WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[HURAKAN]

Beautiful and dangerous storm

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 NOV 2009 Time : 190100 UTC
Lat : 10:06:15 N Lon : 144:13:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.3 / 986.5mb/ 72.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.3 6.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -14.7C Cloud Region Temp : -77.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[cycloneye]

JTWC 18:00Z Warning - 75kts



WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 9.9N 144.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 9.9N 144.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 11.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.3N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.6N 140.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 15.9N 139.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 17.5N 138.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 18.6N 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 20.2N 136.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 143.9E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM SOUTH OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION
WITH A 20NM EYE EVIDENT. A 241553Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS THE SMALL EYE
WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CORE CONVECTION AND A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OVER
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION AND RECENT MOTION BASED ON THE EYE FIX. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND
KNES; RJTD REMAINS LOWER AT 65 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO TRACK
PHILOSOPHY WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72, BUT DIVERGES IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. THE
UKMO, GFS AND NOGAPS INDICATE A WESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD TURN DUE
TO RAPID WEAKENING DUE TO A NORTHEASTERLY COOL SURGE. THE TC-LAPS,
JGSM, WBAR AND ECMWF TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW THE
SYSTEM BY TAU 96. BASED ON THE EXPECTED PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS
AND STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE 25N WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
TY 26W WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND RE-CURVE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY WITH THE REMNANTS
EITHER TRACKING NORTHWARD OR, IF IT WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY, TRACKING
SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z,
250900Z, 251500Z AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W
(TWENTYSEVEN) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

24/2032 UTC 10.2N 144.1E T5.0/5.0 NIDA -- West Pacific

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[Crostorm]

[cycloneye]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

TYPHOON NIDA POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
755 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

AT 734 AM CHST...2134Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY
DOPPLER RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 144.1
DEGREES EAST. MOVEMENT WAS INITIALLY ESTIMATED AT 350 DEGREES...
NORTH...AT 11 MPH. FUTURE RADAR FIXES WILL BE BASED ON THE CONTINUED
CONFIDENCE OF DETERMINING A CENTER POSITION.

THE CENTER IS APPROXIMATELY 220 MILES SOUTH OF THE GUAM RADAR AT AN
ELEVATION OF 35300 FEET.

$$

MCELROY

[Crostorm]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 NOV 2009 Time : 213200 UTC
Lat : 10:25:10 N Lon : 144:00:01 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 955.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.1 6.0 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +4.2mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -80.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Crostorm]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 242119
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON NIDA (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262009
800 AM CHST WED NOV 25 2009

...TYPHOON NIDA STILL MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM FARAULEP...

THE TYPHOON WARNING FOR FARAULEP HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS AND ULITHI.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 39 TO 73 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

AT 700 AM CHST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 125 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF FARAULEP
200 MILES NORTH OF WOLEAI
225 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
235 MILES EAST OF FAIS
295 MILES EAST OF ULITHI AND
400 MILES EAST OF YAP.

TYPHOON NIDA IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 MPH. NIDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
SLOWLY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

REPEATING THE 700 AM POSITION...LATITUDE 10.3 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

SIMPSON

[JTE50]

Eye clearly on radar now:

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=GUA&loop=yes

[cycloneye]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/guam/cyclone.php

TYPHOON NIDA (26W) POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
855 AM CHST WED OCT 25 2009

AT 850 AM CHST...25/2250Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 10.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.9 DEGREES
EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT
AN ELEVATION OF 33000 FEET.

$$

MUNDELL

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[cycloneye]

TYPHOON NIDA (26W) POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
950 AM CHST WED OCT 25 2009

AT 945 AM CHST...24/2345Z...THE WELL-DEFINED EYE OF TYPHOON NIDA
WITH ABOUT 90 PERCENT EYE WALL COVERAGE WAS LOCATED BY RADAR NEAR
LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.8 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 205 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE GUAM WSR-88D RADAR AT
AN ELEVATION OF 30600 FEET.

$$

MUNDELL

[cycloneye]

JMA Upgrades to Typhoon

Finnally they did the upgrade.



TY 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 25 November 2009
<Analyses at 25/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N10°40'(10.7°)
E143°50'(143.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 26/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°55'(13.9°)
E141°10'(141.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)

<Forecast for 27/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°30'(16.5°)
E139°35'(139.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 28/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E139°00'(139.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slowly
Central pressure 925hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

[StormingB81]

Looks like the models from the website I was on are still in disagreement where this is going. Anyone have a guess on where it may go? or what weather pattern may influence it?

[cycloneye]

JTWC 00:00 UTC Warning - 100KTS



WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 013
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 143.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 143.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.4N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 15.2N 140.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 16.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 17.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.8N 137.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.0N 137.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 143.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Latest. Impressive

[Macrocane]

Rapid intensification on a similar area where Melor and Choi-wan intensified. Very impressie and beautiful typhoon, it looks to me like a 115 kt (1 min winds) typhoon or maybe stronger.

[CrazyC83]

These are the kind of storms you wish you had Recon for.

Looking at it, I would estimate 120 kt for the current intensity - a jump of 55 kt (unofficial, based on my guesses) in 15 hours.