Major Winter Storm For Much of The W/Central US This Week.

[srainhoutx]

After our taste of snow last Friday in SE TX/SW LA, much of the Western and Central US will see a Major Winter Storm this week. A strong storm system is nearing the CA Coast. Snow and possibly record snowfall is forecast for Sacramento starting tonight into tomorrow. Snow in the Higher elevations will likely be measured in the 1-2 foot range for the higher elevations all the way S to the MX Border in S CA. Very heavy rainfall in the lower elevations and large battering waves along the Coastal Areas. The storm will track E across the Great Basin into the Mid West where blizzard contiditions are expected as the the week progresses. Accumulations in the Plains will likey approach 1 foot as well. Just an FYI for those will travel plans this week. The Great Lakes will also be affected. A lot of snow cover will be layed down all the way to higher elevations in AZ and Northern MX with this powerful storm.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[srainhoutx]

[MGC]

An increase in snow pack across the great plains will increase the chance of bitter cold reaching the gulf coast later in the winter. That along with an active STJ could provide additional opportunities for snow along the gulf coast.....MGC

[srainhoutx]

[iorange55]

Wow that'll help the snowpack

[CrazyC83]

The track I am sensing:

SE Colorado --> OK Panhandle area --> near/just south of Kansas City --> near Peoria --> near/just north of Chicago --> near Muskegon --> northern Lake Huron just east of the Mackinac Bridge

Iowa and Wisconsin look to be the hardest-hit states for the snow. Could be a freezing rain event on those areas mentioned.

[srainhoutx]

And so it begins. I see Winter Storm Warnings as far south as S CA with snow levels lowering to 1500 ft...impressive...



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/nat_hazard.php

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it should start as snow for me, then turn to rain on Wednesday afternoon - that goes against the official forecast but with the model consensus.

[srainhoutx]

00z NAM paints an "intersting picture" tonight...look at the Vort diving S...

500mb...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

300mb...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Another step down.

[HarlequinBoy]

I'm going to copy srainhoutx's idea of pasting the hazards map, because it's not too often you see such a massive area under winter weather warnings.

[RL3AO]

Should be an interesting 36 hours.

[srainhoutx]

Agreed. This track looks "interesting"... some bust potential eaither way...

[Hurricane Cheese]

They are certainly sounding the alarm up here in Green Bay! And after that Packer game and with the anticipation of this snowstorm I can't sleep for the life of me!

8-14" expected for the Green Bay and Fox Valley regions, Blizzard conditions possible overnight Tuesday.

Weather Service quoted this as being a storm you only see "once or twice a DECADE" in their overnight forecast discussion.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1


Should be a wild next 36 hours! Glad I have 4x4 drive w/ my Jeep! Let it snow, and cue up the Bing, it's White Christmas time!

[RL3AO]

NWS Twin Cities is saying 7-11 inches now for me. Its going to be the real light and fluffy stuff too. Combined that with winds of 25-30 mph and you have near blizzard conditions. Usually these types of systems dump heavier snow up here as its usually closer to freezing and there is more moisture involved.

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2214
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NERN KS...SERN NEB...NRN MO...IA...NRN IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 081722Z - 082245Z

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST FROM CNTRL KS TO THE
MID-MO RIVER VALLEY AND EXPAND NEWD ACROSS MOST OF IA THIS
AFTERNOON. SHORT-DURATION BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOW MIXED WITH
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN...SHOULD SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY INTO NRN IL BY 00Z. OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH EMBEDDED AREAS AROUND 1 IN/HR.

POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER ERN CO WILL QUICKLY EJECT EWD WITH
ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TRACKING FROM SERN CO INTO SWRN MO BY 00Z.
LATEST MODEL FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT WITH INTENSIFYING
LOW/MID-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON IN CONCERT WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN CURRENT AREAS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION OVER SERN
NEB/ERN KS/MO EXPANDING E/NEWD. MEANWHILE...DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH A PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVIER SNOW
BURSTS ACROSS CNTRL/NERN KS AND SERN NEB. 09Z SREF AND CONSENSUS OF
MODEL QPF SUGGEST SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 IN/HR WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY COMMON.

WITH ONLY A VERY SLOW NWD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE WET-BULB
FREEZING LINE /CURRENTLY FROM W-CNTRL MO TO CNTRL IL/...A NARROW
TRANSITION ZONE FROM SNOW TO SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN SHOULD PERSIST
ACROSS NRN MO INTO NRN IL...CENTERED FROM THE KANSAS CITY TO CHICAGO
METRO AREAS.

..GRAMS.. 12/08/2009


...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...
FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON 38989425 37999673 38389827 39739885 41199821 42839527
43209221 42468828 41788766 41288843 40469059 38989425

[Dave]

[Dave]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2213
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 AM CST TUE DEC 08 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W CENTRAL MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 081543Z - 081745Z

ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. THREAT FOR HAIL
MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION AND EWD ACROSS NRN LA...WITH ZONE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
INTENSE UPPER JET ACROSS THE SWRN AND INTO THE S CENTRAL CONUS.
RESULTING ASCENT -- QUITE EVIDENT IN LATEST WV LOOP ACROSS SRN AND
ERN OK/NERN TX/AR/NRN LA -- COMBINED WITH MODEST BUT INCREASING CAPE
ABOVE A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED EXPANSION
AND INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTION.

WITH STRONG FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THIS REGION SUPPORTING SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS/MID-LEVEL ROTATION...THREAT FOR HAIL
IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS SHOULD BECOME A CONCERN IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS.

..GOSS.. 12/08/2009


ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33429482 34399362 34719043 34318988 33048986 32409084
31959392 32379466 33429482

[Dave]

[vbhoutex]

This storm is turning out to be the monster that was advertised. Everyone please stay safe and report in with obs and letting us know you are doing ok.

[RL3AO]

Probably 1/4 inch so far, but its starting to snow again.