Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[wxman22]

0z GFS still shows snow event...! and now even the 0z NAM & GFS look almost identical at 84hrs...
(GFS)


(NAM)

[iorange55]

Second year in a row where houston sees more snow than Dallas....yay pfft.

[joshskeety]

SJT says.. PARTIES OVER..

.DISCUSSION...

THERE ARE NO UPDATES PLANNED OTHER THAN TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
LOWS...AND THERE WILL BE NO HEADLINES ISSUED AS WELL. AFTER
LOOKING AT THE NEW 00Z NAM DATA...CONFIDENCE IS DECLINING THAT
THERE WILL BE ANY SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP OVER WEST CENTRAL TX
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE 00Z NAM AGREES QUITE WELL WITH
THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS I AM
CONFIDENT THAT ITS LOW LVL TEMP PROFILE CAN BE TRUSTED.

NOW TO THE FORECAST. THE FIRST AND MOST SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF
PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATE TONIGHT EARLY TUESDAY AS THE WARM CONVEYOR
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING UPPER LOW SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
FIRST ROUND SHOULD BE RAIN FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT MY FAR WESTERN
TIER OF COUNTIES WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE. AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE 500MB LOW TRACK...WILL LIKELY GET DRY-
SLOTTED WITH A QUICK END TO THE PRECIP. THEN AS THE UPPER LOW
TRACKS ACROSS THE HEARTLAND AND THEN INTO EAST CENTRAL TX TUESDAY
NIGHT...A BAND OF WRAPAROUND PRECIP IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY. THE 00Z NAM AGREES MORE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET
AND SUGGEST THAT THE AXIS OF HIGHEST PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE OVER
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND EXTEND SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN BIG
COUNTRY. THE 00Z NAM LOW LEVEL PROFILES HAVE TRENDED WARMER THAN
IN PREVIOUS RUNS...SUGGESTING SFC TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR
40 WHEN THIS PRECIP IS OCCURRING. THIS IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW
AND THUS THE CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACCUMULATION IS DECREASING. RIGHT
NOW IT APPEARS THAT THE AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS JUST
NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER PRECIP IN THE SAN ANGELO
FORECAST AREA.

THE WRAPAROUND PRECIP WILL BE SHIFTING EAST RAPIDLY OUT OF WEST
CENTRAL TX AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES QUICKLY OFF
TO THE EAST.

THE NEXT FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE OUT AROUND 4 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

[vbhoutex]

Second year in a row where houston sees more snow than Dallas....yay pfft.

We haven't seen any yet and even though the models are coming into agreement I will wait at least 24 more hours to start getting some excitement into my thinking that it may happen. As any in the SE TX area know A LOT has to happen all at the same time for us to get any snow. I do have to admit I am finding the agreement showing among the models somewhat surprising even this close in.

[iorange55]

That high is looking like it's building even stronger according to the GFS 00 that's going to be a major high if it pans out. So maybe we'll have another chance sometime in the next few weeks.



Looks like if this thing does happen later in the week San Antonio would even see snow which would make one of my friends VERY happy who has never seen snow before down there.

[joshskeety]

I still think the SJT mets are going to be in a world of hurt using the NAM MOS for temp guidance..

This is the same NAM MOS that said El Paso was supposed to not change over until TONIGHT.. 5 inches of snow later.. DOH!!!

And this chick.. (LUCY) says that somehow the NAM has been accurate thus far, therefore she can "trust" it..

pffft..

If accurate is about 8 degrees too warm and 6 hours too early then COOL.. Because the high for El Paso today was supposed to be 44 and snow starting after 9PM.. Snow started at 2 PM and the high WAS 44 degrees, too bad it was at MIDNIGHT and the MOS guidance was for 0z (5PM El Paso Time..)

no doubt the GROUND temps are too warm to sustain much, but considering the GFS has 3-5 inches of snow for the ABI area should we create a "special" discussion at 9:24 to call it over because the 0z NAM came out.. I wonder if she tried to hit the backspace key when she saw the GFS.. What a crock.. Anyone want to change zones?? Our Mets are about as useful as a broken clock.. At least a broken clock is right twice a day...

[joshskeety]

I wonder where the NWS sends all their dumb meteorologists?? San Angelo is my guess... Perfect place for them.. 300 days a year they can write.. SUNNY AND WARM.. BRILLIANT!!

[iorange55]

I wonder where the NWS sends all their dumb meteorologists?? San Angelo is my guess... Perfect place for them.. 300 days a year they can write.. SUNNY AND WARM.. BRILLIANT!!

I wouldn't go this far out on a limb if I was you.....cause if it turns out they're right then...well you know. Might look a little eh.

[severe]

Just up in that area this past weekend, actually Sanger. That area has a chance to see some snow, of course it's just a tad north of the Big D.

quiet weather is expected for the next 18 hours and then rain
returns to North Texas with a chance for some light snow Tuesday
night/Wednesday morning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That high is looking like it's building even stronger according to the GFS 00 that's going to be a major high if it pans out. So maybe we'll have another chance sometime in the next few weeks.



Looks like if this thing does happen later in the week San Antonio would even see snow which would make one of my friends VERY happy who has never seen snow before down there.

Yeah, I noticed. The 00z GFS is showing a very impressive high forming in Canada over the next few days, reaching 1060mb+ by Saturday into Sunday. If this actually plays out, then it will likely mean a very large arctic outbreak will follow, probably next week. This is going to be interesting to watch play out, especially since the models probably won't get a good handle on the potential arctic outbreak until the last minute.

