ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[alan1961]

NRL saying 11L IDA

[cycloneye]

The title of the threads here will change as soon the advisory is out.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042034
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20091104
202630 1153N 08159W 9245 00757 0084 +200 +200 158036 037 029 007 00
202700 1155N 08200W 9243 00758 0083 +200 +200 157038 039 032 006 00
202730 1156N 08200W 9246 00756 0083 +200 +200 154038 038 031 007 00
202800 1158N 08201W 9248 00755 0084 +191 +191 153040 044 030 009 01
202830 1200N 08201W 9254 00749 9990 +182 +999 143043 044 034 016 05
202900 1202N 08202W 9246 00756 0085 +192 +192 144040 042 033 009 01
202930 1202N 08202W 9246 00756 0086 +195 +195 146042 043 035 009 00
203000 1206N 08203W 9244 00760 9990 +185 +999 142044 044 034 009 01
203030 1207N 08203W 9248 00756 0087 +190 +190 138044 045 036 009 01
203100 1209N 08204W 9248 00756 0087 +189 +189 133045 045 037 011 00
203130 1211N 08204W 9241 00764 0088 +189 +189 133043 043 035 011 01
203200 1213N 08205W 9249 00755 0087 +195 +195 132041 042 031 008 00
203230 1215N 08205W 9249 00755 0086 +198 +198 130040 040 029 005 00
203300 1217N 08206W 9244 00758 0087 +197 +197 131039 040 030 005 00
203330 1218N 08206W 9250 00755 0088 +193 +193 126040 041 032 005 00
203400 1220N 08207W 9247 00757 0086 +198 +198 123042 043 028 005 00
203430 1222N 08207W 9244 00761 0087 +199 +199 123044 045 029 004 00
203500 1224N 08208W 9243 00763 0087 +200 +200 123042 043 027 003 03
203530 1224N 08210W 9246 00758 0088 +200 +200 121039 041 027 004 03
203600 1223N 08211W 9250 00753 0085 +198 +198 119038 039 031 006 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042044
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20091104
203630 1222N 08212W 9241 00758 0085 +191 +191 115039 040 033 007 00
203700 1220N 08213W 9257 00741 0082 +191 +191 118039 039 032 009 00
203730 1219N 08214W 9244 00755 0083 +184 +184 116038 039 034 010 01
203800 1218N 08215W 9248 00747 9990 +179 +999 123041 041 040 015 01
203830 1217N 08217W 9244 00747 9990 +179 +999 123044 047 040 021 01
203900 1216N 08218W 9249 00740 9990 +176 +999 120044 046 047 023 01
203930 1215N 08219W 9248 00738 9990 +180 +999 126042 044 047 019 01
204000 1213N 08220W 9246 00741 9990 +189 +999 132041 042 040 012 01
204030 1212N 08221W 9247 00738 0064 +190 +190 131040 041 034 009 00
204100 1211N 08222W 9246 00735 0060 +193 +193 137043 045 037 008 00
204130 1210N 08223W 9244 00733 0056 +195 +195 138044 046 033 005 00
204200 1209N 08224W 9247 00727 0051 +197 +197 141046 046 037 003 00
204230 1208N 08226W 9247 00722 0045 +193 +193 143046 048 039 006 00
204300 1207N 08227W 9248 00708 0033 +187 +187 142047 047 043 013 01
204330 1206N 08228W 9245 00708 0030 +191 +191 144049 051 039 007 00
204400 1205N 08229W 9241 00704 9990 +179 +999 137052 053 042 014 01
204430 1204N 08230W 9247 00689 9990 +186 +999 145048 053 048 010 01
204500 1203N 08231W 9252 00678 9990 +205 +999 158041 047 045 006 05
204530 1202N 08232W 9249 00678 9991 +218 +218 156029 030 034 003 00
204600 1201N 08234W 9242 00677 9983 +221 +221 158026 027 025 002 03
$$
;

53 kt FL, 48 kt SFMR, 998mb and falling...

[CrazyC83]

Latest SFMR supports at least 45 kt (could be a case for 50 kt, but the FL winds are too low so far).

[Sanibel]

998 TS pressure.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't be surprised if the advisory is delayed a bit to get more data in.

[HURAKAN]

[Evil Jeremy]

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD NICARAGUA....

[wxman57]

50 kts on advisory.

[AdamFirst]

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042054
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20091104
204630 1201N 08235W 9250 00663 9976 +222 +222 161023 024 025 001 03
204700 1200N 08237W 9246 00663 9970 +220 +220 168016 019 021 001 00
204730 1200N 08238W 9246 00656 9964 +221 +221 204005 011 001 000 03
204800 1159N 08240W 9245 00659 9965 +223 +223 320010 013 006 000 00
204830 1159N 08241W 9246 00663 9970 +226 +223 325015 016 011 000 00
204900 1158N 08243W 9244 00671 9976 +228 +220 328018 018 016 001 03
204930 1157N 08244W 9243 00678 9981 +228 +217 321021 022 004 002 03
205000 1156N 08245W 9245 00679 9987 +223 +217 315024 025 016 000 00
205030 1155N 08246W 9244 00684 9992 +221 +217 315031 034 025 001 00
205100 1154N 08247W 9248 00687 9999 +219 +216 310037 039 036 001 00
205130 1152N 08248W 9248 00693 0011 +208 +208 314041 044 037 000 00
205200 1151N 08249W 9249 00699 0019 +205 +205 317043 043 034 002 00
205230 1150N 08250W 9248 00706 0024 +209 +203 321043 044 034 002 00
205300 1149N 08251W 9247 00708 0025 +218 +206 327043 043 033 004 00
205330 1148N 08252W 9245 00716 0033 +210 +203 328043 043 033 006 00
205400 1147N 08254W 9244 00722 0040 +205 +200 331042 043 031 007 00
205430 1145N 08255W 9248 00723 0046 +206 +197 329043 044 032 009 00
205500 1144N 08256W 9249 00725 0052 +204 +197 331040 041 032 009 00
205530 1143N 08257W 9246 00733 0056 +201 +195 330038 039 031 009 00
205600 1142N 08258W 9243 00739 0061 +197 +197 329035 036 029 008 00
$$
;

Pressure 996mb.

