NOAA releases their outlook for august:Active rest of season

[cycloneye]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... icane.html

They are more bullish than Dr Gray as they say that the factors despite the lack of la nina will be favorable for developments the rest of the season with between 12-15 systems forming in total but with the 4 that already haved formed the rest of the season according to noaa will see between 8-11 named systems,5-7 hurricanes and 3-4 major canes.

What are the comments of all about what NOAA says and the difference with Dr Gray's forecast?.

[Colin]

I think NOAA is a bit overdone here ... just my opinion though.

[cycloneye]

Well colin let's see what happens.

Ticka after this noaa outlook and the MJO comming into the atlantic your 2 week lull will end,short it or you will prolong it?

[Lindaloo]

i commend them for not changing their numbers.

[Stormsfury]

MY numbers still stand, and if anything NOAA closed the number of TC's from 11-15, to 12-15. Otherwise, NOAA didn't change a thing, and I commend them as well for not doing so.

SF

[cycloneye]

I see Dr Gray quiting the forecast thing soon as funding and the war his researh team has with noaa will do it.

[rainstorm]

gray is much better than noaa. dr gray and noaa are saying different things, but their numbers are almost identical. interesting noaa posted after dr gray.
noaa: 12-15 ns gray:14
noaa: 7-9 canes gray: 8
noaa: 3-4 majors gray: 3

give gray credt for specifics.

[cycloneye]

I go with noaa because they are the experts in the field of tropical weather and Dr Gray has changed forecasts several times like last season and he failed while noaa sticks with the same forecasts and the pattern shaping up resembles one like noaa is saying.

[chadtm80]

I go with the NOAA as well!

[Guest]

I might extend it another week Ceye - or if SAL keeps throwing us waves of dust on the atlantic - possibly until after Labor day.

Who knows? I don't - LOL.

[Stormsfury]

I might extend it another week Ceye - or if SAL keeps throwing us waves of dust on the atlantic - possibly until after Labor day.

Who knows? I don't - LOL.

The SAL has been on the decrease for the last 10 days, however, the moisture hadn't been there. What is now Invest 94, should lay the groundworks for the next wave poised to come off in the next 48 hours IMO.

SF

[Guest]

Kewl Storm! You know what - forget NOAA and GRAY i'm going with TICKA's FORECASTING !!!!!

[Guest]

Storms are you sure there is a 94 Invest out? I don't see it on the NRL page? Or I am I out there is left field?

[Stormsfury]

Storms are you sure there is a 94 Invest out? I don't see it on the NRL page? Or I am I out there is left field?

I saw this on Scott's model map at WREL earlier today.

SF

[ameriwx2003]

Interesting also is that some of the Noaa team used to be on Dr Grays forecast team:):)

[cycloneye]

I think that 94 invest is for the EPAC that has 94E invest.The atlantic when a new invest comes it will be 91L.

[Stormsfury]

I think that 94 invest is for the EPAC that has 94E invest.The atlantic when a new invest comes it will be 91L.

Ah ok, would make sense ... I probably saw the wrong map then. I thought it was a little weird skipping 91, 92, and 93...

[Steve H.]

But the map Scott put up showed the UKMET and AVN plots of the wave that is west of Africa right now Think he just did a premature map with the assumption that something would develop...least I think. Yeah I saw that 94E in the EPAC too. Cheers!!

[Lindaloo]

Government Predicts More Hurricanes This Year Than First Expected

Government forecasters said Thursday that the current hurricane season is likely to be busier than their original predictions, with more of a danger to the United States and Caribbean.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now expects seven to nine hurricanes during the season that began June 1 and ends Nov. 30, including three to four major storms packing winds of at least 111 mph.

So far, there have been two hurricanes and two tropical storms as the season approaches its September peak.

"It is likely that many of these hurricanes will develop over the tropical Atlantic and move generally westward as they strengthen,'' the administration said in a statement. "Depending on future steering currents that cannot be predicted at extended ranges these hurricanes could pose a threat to the United States and/or the Caribbean Islands.''

The administration updated its forecast from May, which expected six to nine hurricanes, of which two to four would become major. The historical average is 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes.

The updated forecast predicts 12-15 tropical storms. Previous expectations by the government forecasters were for 11-15 tropical storms.

The predictions are similar to predictions released a day earlier by well-known Colorado State University forecaster William Gray, who sticks to an earlier prediction of 14 named storms, with eight reaching hurricane strength, three of them with winds of 111 mph or more.

On Wednesday, Gray predicted that the remainder of the summer will be calmer than expected, but that tropical activity will likely be higher than normal in October.