[joshskeety]

I wonder where the NWS sends all their dumb meteorologists?? San Angelo is my guess... Perfect place for them.. 300 days a year they can write.. SUNNY AND WARM.. BRILLIANT!!

I wouldn't go this far out on a limb if I was you.....cause if it turns out they're right then...well you know. Might look a little eh.

No, sure they can be right.. Actually there is a 50% chance they are right.. But to just call the entire storm based on 1 model when another, more reliable model, says that there is a possibility of something?? I don't get it.. I lived in Virginia for 6 years and in all the winter storms, never did their zone ever rule anything out until there was some sort of consistancy.. The fact is there is absolutely no consistantly on upper air temps and sfc temps.. So why go out of your way to make a special zone forecast at 9:24 basically calling the storm? Seriously?? Why???

[joshskeety]

okay.. For instance.. NAM MOS has the low tonight at 35 degrees..

Its already 39.4 degrees, still hours away from any cloud cover and welbulb has dropped to 34 degrees.. Oh, i can see it now..

SJT/San Angelo, Texas
12:05 .DISCUSSION...

LOWER SFC TEMPS DOWN AS RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LACK
OF NIGHT TIME CLOUDCOVER IS DROPPING TEMPS MORE THAN
EXPECTED. OF COURSE, THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE
FACT WE USE THE NAM MOS WHICH IS WORTHLESS, BUT IT
ALLOWS US TO CONSTANTLY MAKE CONSERVATIVE PREDICTIONS.


(Lucy)

[joshskeety]

Welp, my own therm has it at 41 degrees.. And we have some very ligh cloud cover.. So ya.. Maybe they are right.. Just not sure I would call it with the GFS still looking bullish for the SJT area...

[HockeyTx82]

Umm ok someone explain this to me. How is the the low tonight is 41 on the forecast but it is already 35 outside?!?!

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 2=-97.1309

What am I missing? Is the temp wrong at the airport?

This update snippet just came out as well....

.UPDATE...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
IN GOOD SHAPE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

Well just now at 12:06AM they changed the low to be 38. Still showing a temp of 35 outside, interesting......

[iorange55]

I like the GFS 06 very much


If it were correct dallas would see a little snow with the storm that's going towards south and southeast texas, and there would be a few other chances of a winter storm after 7-8 days out.



Also part of the discussion from the NWS in Dallas

AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE/BROAD/DEEP TROUGH OVER THE US BY
THURSDAY WILL SEND A PIECE OF ARCTIC AIR SOUTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. THIS COLD AIRMASS IS NOT ANYTHING TOO UNUSUAL FOR THE TIME
OF THE YEAR...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. WHILE THE MOS HAS COOLED SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE LAST
DAY...BELIEVE IT IS STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH. WILL FORECAST A FREEZE
OVER MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS WED/THU/FRI NIGHTS...AND HIGHS GENERALLY
STUCK IN THE 40S.

UNFORTUNATELY THE FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED THAN JUST TEMPS.
ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A PV ANOMALY OVER MANITOBA DROPPING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE PLAINS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH. AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THURSDAY NIGHT...IT
WILL INDUCE A RESPONSE IN THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES OVER OUR
REGION...WITH UPGLIDE ORGANIZING. THERMAL PROFILES ARE CERTAINLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BY THIS TIME...BUT MOISTURE BECOMES MORE
QUESTIONABLE. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND THUS HAS
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...BUT THE CANADIAN IS DRY. NAM/ECMWF/SREF
OFFER A REASONABLE COMPROMISE...AND THUS HAVE RELUCTANTLY ADDED
SNOW TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW SINCE THE MODELS DID NOT SHOW THIS YESTERDAY...SO WILL KEEP
POPS LOW AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20. THIS
REGION APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW BECAUSE OF BETTER MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. AGAIN...I WANT TO STRESS THAT
THIS FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...AND SNOWFALL IS NOT A
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT BUT ONLY A POSSIBILITY.

[iorange55]

Also San Antonio NWS has SNOW in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. When was the last time San Antonio had actual snow? It obviously might change, but it's been awhile since snow was in the forecast for San Antonio I believe.

[wxman22]

Houston also has snow in the forecast!

[WantSnow]

For the first time on my little phone widget they are forecasting snow! On friday. It's a small % chance, but hey. All this talk off snow about this week, and friday is the most likely day? Interesting. hopefully we get something!

[iorange55]

For the first time on my little phone widget they are forecasting snow! On friday. It's a small % chance, but hey. All this talk off snow about this week, and friday is the most likely day? Interesting. hopefully we get something!

I'm not sure which area you're talking about, but if it's Dallas, then it is interesting for Dallas at least it looks like Friday will actually be a better chance for snow and not tonight into tomorrow. The GFS seems to be pushing more and more precip slowly to the north. Let's hope it continues.



CBS 11 news here in Dallas put snow in the forecast for Friday.

[KatDaddy]

Joe B says Houston we have a problem and its not the flash back to 10 days before Rita. We could beat the record for the earliest snow in Houston Friday.

From the Hou-Gal AFD:

MOISTURE
SURGING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE (FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET) COMBINED
WITH THE VERY COLD SFC TEMPERATURES (A NEARLY 1036MB SFC HIGH) TO
PRESENT THE THREAT OF SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW OR MIX OF BOTH FOR FRI.
SO WHILE WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF TIME (AND MODEL RUNS) BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN...A BEAR WATCH IS DEFINITELY IN ORDER. 41