SE TX/SW LA Winter WX - 2011-2012

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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#321 Postby BreinLa » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:44 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:00z NAM does indeed look colder and implies a changeover to all snow for all but extreme SE LA, could even be heavy near New Orleans given the QPF. Looks like snow could begin before 5pm in the Lafayette area and continue for much of the night, amazing for December 4th!



So PT it's gonna be a fun Friday Night!!!!!!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#322 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:47 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:00z NAM does indeed look colder and implies a changeover to all snow for all but extreme SE LA, could even be heavy near New Orleans given the QPF. Looks like snow could begin before 5pm in the Lafayette area and continue for much of the night, amazing for December 4th!


I saw that. I hope it verifies, sorry Sean. PT i'm not sure what to think about this potential storm. Earlier in the week I thought we might get hammered, then seeing the GFS back off the cold air coming down. Tonight our local met said the shortwave will come flying through here and dry everything out. Also said the gulf low will not help because it will be too far south to throw any moisture over the cold dry air. Now as you said the NAM does look colder with a lot of moisture. Its worse than trying to figure out if a hurricane will hit me or you. :double:
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#323 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:47 pm

Winter Storm Warning Up for SW LA. NWS chat from HGX states Warnings coming shortly.
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#324 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:15 pm

Well, I'm getting ready to listen to Carl Arredondo.....he's pretty frank. Says definitely snow for the Northshore....will tell you more later.
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#325 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:20 pm

He gave a generic latest forecast....says mixed precipitation for New Orleans as temperatures "appear now," to remain above freezing. In other words---I can tell you the truth with more confidence tomorrow.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#326 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:21 pm

E-mail from Jeff tonight...

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Warning for excessive snowfall for areas along and SE of US 59 including metro Houston.

Unprecedented snow event likely on Friday.

Models have come in slightly more moist this evening and this places much of the area into warning criteria accumulations of 2 inches or more.

Expect very hazardous to near impossible travel by afternoon hours most of the area under moderate to heavy snowfall will visibilities falling to 1/4 or 1/8th mile in heavy snow bands.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#327 Postby srainhoutx » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:21 pm

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1017 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON FRIDAY...

.AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO
3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

TXZ178-179-199-200-212>214-227-237-238-041230-
/O.UPG.KHGX.WS.A.0002.091204T1200Z-091205T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KHGX.WS.W.0001.091204T1600Z-091205T0200Z/
BRAZORIA-CHAMBERS-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-LIBERTY-MONTGOMERY-
POLK-SAN JACINTO-WALLER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...
BROOKSHIRE...CLEVELAND...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
DAYTON...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HEMPSTEAD...
HOUSTON...HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...
LIVINGSTON...MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...ONALASKA...PASADENA...
PEARLAND...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...SHEPHERD...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1017 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO
8 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING LATE MORNING
FRIDAY...AND BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SNOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING BEFORE ENDING. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES AND THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST...THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN AND NOT CHANGE TO
SNOW UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...SLIGHTLY LOWER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THERE. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
TO END ACROSS THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM. SOME ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ICY
FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES FALL WELL BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 20S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST.

MELTING AND REFREEZING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES...WILL CREATE PATCHES OF BLACK ICE. THIS TYPE OF
ICE IS VIRTUALLY INVISIBLE ON THE ROAD SURFACE...AND CAN CAUSE YOU
TO LOSE CONTROL OF YOUR CAR.
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#328 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:38 pm

00z GFS indicates less precip over LA, in fact it looks like the heaviest precip/snow would be in the Leesville area of western LA, SE LA and even New Orleans. NAM paints a more evenly spread picture for south Louisiana. Time to just wait and see what happens tomorrow. Still feel confident Lafayette area will see at least see a dusting, lets get this earliest snow record broken again!
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Re:

#329 Postby crazycajuncane » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:48 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:00z GFS indicates less precip over LA, in fact it looks like the heaviest precip/snow would be in the Leesville area of western LA, SE LA and even New Orleans. NAM paints a more evenly spread picture for south Louisiana. Time to just wait and see what happens tomorrow. Still feel confident Lafayette area will see at least see a dusting, lets get this earliest snow record broken again!


It's been an interesting week with the models back and forth. I have a good feeling we are going to see snow, but the real question is how much. Last year they predicting just a light snow... nothing major and we had quite a snowfall. 1 inch in Laffy and 6-8 inches not much farther north.

TV-10 David Paul seems to think moisture is going to feed into the area late tomorrow afternoon through midnight. Rob's even calling for 1-2 inches. They all did say several times through the week that forecasting snow is best 4-6 hours out in South Louisiana.

We'll wait and see, but I definitely think we'll see snow flurries tomorrow late afternoon... colder above 1000 feet. Tomorrow evening could get real interesting. I hope we break the record. Heck 1/2 inch of snow is always welcome! I hope we see more!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#330 Postby Sabanic » Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:49 pm

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
450 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009


THE NAM AND SREF ARE THE MODELS OF CHOICE HERE AS THE GFS IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER SOLUTION. EACH RUN-TO-RUN OF THE NAM KEEPS COMING IN
COLDER AND WETTER...AND IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES OF THE WINTER SYSTEM. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS
IN...THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...MAINLY OVER GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
THE RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
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Re: Re:

#331 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:05 am

crazycajuncane wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:00z GFS indicates less precip over LA, in fact it looks like the heaviest precip/snow would be in the Leesville area of western LA, SE LA and even New Orleans. NAM paints a more evenly spread picture for south Louisiana. Time to just wait and see what happens tomorrow. Still feel confident Lafayette area will see at least see a dusting, lets get this earliest snow record broken again!


