Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[MississippiHurricane]

This afternoon, was updated to include anywhere from 1 to possibly 4 inches in spots depending if any heavy snow bands develop. The word m in moderate in the middle of the map is me . WFO in jackson is talking about maybe a heavy snow warning at this time if things keep looking better. "NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THAT AT
THE MOMENT TO RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS 2 INCHES IS OUR LOCAL THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING HEAVY SNOW
WATCHES/WARNINGS". Looking forward to the afternoon package. Im trying so hard not to jinx this but I cant help it Winter storm watches already issued for SW LA.

[Stormcenter]

Ivanhater thanks as always for posting the latest and greatest model maps. I and I know many of the others on this board appreciate it.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater thanks as always for posting the latest and greatest model maps. I and I know many of the others on this board appreciate it.

Thanks Storm. Enjoy it over there in Houston, yall look to get hammered!

[Ivanhater]

[timNms]

This afternoon, was updated to include anywhere from 1 to possibly 4 inches in spots depending if any heavy snow bands develop. The word m in moderate in the middle of the map is me . WFO in jackson is talking about maybe a heavy snow warning at this time if things keep looking better. "NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THAT AT
THE MOMENT TO RUN WITH SUCH A SOLUTION. THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY AS 2 INCHES IS OUR LOCAL THRESHOLD FOR ISSUING HEAVY SNOW
WATCHES/WARNINGS". Looking forward to the afternoon package. Im trying so hard not to jinx this but I cant help it Winter storm watches already issued for SW LA.

I'm in Covington County near the < in the blue arrow...Right in the area of moderate snow. Does this kinda remind you of the March 1993 "blizzard"?

[Ivanhater]

Winter wx advisories coming out all over the Deep South

[MississippiHurricane]

timNms: I was living in Kentucky at the time. We got about 20 inches of snow with high winds nothing like this will be lol.

[m_ru]

Ivanhater thanks as always for posting the latest and greatest model maps. I and I know many of the others on this board appreciate it.

Thanks Storm. Enjoy it over there in Houston, yall look to get hammered!

I used to live north of Houston. This makes me temporarily ticked off at myself for moving. I hope the Nam is accurate. I despise ordinary winters.

[Ivanhater]

Mobile/Pensacola AFD

THE NAM AND SREF ARE THE MODELS OF CHOICE HERE AS THE GFS IS HAVING
A DIFFICULT TIME WITH THE MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...RESULTING IN DRIER
AND WARMER SOLUTION. EACH RUN-TO-RUN OF THE NAM KEEPS COMING IN
COLDER AND WETTER...AND IS BEGINNING TO RESOLVE THE MESOSCALE
FEATURES OF THE WINTER SYSTEM. AS THE COLDER AIRMASS FILTERS
IN...THE RAIN WILL START TO TRANSITION TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA BEFORE MIDNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES...MAINLY OVER GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE RAIN MAY
BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

[SunnyThoughts]

Will definitely be up late tomorrow trying to pick out a snow flake or a sleet pellet from the rain lol Fun stuff for so early in the season.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ivanhater, question for you or anyone else that cares to answer. The lastest forecast calls for an inch around SE LA with a low around 32 friday night where I live. Latest GFS snowfall map I saw only shows a dusting to maybe half an inch around here. Question is Houston forecasts keeps getting colder and colder with more and more snow. Wouldn't that translate for the same solution 300 miles due east of there for us if the system is getting stronger? Of course the NWS here goes by the GFS religiously so I guess things could change.

[Ivanhater]

Ivanhater, question for you or anyone else that cares to answer. The lastest forecast calls for an inch around SE LA with a low around 32 friday night where I live. Latest GFS snowfall map I saw only shows a dusting to maybe half an inch around here. Question is Houston forecasts keeps getting colder and colder with more and more snow. Wouldn't that translate for the same solution 300 miles due east of there for us if the system is getting stronger? Of course the NWS here goes by the GFS religiously so I guess things could change.

After reading the Mobile/Pensacola AFD it seems the GFS model is having problems with this system and they decided to go with the NAM which is wetter and colder. I would lean toward that and higher amounts for your area.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Thanks. Guess its just wait and see. Looking the the maps you posted of the NAM earlier if that were to verify sure looks like a big hit for us over here. Is that what Houston's NWS is going by to change their forecast for colder temps and more snow? Any word on the gulf low? Strong/weaker, same track?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Wow, it got awfully quiet on here for such a rare winter storm to be just a day away. Anyway I know this has been asked millions of times but I am suffering from mild alzheimers tonight When does the next set of model runs come out? I can't remeber to save my life. Just give me the four times throughout the day to make it easier. Thanks.

[TideJoe]

Wow, it got awfully quiet on here for such a rare winter storm to be just a day away. Anyway I know this has been asked millions of times but I am suffering from mild alzheimers tonight When does the next set of model runs come out? I can't remeber to save my life. Just give me the four times throughout the day to make it easier. Thanks.

I'm pretty excited. I'm in south central MS and the NWS is saying we could see 1-3" tomorrow night. I think I'm going to chill in the hot tub and watch the snow with the Mrs and then play in the morning with my young'n.

[SunnyThoughts]

TideJoe, that sounds absolutely fantastic! Have a wonderful time with your family. Enjoy the white stuff!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Could anyone please give the times when the models come out throughout the day? Just can't remeber. Thanks.

[SunnyThoughts]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
559 PM CST THU DEC 3 2009


THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 12 CORRIDOR AND
WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX MAY START
AS EARLY AS 3 PM WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY 6 PM. ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AND THROUGH THE RIVER PARISHES...A RAIN
SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED BY AROUND 9 PM WITH A POTENTIAL CHANGE OVER
TO ALL SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE AREA OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...A RAIN AND SNOW MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING
AROUND 9 PM AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATION
WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM DONALDSONVILLE
LOUISIANA TO SAUCIER MISSISSIPPI. WINTRY PRECIPITATION CAN ALSO
FREEZE ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS LEADING TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THAT ARE GENERALLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 12. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND ST. TAMMANY PARISH.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

According to that sounds like the snow could be coming further south than most OCM's had previoulsy said.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting disco about the problems the GFS is having.

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WITH SNOWFALL TOTALS AND NORTHWARD
EXTENT OF SNOW. THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY TIED TO THE
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...FOR WHICH NWP GUIDANCE IS STILL
EXPERIENCING MODEST SPREAD. THE LATEST NAM/EC TAKE THE LOW ON A
NORTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST GULF WHILE
DEEPENING THE LOW AT ABOUT 1 MB PER 6 HOURS...WHILE THE OPERATIONAL
GFS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK TOWARD WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
LITTLE CYCLOGENESIS. THE UKMET AND CMC FOLLOW SIMILAR TRACKS AS THE
NAM/EC COMBINATION. GIVEN BETTER CONSENSUS THAT THE GFS COULD BE
SUFFERING FROM GRID-SCALE FEEDBACK ISSUES OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF...THUS FORCING STRONGER ASCENT AND ITS OWN TRACK FURTHER SOUTH
AS WHAT WAS SEEN WITH THE PREVIOUS GULF LOW...THE MORE NORTHERLY LOW
TRACK WITH SLOW DEEPENING IS THE PREFERRED SOLUTION. THE IMPLICATION
FOR THE FORECAST IS FOR GREATER AMOUNTS OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BE ADVECTED FURTHER NORTHWARD THAN WHAT THE GFS DEPICTS...ALONG WITH
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SNOW.