[cycloneye]

WTNT31 KNHC 042056
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IDA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...THE NINTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...HEADED TOWARD
NICARAGUA....

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN
COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.7 WEST OR ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT 75
MILES...120 KM...EAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

IDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IDA
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA OVERNIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.0N 82.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH


000
WTNT41 KNHC 042056
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
400 PM EST WED NOV 04 2009

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT...ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED THIS
AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE WELL-ORGANIZED
WITH STRONG BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 53 KT...SFMR WINDS OF 48 KT...AND A FALLING MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF
ABOUT 50 KT...AND THUS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED IDA.

THE INITIAL MOTION APPEARS TO HAVE TURNED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT...AND
IS NOW 300/5. IDA IS MOVING THROUGH AN AREA OF LIGHT STEERING
BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ON THE STORM SLOWLY MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN TO THE NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE
CARIBBEAN RIDGE. ONLY THE UKMET MODEL NOW KEEPS THE SYSTEM OVER
WATER WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LAND INTERACTION. THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS FAVOR STRENGTHENING...IDA DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH MORE TIME LEFT BEFORE IT MOVES OVER NICARAGUA. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM...
SHOWING SOME STRENGTHENING OF IDA...AND THEN REDUCED THEREAFTER DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND. IN A FEW DAYS...THE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME REINTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. HOWEVER... IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.

LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES FROM EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM IDA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/2100Z 12.0N 82.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 05/0600Z 12.4N 83.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 05/1800Z 13.0N 84.1W 40 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 06/0600Z 13.7N 84.6W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 06/1800Z 14.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1800Z 16.0N 85.5W 25 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 35 KT
120HR VT 09/1800Z 20.5N 86.5W 40 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

[jlauderdal]

I'm not sure if it will dissipate after making landfall in Central America, I think it can survive because it will be traversing the less mountainous terrain of Central America and if it moves rather fast the center will be over water before dissipation occurs, besides tropical cyclones over Central America usually have rainbands from the Pacific and the Caribbeaan feeding the center even after landfall.

That is a good point to observe.

one problem with the equation, its not supposed to move fast anytime soon

[HURAKAN]

[JonathanBelles]

WOW! 60mph... I never expected that.

[HURAKAN]

WOW! 60mph... I never expected that.

I'm not surprised after the microwave image this morning.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 042104
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 36 20091104
205630 1140N 08259W 9244 00739 0063 +195 +195 326033 034 026 007 00
205700 1139N 08300W 9247 00736 0062 +199 +199 331034 035 022 004 00
205730 1138N 08302W 9247 00739 0065 +200 +200 333033 033 024 007 00
205800 1137N 08303W 9244 00744 0068 +195 +195 333030 031 025 009 00
205830 1136N 08304W 9245 00744 0070 +193 +193 336029 030 022 009 00
205900 1134N 08305W 9245 00746 0071 +195 +195 334027 028 023 006 00
205930 1133N 08306W 9246 00745 0072 +196 +196 329025 026 025 007 00
210000 1132N 08307W 9245 00747 0073 +201 +201 326024 025 020 001 00
210030 1131N 08308W 9246 00749 0074 +202 +198 325023 023 017 002 00
210100 1130N 08309W 9249 00746 0075 +205 +197 328024 024 018 000 00
210130 1128N 08311W 9246 00750 0076 +200 +196 329025 025 016 000 00
210200 1127N 08312W 9246 00750 0077 +199 +199 332026 028 015 001 00
210230 1126N 08313W 9243 00753 0079 +197 +197 334026 026 016 000 03
210300 1125N 08314W 9245 00753 0080 +195 +195 336027 027 017 000 00
210330 1123N 08315W 9247 00752 0081 +195 +195 332027 028 013 000 00
210400 1122N 08316W 9247 00752 0081 +196 +196 334026 027 011 000 00
210430 1121N 08317W 9245 00756 0082 +196 +196 337025 025 017 000 03
210500 1120N 08319W 9246 00755 0083 +197 +197 336026 027 012 000 00
210530 1119N 08320W 9246 00755 0083 +198 +194 335028 028 010 000 00
210600 1118N 08321W 9247 00755 0083 +199 +193 336026 027 009 000 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 042100
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112009
A. 04/20:47:40Z
B. 12 deg 00 min N
082 deg 38 min W
C. 925 mb 653 m
D. 48 kt
E. 064 deg 9 nm
F. 137 deg 53 kt
G. 063 deg 10 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 19 C / 759 m
J. 23 C / 765 m
K. 22 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345 / 09
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0111A CYCLONE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 20:44:20Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
;

Closed eyewall. Hurricane Ida in store before landfall?

[Iune]

Pardon me but when was the last use of the name Ida?