ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

NOGAPS has a loop in the GOM.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[Evil Jeremy]

I am starting to think that Ida won't survive the trip. Her convection is weakening very fast:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

I am starting to think that Ida won't survive the trip. Her convection is weakening very fast:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

The structure is what we have to look at when it emerges to see how it looks.

[cycloneye]

A consensus is building towards a more east track by the dynamic models as they shift more east.

[HURAKAN]

Lets hope it dissipates. It would be the best for everyone. This time of the year + WCAR = Not good

[gatorcane]

Yeah that are shifting east at the end of the runs. I expect some more shifts to the east also. Reason I say that is because the flow in the GOM is going to be west to east by day 5 up through 200MB. I also have climatology on my side (I understand climo doesn't mean much of course)

[Weatherboy1]

I don't know ... looks to me like she is just scooting north along the coast. As someone else's post made clear, the land there is NOT mountainous. While Ida won't strengthen over land, she won't weaken much if she heads due north from here and can continually haul in moisture from the W and NW Caribbean

[Ivanhater]

12z Euro puts a VERY weak system in the North gulf, spreading a little wind in the panhandle. However, there may not be much left of Ida at that point

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

In my opinion Ida will not completely dissipate over Central America and will regenerate into a hurricane in the NW CAR

[KWT]

Convection is becoming more shallow thats for sure but the structure remains solid enough for now, don't think this one is likely to die out but a TD when it emerges seems very likely.

[gatorcane]

movement is erratic but looks like a slow due N drift has taken place (wobble?) doesn't it?

Every wobble north counts as it is that much less time over land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[KWT]

Yeah, the last estimate of speed was an average of 3kts over the last 12hrs so its quite likely currently only moving 1-2kts, painfully slowly, if it gains even the slightest of easterly motion as the GFDL shows (say 2-4 degrees even) it'll make a difference as to how long its overland for.

[tolakram]

1K loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

4k

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like Ida is already starting to decouple based on the latest visible shots.

[gatorcane]

Looks like Ida is already starting to decouple based on the latest visible shots.

I don't see any decoupling. With the current North drift along the coast and it not moving more to the left of the NHC track where the mountains are, should have no problems making it to the NW Carib and having a chance to regain hurricane strength.

[PTrackerLA]

It could be a dry slot but it gives the illusion that the LLC is trying to move more inland while the convection is spread more North.

[hurricanefloyd5]

i think IDA will or could be headed towards for florida by next week sometime!!!!!!!!!!!!

[ROCK]

12z Euro puts a VERY weak system in the North gulf, spreading a little wind in the panhandle. However, there may not be much left of Ida at that point

0z had something similar. If she doesnt eject across FL and gets left behind she will be toast with the UL winds as they are forecasted to be.

[tolakram]

Goes data selector link


http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Code: Select all

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=15&lon=-85&info=vis&zoom=1&width=3000&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=10

[deltadog03]

As much as I hate to say it, I think the euro is on crack. Its trying to split out all that energy btwn IDA and the thing in the SW gom right now. I don't see that happening, but it is the euro.