Wave with surface low off africa will it be the spark to CV?

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145327
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Wave with surface low off africa will it be the spark to CV?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 07, 2003 6:43 am

http://www.storm2k.org/Weather-Central/ ... lantic.htm

There is a closed low at 13n with this wave but dry air is not letting convection develop but let's follow it as it moves west to see if it gets ideal conditions or we will have more quiet days.Maybe the megabomb wave behind this one will be the spark but time will tell.

Here are the Senegal observations: :darrow: :darrow: :darrow:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html
Last edited by cycloneye on Thu Aug 07, 2003 7:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2146
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#2 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 07, 2003 6:57 am

Yeah looks impressive on sat loops. Needs to pull moisture up from the ITCZ. Not going to judge things by Gray's numbers, I just look at what's there. UKMET likes this wave, but like you said , maybe it will pave the way for the one behind it. Yeah, I busted on 90L. Really thought that would spin. BTW, NOGAPS is showing a TD east of the Windwards at 120. We watch. Cheers!!
0 likes   
Top
Tip
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 325
Joined: Fri May 30, 2003 7:31 am

QSCAT

#3 Postby Tip » Thu Aug 07, 2003 7:27 am

Nice spin on the wave coming off of Africa. Also, a 1008mil low associated with it.

http://manati.wwb.noaa.gov/ocean_image2 ... atl_12.png

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

We'll see if this can break through the high pressure/ dry air jinx.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
vbhoutex
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 29112
Age: 73
Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
Location: Cypress, TX
Contact:
Contact vbhoutex

#4 Postby vbhoutex » Thu Aug 07, 2003 8:07 am

That is th ebest signature of a LLCC we have seen in a while on a Quikscat scan!!! It will be interesting to see of this one can beat the dry air. Needs tha ITCZ moisutre BAD if it is to do anything.
0 likes   
Skywarn, C.E.R.T.
Please click below to donate to STORM2K to help with the expenses of keeping the site going:
Image
Top
rainstorm

#5 Postby rainstorm » Thu Aug 07, 2003 8:43 am

as long as the euopean heat ridge is in place, they wont do much, too dry.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#6 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:30 am

The temperature/dewpoint couplet remind me of home.

86º/99º/78º Dewpoint

Anyway, NOAA just released their updated outlook ... will post in a new thread.

SF
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Colin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5086
Joined: Fri Apr 18, 2003 4:17 pm
Location: Catasauqua, PA
Contact:
Contact Colin

#7 Postby Colin » Thu Aug 07, 2003 9:37 am

We'll see what happens with this...but I don't think it'll develop ATTM ... too much dry air.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#8 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 11:19 am

Colin wrote:We'll see what happens with this...but I don't think it'll develop ATTM ... too much dry air.


This one may lay the work for the next one poised to come off in the next 2 days or so.

The MJO is heading back into a neg phase and that should increase moisture across the Tropical Atlantic.

SF
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#9 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:02 pm

What evidence do we have that the MJO is shifftng? I dont have much knowlege in that
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#10 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:06 pm

chadtm80 wrote:What evidence do we have that the MJO is shifftng? I dont have much knowlege in that


Take a look at the MJO thread started by Ticka, Chad. I posted the link for the CPC site there.

SF
0 likes   
Top
chadtm80

#11 Postby chadtm80 » Thu Aug 07, 2003 12:07 pm

Thanks SF
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#12 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 07, 2003 1:49 pm

Come on convection and MJO! Die SAL!
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 25 guests