ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[Derek Ortt]

looks like a T 3.5+ to me... very near hurricane intensity

[KWT]

Yeah its probably in the 55-60kts range, the eyewall showed very nicely in the Vis imagery just a little bit ago with overshooting tops, quite possible this one goes in as a hurricane, every bit further north also reduces the chance of a track over the mountions.

[HURAKAN]

CDO continues to expand

[HURAKAN]

Very impressive

[ozonepete]

Very impressive

You said it! It's closing off...

[ozonepete]

looks like a T 3.5+ to me... very near hurricane intensity

Totally agree.

[HURAKAN]

Could be a hurricane by 10 pm

[cycloneye]

Moving at 315 degrees at 6 kts.

WHXX01 KWBC 050031
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0031 UTC THU NOV 5 2009

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE IDA (AL112009) 20091105 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
091105 0000 091105 1200 091106 0000 091106 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.3N 82.8W 12.8N 84.0W 13.4N 85.1W 13.9N 86.1W
BAMD 12.3N 82.8W 13.1N 83.7W 14.2N 84.7W 15.6N 85.5W
BAMM 12.3N 82.8W 13.0N 83.9W 13.8N 85.0W 14.7N 86.1W
LBAR 12.3N 82.8W 13.4N 83.6W 14.8N 84.5W 16.2N 85.3W
SHIP 55KTS 65KTS 70KTS 72KTS
DSHP 55KTS 52KTS 37KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
091107 0000 091108 0000 091109 0000 091110 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.5N 87.1W 15.7N 89.0W 16.9N 90.8W 17.8N 92.0W
BAMD 17.4N 86.3W 21.7N 87.9W 26.2N 89.8W 33.4N 89.3W
BAMM 15.7N 87.1W 17.7N 89.1W 19.5N 91.3W 21.3N 92.6W
LBAR 17.5N 85.5W 19.1N 84.8W 19.5N 84.0W 19.2N 83.4W
SHIP 70KTS 66KTS 60KTS 55KTS
DSHP 28KTS 28KTS 22KTS 18KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 81.0W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 30NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 30NM

[ozonepete]

Could be a hurricane by 10 pm

I wouldn't argue that. It's abutting the mountains and has lost some of its westward motion, i.e., it's not going inland quite so fast. It certainly doesn't need too much more time to make hurricane at the rate it's intensifying.

[cycloneye]

Latest Bam models motion is at 315 degrees.

315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

[ozonepete]

Latest Bam models motion is at 315 degrees.

315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

It really looks like it's gained a lot more latitude than forecast. The 10PM should be very interesting...

[HURAKAN]

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al112009.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200911050028
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
IDA, AL, L, , , , , 11, 2009, TS, O, 2009110312, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL112009
AL, 11, 2009110300, , BEST, 0, 99N, 808W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2009110306, , BEST, 0, 100N, 810W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 11, 2009110312, , BEST, 0, 101N, 811W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 11, 2009110318, , BEST, 0, 103N, 811W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 11, 2009110400, , BEST, 0, 106N, 810W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 11, 2009110406, , BEST, 0, 110N, 813W, 30, 1007, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 11, 2009110412, , BEST, 0, 115N, 819W, 35, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 130, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 11, 2009110418, , BEST, 0, 118N, 823W, 45, 998, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 30, 20, 30, 1010, 120, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IDA, M, 12, NEQ, 45, 30, 30, 45
AL, 11, 2009110500, , BEST, 0, 123N, 828W, 55, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 45, 30, 20, 30, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IDA, M,
AL, 11, 2009110500, , BEST, 0, 123N, 828W, 55, 995, TS, 50, NEQ, 15, 10, 0, 10, 1010, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IDA, M,


In the best track it now appears TD 11 formed at 6z.

[Derek Ortt]

the microwave is not that impressive to me. entire western half of the eyewall is eroded. Probably stilla TS based upon that

[gatorcane]

Latest Bam models motion is at 315 degrees.

315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

It really looks like it's gained a lot more latitude than forecast. The 10PM should be very interesting...

My forecast from a couple of days ago was for a NNW motion that skirted the coast of Honduras/Nicaragua or was just inland as it heads for the NW Carib. That appears to be verifying so far. Now in the NW Carib, could see some more erratic movement with a temporary jog W or WNW. Climatology would indicate more ENE or NE, but there is a ridge that is supposed to build into the EGOM/FL in about 2-3 days from now, then that ridge breaks down by day 5.

It's more like September out there now it appears. Mother Nature appears to be reversing the November-like conditions we saw in September.

[cycloneye]

Derek,you were right about BT.

[Derek Ortt]

the SSM/I swath needed to be 100km to the east! It is from just 40 minutes ago

[CrazyC83]

I'd say there should be a Hurricane Warning; maybe there will be one out at 10 pm.

[cycloneye]

Now it looks like it might just ride up along the coast or just inland on a more NNW track. I've seen tropical cyclones do this before. The physics/aerodynamics is pretty logical. The front left quadrant is abutting those tall mountains from south to north and so the flow to the west is getting blocked from low to mid-levels. The Radius of Maximum Winds (the core) then begins to follow the path of least resistance, in this case more northward.

Its the crucial period now to see how it tracks because every mile it moves more north than west is less time that will spend on land and by doing that it will have major implications in the Western Caribbean intensitywise.

[ozonepete]

the microwave is not that impressive to me. entire western half of the eyewall is eroded. Probably stilla TS based upon that

The western half is not eroded. Eroded means it was there and dissipated. As a matter of fact, it's not a half but maybe a third that is open on the western side. Anyway, it's open but looks like it will fill in based on the encircling coverage on the other sides and also the IR sat and night view of the visible sat.

[SouthFLTropics]

One thing looks to be for sure right now...It may have been a dud of a season for us storm watchers up until now but 2009 looks like it will go out with a bang!!!