It's been an interesting week with the models back and forth. I have a good feeling we are going to see snow, but the real question is how much. Last year they predicting just a light snow... nothing major and we had quite a snowfall. 1 inch in Laffy and 6-8 inches not much farther north.
TV-10 David Paul seems to think moisture is going to feed into the area late tomorrow afternoon through midnight. Rob's even calling for 1-2 inches. They all did say several times through the week that forecasting snow is best 4-6 hours out in South Louisiana.

We'll wait and see, but I definitely think we'll see snow flurries tomorrow late afternoon... colder above 1000 feet. Tomorrow evening could get real interesting. I hope we break the record. Heck 1/2 inch of snow is always welcome! I hope we see more!


Thats what keeps coming to my mind as well. I remember that night on the 10 oclock news how much they were down playing that storm even though Houston and Beaumont were geting snow as they spoke. We were told to expect some light mix with occasional flurries with not much if any accumulations. Woke up sometime that night and looked at radar and we were under a winter wx adv. with up to an inch even though you guys in Lafayette were getting hit pretty hard. Woke up that morning to 3 inches of snow on my lawn with areas further east having 6 or more inches.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#332 Postby JSDS » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:19 am

Mike, I remember it well....listening to the radio say "no accumulation expected" as I drove from Denham Springs to Baton Rouge through heavy snowfall and plenty of accumulated snow. Down here they don't like to mention the "S" word until it's a done deal!
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#333 Postby southerngale » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:22 am

Winter storm warning issued here.


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
932 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...AN UNUSUAL EARLY WINTER SNOWFALL EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

.AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST ON
FRIDAY THEN MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
LOW WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING...
SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TURN
TO SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS....AND LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. ALL THE PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE SATURDAY.

TXZ180>182-201-041145-
/O.UPG.KLCH.WS.A.0001.091205T0000Z-091205T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KLCH.WS.W.0001.091204T1800Z-091205T1500Z/
TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODVILLE...JASPER...NEWTON...LUMBERTON
932 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR EXCESSIVE SNOWFALL...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON
FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER
IN EFFECT.

RAIN WILL CHANGE TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY...WITH
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.


TRAVELERS ARE URGED TO TAKE CAUTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW
FREEZING AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
THUS...ANY REMAINING SNOW OR MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS BRIDGES AND
ELEVATED ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY FREEZE DURING THIS TIME AND CREATE
AREAS OF BLACK ICE...WHICH IS VERY HAZARDOUS TO TRAVEL ACROSS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#334 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:25 am

I guess its because so many people freak out. They shut the interstate system down, tell city and state workers to stay home, close all gov't buildings, etc, etc. Basically shut most of the city down that isn't essential. I guess that why they wait because it could easily happen as not happen and if they go ahead and close eveything down and it does not snow that is a lot of money lost.
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#335 Postby SCMedic » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:30 am

A WSW for 1.5-2" of snow that won't even stick to the road? C'mon.


Having lived in Charleston, SC for a few years, I do know how the South freaks out when there is even a thought of snow. People stock up on food and are afraid to drive. C'mon South! Act like you've done this before. :)


(Hope you guys do get some white stuff!) :froze:
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Re:

#336 Postby CajunMama » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:40 am

SCMedic wrote:A WSW for 1.5-2" of snow that won't even stick to the road? C'mon.


Having lived in Charleston, SC for a few years, I do know how the South freaks out when there is even a thought of snow. People stock up on food and are afraid to drive. C'mon South! Act like you've done this before. :)


(Hope you guys do get some white stuff!) :froze:


People here can't drive on dry pavement!
PS...send us lots of that white stuff!
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Re: Re:

#337 Postby SCMedic » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:41 am

CajunMama wrote:
SCMedic wrote:A WSW for 1.5-2" of snow that won't even stick to the road? C'mon.


Having lived in Charleston, SC for a few years, I do know how the South freaks out when there is even a thought of snow. People stock up on food and are afraid to drive. C'mon South! Act like you've done this before. :)


(Hope you guys do get some white stuff!) :froze:


People here can't drive on dry pavement!
PS...send us lots of that white stuff!



Fair enough. :)
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#338 Postby JSDS » Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:42 am

I only wish that they had told state workers to stay home! That's why I was driving in it - we had to go to work, then when it was just about over, they decided we needed to go home.
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Re:

#339 Postby Annie Oakley » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:14 am

JSDS wrote:I only wish that they had told state workers to stay home! That's why I was driving in it - we had to go to work, then when it was just about over, they decided we needed to go home.


Gee please be safe Houston! I work for the State here in Austin...they treat us the same everywhere I guess.
First Houston gets a major Hurricane and now this.....just stay home and give wide berth to other cars if u have to go out.
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Re: SE TX/SW LA winter wx:Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow!

#340 Postby Cyclenall » Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:41 am

Advisory wrote:A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW OVER 2
INCHES WITHIN 12 HOURS IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY
HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

LOL!! This is too funny, 2 inches of snow will make travel impossible? Up here, that is a typical winter day and no one would notice any difference! :lol: Bulletins on deep south US snow events are always fun to read.

I find it amusing though the deep south is getting accumulative snow before we are, very strange! Must be the moderate El Nino at work...
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