Moderator: S2k Moderators
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
wgdade wrote:I don't wont to sound too negative because I love snow as much as the next but, the GFS always seems to have a winter storm, where you normally don't see snow, 10 to 14 days out in the winter. If you watch it too much is can get depressing.
wgdade wrote:I don't wont to sound too negative because I love snow as much as the next but, the GFS always seems to have a winter storm, where you normally don't see snow, 10 to 14 days out in the winter. If you watch it too much is can get depressing.
Brent wrote:wgdade wrote:I don't wont to sound too negative because I love snow as much as the next but, the GFS always seems to have a winter storm, where you normally don't see snow, 10 to 14 days out in the winter. If you watch it too much is can get depressing.
I have to agree. The long-range GFS should be used for entertainment only, not getting hopes up. If had a nickel everytime the GFS showed a snowstorm beyond Day 10 I'd be rich.
That being said, this pattern is about the best pattern I've ever seen for a widespread southern snowstorm.
But it is nice to see some activity on the board during the Winter Season. 
A frontal structure is forming over the Gulf of Mexico, and with the vigorous subtropical jet stream intersecting the front, wave cyclogenesis should occur on Friday afternoon. This feature will not produce any frozen precipitation, given the warming thermal profiles that in time will see readings back into the 70s (F) on Sunday and Monday. Nor will the rain be heavy (the heaviest downpours should line up from Beaumont TX eastward to near Savannah GA). But the dreary conditions of light rain, drizzle and coastal fog will be an issue into Saturday. Not the kind of way to start your weekend and drive to the malls to spend on Christmas shopping!
As a new batch of Arctic air builds in western Canada, temperatures should start to rise appreciably over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday. The new surge of cAk values will push rapidly south and east, however, and with deep tropical moisture in place across Texas and Louisiana, you can bet that Houston will be visited by showers and thunderstorms on December 14. Given the strength of this cold intrusion and upper air support, some of that convection could be fairly strong with heavy rains and gusty winds. Temperatures behind the front late Tuesday may near or actually drop below freezing in the Bayou City.
I believe that it is the longer term forecast that holds many challenges. We know from experience that this El Nino episode will support intrusions of Arctic air and cyclogenesis at incredibly low latitudes. And while support from the operational versions of the GGEM, ECMWF, and GFS equations is sketchy, there is no denying the potential for a troublesome stretch of weather between December 19 and 25. The storm which may turn into a massive travel headache for the eastern two-thirds of the nation will affect Houston late in the medium range, tracking across Mexico and through the Gulf of Mexico to just west of Nassau Bahamas by December 19. It is entirely possible that this system will entrain some colder air as it passes to our south, so I would not rule out frozen precipitation in Houston. But the real hazard to Texas and everyone else occurs when, and if, this feature makes the turn up the Eastern Seaboard and meets resistance from very high surface pressures and a cold dome covering Canada and the Great Lakes!
What I am getting from the computer models is that the low will close off and phase with the suppressed Arctic motherlode, leading to a giant cAk vortex over New York State. If so, heavy snow and ice will be a mainstay in the weather forecasts from GA into S QB and ME, as well as Appalachia and the Great Lakes region between December 20 - 22. The negative temperature deviations will, if the various ensemble packages verify, extend as far south as Oaxaca state in Mexico and Cuba!
Stay tuned!
srainhoutx wrote:Larry Cosgrove had some "interesting thoughts" tonight in the Houston Exmaniner...Oh and my high temp was 48 today...A frontal structure is forming over the Gulf of Mexico, and with the vigorous subtropical jet stream intersecting the front, wave cyclogenesis should occur on Friday afternoon. This feature will not produce any frozen precipitation, given the warming thermal profiles that in time will see readings back into the 70s (F) on Sunday and Monday. Nor will the rain be heavy (the heaviest downpours should line up from Beaumont TX eastward to near Savannah GA). But the dreary conditions of light rain, drizzle and coastal fog will be an issue into Saturday. Not the kind of way to start your weekend and drive to the malls to spend on Christmas shopping!
As a new batch of Arctic air builds in western Canada, temperatures should start to rise appreciably over the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. on Sunday and Monday. The new surge of cAk values will push rapidly south and east, however, and with deep tropical moisture in place across Texas and Louisiana, you can bet that Houston will be visited by showers and thunderstorms on December 14. Given the strength of this cold intrusion and upper air support, some of that convection could be fairly strong with heavy rains and gusty winds. Temperatures behind the front late Tuesday may near or actually drop below freezing in the Bayou City.
