WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION NIDA (26W)

[oaba09]

Moving WSW per JMA....



TS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 24 November 2009
<Analyses at 24/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N8°50'(8.8°)
E145°30'(145.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more N330km(180NM)
S260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 25/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N11°00'(11.0°)
E142°30'(142.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 26/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°50'(13.8°)
E140°30'(140.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 27/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

[StormingB81]

So I see JMA and JTWC have it turning towards the WNW on day 5. Is that what they are all starting to say or it still all depends on the STR?

And I haven't seen Ozonepete lately. wonder where he has been.

[JTE50]

[dexterlabio]

I think the euro models are more reliable, at least FOR ME... yesterday, i was very confident that this system wouldn't make it to enter the country, but things are just getting more and more complicated. I am not sure about the effect of the ridge positioned north of Nida, it might push Nida more to the west or wsw, but it might also drive Nida northwest to nnw towards japan. It is way too early to predict, but by watching over this storm consistently will give us more idea on what direction it will take for the coming days.

[cycloneye]

JTWC 0900Z Warning=Upgrades to Typhoon



WTPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 26W (NIDA) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 26W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 8.7N 145.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 8.7N 145.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 9.4N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 10.8N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 12.3N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.9N 140.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 16.3N 138.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 17.7N 137.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 19.2N 136.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 8.9N 145.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH OF GUAM,
HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NIDA REMAINS THE STRONGEST REGION OF CONVECTION BUT BANDING HAS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN ALL QUADRANTS. A RECENT 240334Z AMSU-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE SUPPORTS THE RECENT INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO TYPHOON
STRENGTH AS THE EYE FEATURE NOTED IN THE LATEST PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE, HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND A POSSIBLE
RECURVATURE SCENARIO BEYOND THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED POSITIONS. THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W (TWENTYSEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Crostorm]

Latest

[oaba09]

Euro model showing a recurve

[cycloneye]

EURO develops another system behind Nida.

[oaba09]

:uarrow: EURO develops another system behind Nida.

Yup...WPAC is getting busy...



The STR seems to still be guiding Nida to a slow WNW movement......

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 415
WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0922 NIDA (0922)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 08.8N 145.5E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 140NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 11.0N 142.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 260600UTC 13.8N 140.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 270600UTC 16.1N 139.1E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 280600UTC 17.1N 138.3E 280NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 290600UTC 17.9N 136.4E 375NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =
NNNN

[Infdidoll]

Husband just came home and asked me what my problem is. When I asked why, he said, "Because there's a big storm out there that could be coming this way and you're not talking about it!"

I guess I got a little too confident too early that the season was over. He said they will be making sure to store all their aircraft so they wouldn't have to be coming in on Sunday to do it during the holiday weekend. Sounds like another fun week ahead.

[dexterlabio]

the one predicted to form behind nida can be a potential threat. oh well. the focus must be on nida for now. i believe that it will track more NW for the next hours, and after that, I don't know where it could go.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[JTE50]

Husband just came home and asked me what my problem is. When I asked why, he said, "Because there's a big storm out there that could be coming this way and you're not talking about it!"

I guess I got a little too confident too early that the season was over. He said they will be making sure to store all their aircraft so they wouldn't have to be coming in on Sunday to do it during the holiday weekend. Sounds like another fun week ahead.

Two supertyphoons hit Guam in Dec. Being an El Nino season, I'll bet we still have at least another month of action.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0922 NIDA (0922) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 09.2N 145.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM NORTH 160NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 11.6N 142.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 261200UTC 14.7N 140.7E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 271200UTC 17.1N 139.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =

[JTE50]

Right now JTWC has the closest point of approach to the Andersen AFB Guam Radar at 207nm. Extended Base radar goes out to 248nm so there is a chance Typhoon Nida will come within range on 25/12Z. The actual radar is not on the base but a few miles south. A huge condo interferes with scans just a tad left of due south but looking west is fine.

Almost looks like I can see the eyewall due south of Guam at the extreme range here: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=GUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[cebuboy]

Early Christmas wish: This typhoon will not hit Philippines.

[Crostorm]

Eye coming out

[Crostorm]

24/1432 UTC 9.7N 144.4E T4.5/4.5 NIDA -- West Pacific

77 KTS

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:50 UTC Warning

JMA is now in the recurving bandwagon.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/

STS 0922 (Nida)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 24 November 2009
<Analyses at 24/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°40'(9.7°)
E144°20'(144.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 25/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N13°00'(13.0°)
E142°00'(142.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 26/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°05'(16.1°)
E140°00'(140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 27/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E139°05'(139.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)