ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Sanibel]

Example of November GOM/Florida shear. 2001 Michelle:

[Ivanhater]

12z GFS..good news. Stalls in the central gulf, then pushes back SW where she is sheared to shreds.

[Sanibel]

GFS turns it straight west to east in the Gulf and over us as a weakening TS.

[wxman57]

Actually, the 12Z GFS moves it to the east-central Gulf, stalls it (with 60-70kt westerly winds overhead), then drives it south to the Yucatan and southwest to the Bay of Campeche where it dissipates. Interesting that it moves it into increasing westerly winds aloft but doesn't turn it NE to the FL peninsula Tuesday.

[Ivanhater]

GFS turns it straight west to east in the Gulf and over us as a weakening TS.

huh. it stalls in the central gulf then turns back SW where she is sheared to death

[Ivanhater]

Actually, the 12Z GFS moves it to the east-central Gulf, stalls it (with 60-70kt westerly winds overhead), then drives it south to the Yucatan and southwest to the Bay of Campeche where it dissipates. Interesting that it moves it into increasing westerly winds aloft but doesn't turn it NE to the FL peninsula Tuesday.

The 12z GFS would be the best news for everyone. The gfs and euro have been persistent stalling Ida out and pushing her back south where she dies, Good news

[Sanibel]

GFS turns it straight west to east in the Gulf and over us as a weakening TS.

huh. it stalls in the central gulf then turns back SW where she is sheared to death

Is my link an old run?


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2009110506&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[AdamFirst]

I think Ida's got a strong enough structure to survive over the flat terrain. The question is, how much will it rebound once it's back over the waters.

All these models crank it up but it's fairly certain they don't take in the shear gauntlet that awaits.

[Ivanhater]

yeah, the 12z is coming out now

[Sanibel]

Sort of relieves me of my panic that the models have totally missed shear many times already this year.



I can't afford any hurricane damage.

[HURAKAN]

Microwave

[cycloneye]

Hugging the coast.

[Sanibel]

Core not as far inland as predicted. (Don't let this be GFDL verifying)

[fci]

Climatologically speaking IF Ida makes it after being on land for almost 2 days; the track would not bode well for South Florida. Let's keep in mind that the official forecast does not have the storm re-emerging until Saturday morning which leaves a long period of time disrupted by land.

That said, it seems to hard to believe that if Ida restrengthens that it would get to the Northern GOM. Pretty unheard of!
More likely, of course; is a track across South Florida, disappating, or into Cuba.

Absolutley, something to be concerned about.

One thing I know is a certain forecast..... a lot of activity on S2K, probably S2K's busiest period fo the 2009 season; and staying up late......

[Sanibel]

NHC has gone a little east since last night:

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes I agree. GFDL definitely strengthens it further, due to the lessened interaction with land. That's a pretty quick jump to the east in that model. NHC giving a more westward track because it looks like the other models are more agreeably with that.

[Sanibel]

Cloud motion on visible satellite still looks NW and into Nicaragua.

[ozonepete]

Actually, the 12Z GFS moves it to the east-central Gulf, stalls it (with 60-70kt westerly winds overhead), then drives it south to the Yucatan and southwest to the Bay of Campeche where it dissipates. Interesting that it moves it into increasing westerly winds aloft but doesn't turn it NE to the FL peninsula Tuesday.

I assume that's because it has Ida getting a good haircut from the westerly shear. Once that happens there's only an LLC left, which gets shoved back SW by the low-level northeasterly flow around the big Canadian High.

[Ptarmigan]

Why do I keep thinking this is not a Upper Texas Coast problem? Again, I know nothing. LOL

Never say never.

[gatorcane]

Climatologically speaking IF Ida makes it after being on land for almost 2 days; the track would not bode well for South Florida. Let's keep in mind that the official forecast does not have the storm re-emerging until Saturday morning which leaves a long period of time disrupted by land.

That said, it seems to hard to believe that if Ida restrengthens that it would get to the Northern GOM. Pretty unheard of!
More likely, of course; is a track across South Florida, disappating, or into Cuba.

Absolutley, something to be concerned about.

One thing I know is a certain forecast..... a lot of activity on S2K, probably S2K's busiest period fo the 2009 season; and staying up late......

I agree anything off to the SW is a concern for South FL, especially this time of year. How many times have we seen models take systems more north up the peninsula only for them to bend more ENE....Charley, Wilma. etc....

Charley was supposed to be a Tampa hit, ended up in Ft. Myers.

Wilma was supposed to be a Ft. Myers hit, ended up crossing more south in the Everglades south of Naples.

Irene was supposed to be in the EGOM 5 days out, ended up being a South FL system.