I believe that it is the longer term forecast that holds many challenges. We know from experience that this El Nino episode will support intrusions of Arctic air and cyclogenesis at incredibly low latitudes. And while support from the operational versions of the GGEM, ECMWF, and GFS equations is sketchy, there is no denying the potential for a troublesome stretch of weather between December 19 and 25. The storm which may turn into a massive travel headache for the eastern two-thirds of the nation will affect Houston late in the medium range, tracking across Mexico and through the Gulf of Mexico to just west of Nassau Bahamas by December 19. It is entirely possible that this system will entrain some colder air as it passes to our south, so I would not rule out frozen precipitation in Houston. But the real hazard to Texas and everyone else occurs when, and if, this feature makes the turn up the Eastern Seaboard and meets resistance from very high surface pressures and a cold dome covering Canada and the Great Lakes!
What I am getting from the computer models is that the low will close off and phase with the suppressed Arctic motherlode, leading to a giant cAk vortex over New York State. If so, heavy snow and ice will be a mainstay in the weather forecasts from GA into S QB and ME, as well as Appalachia and the Great Lakes region between December 20 - 22. The negative temperature deviations will, if the various ensemble packages verify, extend as far south as Oaxaca state in Mexico and Cuba!
Stay tuned!
Jagno wrote:Hopefully this time if we get any of the white fluffy slush it will at least occur in the daytime hours so that we can really see it. In the meantime, I'm enjoying another rarity.........using my wood burning fireplace more than once or twice each winter. LOL
my Cowboys my Rockets my Astros AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
325 AM CST FRI DEC 11 2009
DISCUSSION...
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARMER AIR ALOFT OVER RIDES
COOLER SURFACE AIR. A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL HELP FOCUS NEAR THE COAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THERE
IS ALSO 850 MB CONVERGENCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES. THIS
WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTH. SOUTHEAST TEXAS
WILL ALSO LIE IN A WEAK RIGHT REAR QUAD THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH
SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN LIFT. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL END
SATURDAY MORNING SO AM EXPECTING RAIN CHANCES TO END FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE DAY. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO STAY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING WHILE THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A COASTAL
TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS AGGRESSIVE WITH RAIN CHANCES WHILE THE GFS
AND NAM SHOW CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER RAINFALL. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING ENDING RAIN CHANCES. TEMPS
TODAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH RAIN AND THICK
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. A SLOW WARMING TREND SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD
OF TUESDAYS COLD FRONT. TEMPS WILL TREND COLDER BEHIND THE FRONT
AND REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DEW POINTS WILL RISE
INTO THE MID 60S. WITH WATER TEMPS NEAR 60...IT LOOKS LIKE SEA FOG
WILL BECOME A BIT OF A PROBLEM. THE NAM IS COOLER AND DRIER THAN
THE GFS SO THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER FOG WILL
DEVELOP. E-NE WINDS TODAY WILL HELP ELEVATE TIDE LEVELS. TIDES ARE
CURRENTLY RUNNING 1.0 TO 1.3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL. THE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BRISK TODAY SO TIDE LEVELS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE MORE.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED DETAILING THE THREAT. 43
&&
southerngale wrote:You know it, srain! You better be careful though... you keep this up and I'm gonna start expecting some results. I'll have to hold you accountable, ya know.
Actually, this will probably be the biggest bust ever! At least it is Winter and not Tropical though. adds fuel to the fire, stakes are quite high
srainhoutx wrote:"Every dog has his day" and just like a clock, it's right twice a day!southerngale wrote:You know it, srain! You better be careful though... you keep this up and I'm gonna start expecting some results. I'll have to hold you accountable, ya know.
southerngale wrote:A white Christmas... a white day or two after Christmas... I don't think you'd hear many complaints from the deep south on timing.... just let it snow!
Sjones wrote:southerngale wrote:A white Christmas... a white day or two after Christmas... I don't think you'd hear many complaints from the deep south on timing.... just let it snow!
Amen to that!!! I would be hoping for some serious accumulation though...hehehe....any suggestions on that? I don't want to build a handheld snowman!!!
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests
