 20-22 JANUARY 1985, AND 18, 8, AND 15 DEGREES F ON 23-25
JANUARY 1963. THIS EARLY IN THE MONTH IT GOT DOWN TO 14 DEGREES ON
THE 6TH. THE REAL RECORD WAS 12 TO 13 FEBRUARY 1899 WHEN THE
TEMPERATURE REACHED -1 ON THE 13TH. SOME HAVE ASSERTED THAT COLD LIKE
THIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES CAN BE ASSOCIATED WITH LA NINA. 1000-850
THICKNESS ALONG INTERSTATE 10 WILL REACH 1280 M AND 1260 IN THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF THE CWA. INDEED, WE MAY BREAK SOME RECORDS.


Crestview, FL forecast:
Tuesday Night: Clear, with a low around 6. Calm wind

Looking at that model, it looks like many of the offshore rigs in the GOM will be seeing a bizarre winter storm on their platforms. Crazy!