CNN Met Orleon Sidney: Tropics have never been this quiet

[rob8303]

On CNN Live Today this morning, Orleon Sidney showed a brief graphic of the Atlantic and mentioned how nothing is out there at all. She said "Look at the GOM, the Atlantic, the ICT (or something with that sort of abbreviation). Rarely in August is it that quiet." She ssemed shocked.

Looks like the 2003 CV season is another dud.

[cycloneye]

Why you say that the CV season will be a dud? What kind of factors you see making it a dud?

You will be surprised when the CV season gets active sooner rather than later just to mention one factor to support that the MJO factor that will be negative or favorable for developments in the atlantic begginning next week.

[ameriwx2003]

Hmm.. Well I have seen seasons that have had slow Early Augusts. Things can change quickly this time of the year. Lets see how things look in about a week:):)

[mf_dolphin]

Every year people start saying "what a dud season..." Folks we're over a month away from the height of the season! There's plenty of time for trouble yet.

[JetMaxx]

Geez...what is that CNN meteorologist smoking??
We're climatologically ABOVE normal in named storms and hurricanes so far in 2003.

Sure there is a lull now....which is NOT unusual for early August. Anyone else remember 1984? What about 1998? What about 1960, 1979 and 1992???

Look at all the intense Atlantic hurricanes and landfalling major U.S. hurricanes of the past century, and see how many were "out there" before mid or even late August (answer: not many)

On August 7th 1992, the tropics were dead.....yet less than three weeks later, everyone knew the fury of Andrew. On this date in 1969...no one on the Mississippi Coast was thinking about Camille. On this date in 1935, none of those 500 people that died in the Labor Day hurricane less than a month later was concerned.

I've never seen that CNN meteorologist, but I personally think she's either off her rocker; or like many professional meteorologists I've seen, has NEVER taken the time to LEARN about hurricane climatology...or major hurricanes of the past.

[JetMaxx]

Here is a direct quote I'm reading from the 1980 NHC preliminary report on monster hurricane Allen....which tore through the Caribbean into south Texas in early August of 1980:

"A Cape Verde hurricane is rarely observed so early in August"

Allen was a "freak hurricane"....just as Audrey was in June 1957, and Lenny in November 1999. Freaks don't happen very often.

The heart of the Atlantic hurricane season lies ahead....and the Florida peninsula is so overdue for a severe hurricane it is beyond scary. :o

[OtherHD]

Rob, I agreed with you about 90L, but I have to strongly disagree with you this time. Just because it is quiet now doesn't guarantee that it will be quiet later in the month! Anyone remember early August 1999, just before Bret? It was completely dead then. A few days later, the storms kept coming...Bret, Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Floyd, Gert right after another. Or how about early August 1996? I viewed an IR loop from August 7-16, 1996, and the Atlantic looked just like it does today.

Oh, and for what it's worth, I think the CV season will be average...not stellar, but not a dead either.

[ameriwx2003]

Perry exactly. It seems every year "the the season will be dead thread "appears. Like you said and others have said, the main attarction is yet to come. Here is the 384 hr GFS, It doesn't meant squat I realize but the trend the last several runs is to show conditions becoming more favorable. Someone brought up the MJO in the Atlantic soon, the African wave train has been strong this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see this kind of map in the not to distant future:):)
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

[PTrackerLA]

Nature always seems to balance things out over time, it would be really hard to have the tropics active for the whole hurricane season. Just like if a location is below normal on rainfall it will eventually even out, or at least it seems that way.

[Anonymous]

I guess that lady didn't watch the tropics in 1998 or 1999. Around this time, BOTH seasons were just as dead...and their tally so far was 1 named storm. Then came mid-to-late August...BOOM! Could a similar thing happen this season? Certainly.

BTW, I heard one of my local news reporters say "coming up, we'll explain why this year's hurricane season won't be as active as originally thought."

When she came back on, she said something like this "Well, despite the early start, our nation's leading forecaster is now calling for a below average season."...then a few seconds later... "Hurricane season is almost over."

No, my hearing IS good...that's pretty much what she said. Oh the stupidity.

[southerngale]

Allen was a "freak hurricane"....just as Audrey was in June 1957, and Lenny in November 1999. Freaks don't happen very often.

Maybe not freak hurricanes, but I bet hurricane freaks do. I'm one!

[jabber]

I really wish we could ban the words dud season.... Folks we are going to have a lot to talk about in the next couple weeks...

[Rainband]

I really wish we could ban the words dud season.... Folks we are going to have a lot to talk about in the next couple weeks...

I have a feeling your right.. "a watched pot never boils" :o

[ColdFront77]

We really don't know if CNN Meteorologist Orlean Sidney really "looked like" when she said that it was rare not to see any activity in the Atlantic Basin in early August. I am sure she is well aware that the Cape Verde season begins August 15th.

The tropical wave we were watching until a couple days ago had potential or potential wouldn't of been indicated day after day until the point that development was not anticipated.

[rob8303]

Well, the arguments raised certainly can not be argued with. However, I would be more willing to agree with you if you could say there was a 60% chance or above that the dry air and SAL will be washed out of the atlantic and that the "wave train" will continue before say the end of August. It is too early to say this season is a dud, I absolutely agree, However, my frustration grows each passing day and that's why I made that comment about a dud season. Sorry people.

[vbhoutex]

Take a look at this IR image and tell me the CV season will be a dud. They are lined up all the way into the Indian Ocean, which is where they come from, before they move across Africa.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rmet7n.GIF

[ameriwx2003]

Rob. Its ok, every year the issue of a dud season gets brought up it seems:): and with the quick start this year I think we got spoiled:):). here are some links that show the number of storms per 10 day cycles in August( sorry the links are at the enemies website) You will notice the difference from the 1st 10 days to the last 10 days:):) and of course September is the big month:):)

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/august ... large.html

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/august ... large.html

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/august ... large.html