ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

SFMR winds look suspect. I do not believe those cane winds are valid

Agree.

[Aric Dunn]

SFMR winds look suspect. I do not believe those cane winds are valid

well yesterday they were well enough ..

[Aric Dunn]

if those sfmr readings are good then it will be upgraded here shortly..

[jconsor]

I mistyped - meant the ship was near the NE eyewall. Recon reported the center at 27.4N 88.4W around 18z. So the ESE wind makes perfect sense considering the position of the ship relative to the center of Ida.

A ship at 28.0N 88.1W (near the NW eyewall) reported ESE winds of 58 mph and a pressure of 29.41" (996 mb) at 12 PM CST (18z).

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MV7HC8

That wind would be blowing away from the center. Certainly suspect. I see the Shell Mars platform near 28.2N/89.2N reporting 55kt winds. But that instrument is several hundred feet above the surface (maybe over 300 feet up).

[Ivanhater]

Still blowing up over the center, certainly not a weakening storm making landfall, she is actually strengthening. Should start to feel teh trough soon and make her turn NNE.

[tailgater]

A ship at 28.0N 88.1W (near the NW eyewall) reported ESE winds of 58 mph and a pressure of 29.41" (996 mb) at 12 PM CST (18z).

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... ?ID=MV7HC8

That wind would be blowing away from the center. Certainly suspect. I see the Shell Mars platform near 28.2N/89.2N reporting 55kt winds. But that instrument is several hundred feet above the surface (maybe over 300 feet up).

Probably should be (near the NE eyewall)

[Terry]

How many previous storms have strengthened a little before landfall in that area? Seems like more than not.

[HURAKAN]

[tolakram]

Really glad it's November and not September.

Hi Speed visible, another blowup.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=18

and Mobile radar:

[cycloneye]

Some of those SFMR were unflagged.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/

[ozonepete]

Notice the eye temperature is 22C and the temp/dewpoint spreads show very moist air around the storm. Ida is still very much a tropical entity.

Yeah, very much, but no longer completely. It's got the comma shape and dry slot. A number of points on the panhandle coast have dewpoints in the low-mid 60s.

[cycloneye]

AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 21 20091109
194030 2737N 08854W 8430 01495 0006 +186 +122 304029 031 045 000 00
194100 2736N 08856W 8423 01504 0009 +184 +127 298027 029 044 001 00
194130 2735N 08857W 8430 01501 0012 +181 +126 305030 034 047 000 00
194200 2735N 08857W 8430 01501 0015 +180 +128 303026 030 047 000 00
194230 2733N 08900W 8430 01503 0020 +176 +128 311024 025 046 000 00
194300 2732N 08901W 8432 01504 0026 +172 +128 319021 023 044 000 00
194330 2730N 08902W 8422 01517 0030 +167 +129 327022 023 044 002 00
194400 2729N 08904W 8436 01505 0032 +166 +130 328024 025 045 000 00
194430 2729N 08904W 8436 01505 0033 +168 +130 326025 028 047 001 00
194500 2727N 08906W 8430 01509 0029 +177 +127 319027 028 049 000 00
194530 2727N 08906W 8430 01509 0029 +177 +127 319027 028 049 000 00
194600 2727N 08906W 8430 01509 0029 +177 +127 319027 028 049 000 00
194630 2727N 08906W 8430 01509 0029 +177 +127 319027 028 049 000 00
194700 2727N 08906W 8430 01509 0029 +178 +126 318027 028 049 000 00
194730 2721N 08913W 8431 01518 0035 +184 +114 310029 030 044 000 00
194800 2720N 08914W 8430 01523 0038 +182 +115 311029 029 041 000 00
194830 2719N 08915W 8428 01527 0042 +177 +118 309027 027 041 000 00
194900 2718N 08916W 8426 01527 0046 +172 +122 310028 029 038 000 00
194930 2717N 08918W 8432 01522 0049 +170 +121 318030 032 036 002 00
195000 2715N 08919W 8429 01527 0052 +168 +122 322031 032 034 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND

[Aric Dunn]

I smell a upgrade soon..

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 092000
AF303 0711A IDA HDOB 22 20091109
195030 2714N 08920W 8432 01528 0054 +169 +120 325033 033 032 001 00
195100 2713N 08922W 8425 01535 0056 +167 +120 325030 033 032 000 00
195130 2712N 08923W 8420 01540 0057 +167 +118 326030 032 031 000 00
195200 2711N 08924W 8431 01529 0058 +167 +118 329030 031 028 002 00
195230 2709N 08926W 8430 01531 0058 +170 +113 316026 027 027 001 00
195300 2708N 08927W 8422 01541 0062 +164 +117 332028 030 027 002 00
195330 2707N 08928W 8433 01530 0063 +162 +119 332030 032 028 000 00
195400 2706N 08930W 8431 01534 0069 +155 +122 338030 032 025 001 00
195430 2704N 08931W 8434 01533 0074 +150 +123 339030 032 024 001 00
195500 2703N 08932W 8422 01545 0076 +149 +123 338028 031 026 001 00
195530 2702N 08934W 8437 01530 0074 +153 +122 324021 024 028 001 00
195600 2701N 08935W 8427 01542 0077 +149 +123 340018 021 023 003 00
195630 2700N 08936W 8432 01538 0076 +152 +123 334017 018 024 000 00
195700 2658N 08938W 8429 01543 0076 +153 +120 333017 018 021 000 00
195730 2657N 08939W 8428 01543 0075 +155 +119 326016 017 019 000 00
195800 2656N 08940W 8431 01539 0077 +152 +121 329015 016 015 001 00
195830 2655N 08942W 8433 01540 0081 +150 +123 331015 017 006 001 00
195900 2654N 08943W 8428 01545 0081 +149 +124 335015 016 006 001 00
195930 2652N 08944W 8429 01546 0084 +148 +124 339014 014 005 001 00
200000 2651N 08945W 8430 01545 0084 +148 +124 337013 013 008 000 00

[cebuboy]

hahahaha nice to know those Western pacific typhoons seems silent as i wake up and look for updates.. I think this Storm Ida is the first serious threat to US Gulf coast this year.

[Ivanhater]

Eye seems to be tightening on the Mobile radar.

[Aric Dunn]

URNT12 KNHC 091956
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 09/19:30:30Z
B. 28 deg 00 min N
088 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1348 m
D. 58 kt
E. 054 deg 47 nm
F. 134 deg 75 kt
G. 059 deg 41 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C / 1528 m
J. 22 C / 1527 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0711A IDA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 75 KT NE QUAD 19:16:40Z
MAX FL TEMP 23 C 070 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND
;

[cycloneye]

Complete VDM decoded.


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 9th day of the month at 19:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 09
A. Time of Center Fix: 9th day of the month at 19:30:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 28°00'N 88°29'W (28.N 88.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 166 miles (268 km) to the SE (145°) from New Orleans, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 47 nautical miles (54 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 134° at 75kts (From the SE at ~ 86.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the ENE (59°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,528m (5,013ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 75kts (~ 86.3mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:16:40Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 23°C (73°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the ENE (70°) from the flight level center
Maximum Surface (likely estimated by SFMR) Wind Outbound: 73kts (~ 84.0mph) in the southwest quadrant at 19:35:50Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX SFC WIND 73 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 19:35:50Z JUST OUTSIDE HEAVY CONVECTIVE BAND

[MGC]

looks like Ida is a hurricane again....MGC