ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

#441 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:04 pm

GFDL/ECMWF/GFS/UKMET keep Ida just offshore and headed towards the NW Carib. Deep BAMS, HWRF, and CMC have it moving through Nicaragua/Honduras.

So the battle is on between the models. As cycloneye mentions every slight wobble/gain in lattitude could have large implications down the road in the WCAR. Of course any significant wobbles west could mean it may not even make it to the NW Carib....

I can see that it is moving WNW at 6mph per the latest advisory...let's see if it comes to a halt later on tonight just offshore.

SouthFLTropics · #442 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:05 pm

Let's all take a minute and say a prayer for the people in Central America. I remember when Mitch went in there back in 1998 and the death toll was astronomical. My thoughts and prayers are with all of the people down there.

SFT

Derek Ortt · #443 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:22 pm

newest microwave is very impressive

#444 Postby **Kingarabian** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:27 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:newest microwave is very impressive

Indeed...

#445 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:30 pm

Latest

#446 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:34 pm

Another look at the latest GFS...it will be interesting to see if Ida stalls out tonight before going inland

#447 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:34 pm

Looking good

#448 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:36 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Latest

Wow. Almost completely wrapped around now. If it stays offshore another few hours (which it should), the eye should show up on the IR satellite images pretty soon.

#449 Postby **Ivanhater** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:38 pm

#450 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:39 pm

04/2345 UTC 12.3N 82.8W T3.0/3.0 IDA -- Atlantic

LOL

#451 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:42 pm

18Z GFDL, I know it's highly and hopefully unlikely, but I'm amazed to see a Cat 5 model in November.

#452 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:42 pm

Certainly appears to have a very small wind field. I've been watching the report on that island about 75 miles NE of the center and winds are SE at 10 kts. Were 20 kts earlier. This is just outside the CDO, which is about 95 miles across. Larger than Marco, but still small.

#453 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:44 pm

Latest

#454 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:51 pm

Impressive is the word to describe it but at the same time destructive if it spends many hours over land.

#455 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:59 pm

Moving more north and intensifying more than forecast. Not good.

#456 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 8:59 pm

60 kt seems like my best guess for the intensity. It has improved for sure since Recon left, but not enough confidence to call it a hurricane yet. Could be a cane by 0600Z though.

#457 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:01 pm

I think it should be a hurricane by 10 pm. The recent microwave image and expansion of the CDO are very convincing.

Derek Ortt · #458 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:01 pm

I am going with 60KT as indicated in the evening forecast

#459 Postby **ozonepete** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:60 kt seems like my best guess for the intensity. It has improved for sure since Recon left, but not enough confidence to call it a hurricane yet. Could be a cane by 0600Z though.

That's totally reasonable - makes sense to me.

#460 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Nov 04, 2009 9:02 pm

ozonepete wrote:Moving more north and intensifying more than forecast. Not good.

Looks like a solid slow WNW movement to me?

ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

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