Southern Plains winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[iorange55]

Why is NWS calling for it to blow right on through, and the models keep pushing it more east, and east? Do they think the models are wrong, or are they just talking about a glancing blow?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Why is NWS calling for it to blow right on through, and the models keep pushing it more east, and east? Do they think the models are wrong, or are they just talking about a glancing blow?

This is what the Norman NWS said in their morning discussion...

DISCUSSION...
WARMING TREND NEXT 3 DAYS AS COLD AIR MASS GRADUALLY MODIFIES.
SHOULD SEE SOME 70S IN THE SW ON SUNDAY UNDER FAVORABLE
SW/DOWNSLOPE FLOW. TEMPERATURE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS
APT TO GET TRICKY AS CANADIAN AIR RETURNS. GFS MAY BE
UNDERESTIMATING THE COLD AIR GIVEN HIGHS YESTERDAY OF -15 TO -26F
IN N CANADA AND WIDESPREAD CURRENT READINGS OF -20 TO -43F. 00Z
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR SLIGHTLY FROM ITS 12Z
RUN BUT STILL HAS IT ENTERING N OK BY 12Z MONDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION THEREAFTER. IF THIS TIMING IS RIGHT WE WILL SEE EARLY
MORNING HIGHS IN N OK AND STEADY OR FALLING DAYTIME TEMPS. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ALSO BE THE HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS. WE HAVE
UNDERCUT THE GFS-MOS HIGHS CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY... RESULTING IN
A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE... AND ADJUSTED THE 3-HR T GRIDS IN AN
ATTEMPT TO DEPICT A NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND. TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER HAS BEEN MODIFIED IN KEEPING WITH TYPICAL
ARCTIC-AIRMASS TRENDS - SLOWER MODIFICATION AND RELATIVELY LOW
DIURNAL RANGES OF AROUND 15 DEGREES OR LESS.

WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN THE SE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY FOR
SOME -RA/-DZ WITH WARM ADVECTION BENEATH A WEAK FAST-MOVING
SHORTWAVE TROF THAT IS NOW APPROACHING CA. SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS ARE
IN THE SE AGAIN MONDAY FOR -RA WITH THE CANADIAN FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OTHERWISE THE PATTERN LOOKS DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
LOW LEVELS. WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO SHAKE OUT A LITTLE -SN OR -FZDZ
BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT... BUT AT THIS POINT BOTH THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE ZERO QPF AND SO WILL KEEP POPS BELOW 15.

[srainhoutx]

Look at Midland/Odessa in morning AFD. It's a pick your poison situation for the WFO's...

A PAC FRONT IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT IT WILL ONLY
RESULT IN MAX TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. THE FORECAST
THEN BECOMES SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED WITH DIFFERENCES WITHIN THE NWP
MODELS WITH REGARDS TO TIMING OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES. WE ARE FAIRLY
CERTAIN THAT STRONGER CAA WILL IMPACT THE REGION BY AT LEAST MID
WEEK...IF NOT TUESDAY MORNING...AS A DEEP NORTHERN STREAM LOW DIGS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. A 1040 MB SURFACE HIGH IS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING. THE
ECMWF IS COLDER THAN THE GFS WITH RESPECT TO THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS...AND BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A THIRD AND FINAL SOUTHERN
STREAM VORT MAX NEAR SOUTHERN AZ/SOUTHERN CA BY MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS QUICKLY PHASES THIS WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM TUESDAY
ACROSS THE LOWER MISS RV VALLEY...BUT THE ECMWF ESSENTIALLY CUTS IT
OFF OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. AT THE MOMENT...WE WILL UNDERCUT MEXMOS
GUIDANCE BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES IN THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS. A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE PROGGED...BUT
MENTIONABLE POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED BY TUESDAY MORNING IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

Shallow Airctic Airmasses are notorious for being under estimated via guidance IMHO. We will see. I may very well be wrong.

[Ntxw]

With talk of shallow air masses and upper lows, I just hope there isn't an ice storm lurking in there somewhere.

[srainhoutx]

Austin/San Antonio added to the mix as well...

AS THE FAST MOVING 500 HPA TROF MOVES EAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IT OPENS THE GATE FOR ANOTHER WAVE OF
COLD AIR TO SPILL ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AGAIN.
MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS HAVE PICKED UP ON THIS IN THE PAST WEEK
AND THE TREND STILL SHOWS UP ON 00Z AND 06Z DEC. 11TH FORECAST
SOLUTIONS. AS A RESULT SHOWED COLDER DAYS FOR TUESDAY THRU
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. OVERRUNNING CLOUDINESS COULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK THRU NEXT WEEKEND.

[Extremeweatherguy]

In the short term, the current cold airmass has decided to stick around Oklahoma a little while longer. Originally today was supposed to be mostly sunny with a high into the mid/upper 40s, but just recently the NWS wrote a discussion revising the forecast. They are now calling for a mostly cloudy day with a high only in the upper 30s.

And so the chilly weather streak continues..

[BlueIce]

OUN seems to be on the lookout

[wxgirl69]

OUN seems to be on the lookout

I see cold air coming down, but I also see a H.. How does the High bring the cold down. I guess I always related the high with heat?? Kinda confused

[Ntxw]

In summer yes highs are heat, but in winter they are cold

[vbhoutex]

With talk of shallow air masses and upper lows, I just hope there isn't an ice storm lurking in there somewhere.

You can say that again and again!!!

[amawea]

I'm giving this a bump as I feel it supports the Teas weather thread and gives hints of what is on the horizon to our north.

[Ntxw]

I expect more and more changes to come out from the Oklahoma AFD's

[vbhoutex]

FYI, this is what is going on up to our North.

tropicana wrote:
Record Lows Sun Dec 13 2009

IN CANADA

Edmonton Int'l AIrport AB -46.1C -51F
Grande Prairie AB -44.1C -47F
Coronation AB -39.7C -39F
Kindersley SK -38.7C -38F
Lloydminster AB -37.6c -36F
Edmonton Municipal Airport AB -36.5C -34F
Moose Jaw SK -32.9C -27F

-justin-
Edmonton Breaks Cold Records

Just when it didn't seem possible to get any colder in the Prairies, on Saturday it did. Edmonton hit a record low -46 degrees.

After a weak warm up at the end of last week, Prairie temperatures plummeted again over the weekend reaching an all-time low in Edmonton.

At one point on Saturday night, Edmonton had the dubious distinction of being the coldest place on Earth. The record low temperature of -46 degrees was measured at the Edmonton International Airport. With the Wind Chill, it felt colder than -50. The city itself was a balmy -35 degrees before factoring the Wind Chill.

Edmonton's frigid temperature was exceeded by a station in Siberia where the lowest temperature measured on Saturday night was -48 degrees. Edmonton's -46 degrees was 2 degrees off the coldest temperature ever recorded for the Airport. Set back on January 26, 1972, the coldest temperature recorded is -48.3 degrees. Saturday also saw the coldest low ever recorded at the Airport in December. Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights also saw record low temperatures for Edmonton Airport.

Temperatures will continue to be frigid for the next couple of days before warming up mid-week. On Thursday, Edmonton is currently expected to reach a high of 2 degrees!

Wind Chill Warnings are currently in effect across the Prairies.

[Ntxw]

Snippet from OKC

THIS NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA THU NIGHT. AIRMASS
BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL INITIALLY BE MAINLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN.
HOWEVER BY SATURDAY... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... IT WILL
PULL MORE CANADIAN AIR SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE EVEN
COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WAVE MAY ALSO PRODUCE A BIT OF
PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF EITHER SOME LIGHT RAIN OR PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT SNOW. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT.

ANOTHER BRIEF WARMING MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS JUST IN TIME FOR CHRISTMAS.

[wx247]

This thread sure died. Thoughts on a white Christmas in the Southern Plains?

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like a decent chance of snow may be setting up for a good chunk of Oklahoma Wednesday afternoon through Christmas Eve morning. If enough accumulates, then there might even be a white christmas for parts of central and northern Oklahoma this year! Unfortunately though, I will not be in town for the storm. I will be spending the holidays in Florida with family and friends down there. Its going to suck to miss the snow for sure, but hopefully I'll make up for it later on this winter season. With an El Nino pattern in place, i'm convinced that Oklahoma will have several more shots at seeing the white stuff as we head into January, February and March.

For those staying in the Oklahoma region this week, here is the latest image being posted by the Norman NWS concerning this upcoming event...

[wx247]

I guess I should not have gotten my hopes up for a white Christmas this year. Oh well... maybe next time!

[msstateguy83]

i will post a graphic soon on my thoughts on this but this is gonna be a MAJOR,MAJOR
WINTER STORM FOR THE MAIN BODY OF OK INTO NWRN TX...

[msstateguy83]

THIS IS MY FORECASTED SNOWFALL FOR THE UPCOMING MAJOR WINTER STORM FORECAST TO HIT OK AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE THIS IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG.. FOR THE VERY LATEST CHECK YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...


KEEP IN MIND THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, IF IT ARRIVES SOONER THEN FORECAST OR LATER, SO YOU COULD SEE A SHIFT OF THESE AMOUNTS
IN ANY DIRECTION BY I WOULD SAY 50-100 MILES. NOT LIKELY BUT ITS POSSIBLE.

[BlueIce]

THIS IS MY FORECASTED SNOWFALL FOR THE UPCOMING MAJOR WINTER STORM FORECAST TO HIT OK AND PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TX LATE WEDNESDAY INTO CHRISTMAS EVE THIS IS IN NO WAY ENDORSED BY STORM2K.ORG.. FOR THE VERY LATEST CHECK YOUR LOCAL TV OR RADIO OR A NOAA WEATHER RADIO...


KEEP IN MIND THIS COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT, IF IT ARRIVES SOONER THEN FORECAST OR LATER, SO YOU COULD SEE A SHIFT OF THESE AMOUNTS
IN ANY DIRECTION BY I WOULD SAY 50-100 MILES. NOT LIKELY BUT ITS POSSIBLE.

That would be pretty awesome if it verified