ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA

[wxman57]

Is the advisory scheduled to come out at 10 AM or 11 AM? I know the TWO's have moved their schedule an hour up with the time change, but do the advisory packages stick with the 5/11 AM/PM schedule?

It should be out by now - by 15Z.

[HURAKAN]

707
WTNT31 KNHC 041456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.6N 82.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

707
WTNT31 KNHC 041456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.6N 82.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[ozonepete]

It's out. As a TD. 35mph NW at 8mph.

[HURAKAN]

237
WTNT41 KNHC 041457
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED. TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 11.6N 82.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[ozonepete]

Ha Ha. Nobody's faster than Hurakan.

[HURAKAN]

TRACK

[cycloneye]

First flight is this afternoon arriving at system around 4 PM EST.Below are the next flights.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EST WED 04 NOVEMBER 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z NOVEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-160

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0211A CYCLONE
C. 05/1230Z
D. 12.7N 83.2W
E. 05/1630Z TO 05/2030Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 06/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0311A CYCLONE
C. 06/0030Z
D. 13.0N 83.4W
E. 06/0430Z TO 06/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?

[drezee]

Here's the 00Z GFS 96hr steering flow (400-700mb). With any luck, it'll eventually move into the Yucatan and die this weekend. Wind shear does increase significantly across the central and northern Gulf, so a hurricane hit on the U.S. would seem unlikely. My coworker reminds me that only 4 hurricanes have hit the U.S. in November, and all 4 hit Florida.

True, and look at that conveyor belt pulling the moisture into the heart of the US. It would be remarkable given the flooding already occuring. Whether TX to GA, nobody needs this system.

[Evil Jeremy]

Hey Caribbean, glad to see your out of your coma. Its been a while. You didn't miss much though.

[IvanSurvivor]

I think I'll go find my helmet just to be safe! LOL

[cycloneye]

Below is the discussion by Dr Jeff Masters about TD Eleven.

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:13 PM GMT on November 04, 2009

Tropical Depression Eleven has formed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica, and appears poised to intensify into Tropical Storm Ida later today. TD 11 has increased its organization and heavy thunderstorm activity this morning, and visible satellite loops clearly show the rotation of TD 11's cloud pattern. The presence of a surface circulation was not evident in this morning's QuikSCAT pass, but the satellite presentation of TD 11 was convincing enough to allow NHC to declare this a tropical depression. QuikSCAT saw top winds in the 25 - 30 mph range this morning, and winds at San Andreas Island, about 80 miles north of the center of TD 11, were easterly at 28 mph at 9am EST.

TD 11 is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range as long as the storm remains south of 14N latitude (central Nicaragua). Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form, if the center remains over water long enough. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development. A limiting factor for development may be the formation of a tropical disturbance (Invest 96E) 500 miles to its west, over the Eastern Pacific south of Guatemala. If this new disturbance grows strong enough, it may compete with TD 11 for moisture.

The forecast for TD 11

The forecast for TD 11 is highly complex with high uncertainty. Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and TD 11 will move slowly over the next two days. The future steering of TD 11 will strongly depend upon the development and track of the Invest 96E disturbance 500 miles to its west. If 96E develops and tracks northwards towards Guatemala, as suggested by the GFDL model, TD 11 would likely be steered northwards later this week, remaining over water as it approaches the Cayman Islands on Monday. If, on the other hand, 96E moves due west away from 97E, as suggested by the NOGAPS model, 97E might also move due west, over Nicaragua and Costa Rica, and emerge over the Eastern Pacific early next week. Another complicating influence might be the development of an extratropical or subtropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Saturday or Sunday. The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting the formation of a low pressure system over the Bay of Campeche this weekend, along the remains of an old cold front. This low is expected to track northwards towards Louisiana, and might act to also pull TD 11 northwards. The exact amount of steering influence this extratropical low and 96E might have on TD 11 depends strongly on how large and intense TD 11 becomes. At present, TD 11 is a very small system, and so is only being affecting by steering influences in its immediate vicinity.

If TD 11 intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, the storm will probably tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into TD 11's circulation, bringing 3 - 6 inches of rain today through Friday. Heavier rains are likely along the east coast of Nicaragua, where an intense spiral band of rainfall has formed this morning. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate TD 11 this afternoon to see if it has become Tropical Storm Ida.

[jconsor]

I would treat the GFS with skepticism. The 0z GFS moved TD 11 WNW in the first 12-18 hours of the run, while current data indicate a NW or NNW motion. The 0z GFS also is moving TD 11 too quickly - it shows the depression along the central Nicaragua coast by 18z today, which clearly is not going to happen.

It appears the 0z and 6z GFS were contaminated by a spurious vortmax just off the Pacific coast of Costa Rica that causes them to pull TD 11 westward. There is no evidence of such a vortmax right now.

Also, the 6z run of the experimental Fox Tampa Bay WRF, which is run off a GFS initialization, shows a slow N motion with a turn to the NE.

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... s/wrf.html

[cycloneye]

Plane has departed from Biloxi. Who wants to continue to post the obs as I have to go.

URNT15 KNHC 041524
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 02 20091104
151630 3015N 08911W 6072 04353 0216 -015 -351 301007 007 999 999 03
151700 3014N 08913W 5941 04511 0202 -028 -343 306009 009 999 999 03
151730 3013N 08914W 5783 04722 0201 -040 -292 303004 006 999 999 03
151800 3011N 08915W 5641 04918 0204 -050 -293 332006 008 999 999 03
151830 3010N 08917W 5499 05134 0269 -064 -282 315012 014 999 999 03
151900 3008N 08918W 5365 05324 0277 -075 -316 307015 015 999 999 03
151930 3007N 08919W 5261 05474 0284 -086 -320 314016 016 999 999 03
152000 3005N 08920W 5146 05651 0290 -092 -334 311018 020 999 999 03
152030 3004N 08922W 5048 05797 0296 -092 -382 316022 023 999 999 03
152100 3002N 08923W 4946 05941 0296 -099 -407 314023 023 999 999 03
152130 3001N 08924W 4852 06092 0303 -111 -416 310019 021 999 999 03
152200 2959N 08926W 4755 06257 0315 -123 -419 310016 016 999 999 03
152230 2957N 08927W 4677 06371 0308 -134 -416 310016 016 999 999 03
152300 2955N 08927W 4602 06494 0306 -145 -417 311016 016 999 999 03
152330 2954N 08928W 4524 06602 0297 -151 -422 313014 014 999 999 03
152400 2952N 08929W 4459 06694 0294 -159 -424 315014 014 999 999 03
152430 2950N 08929W 4387 06844 0310 -169 -422 317013 014 999 999 03
152500 2948N 08930W 4330 06929 0311 -176 -427 323014 014 999 999 03
152530 2946N 08931W 4251 07072 0321 -186 -443 327013 013 999 999 03
152600 2944N 08932W 4198 07175 0329 -197 -454 332011 012 999 999 03
$$

[HURAKAN]

Ida, is that you!!!

[cycloneye]

The crew will find Ida when they arrive.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: The crew will find Ida when they arrive.

and likely a strong Ida, if that microwave is correct.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like a TS out there already. Recon might find a fairly strong one by this afternoon!

[DESTRUCTION5]

:uarrow: The crew will find Ida when they arrive.

and likely a strong Ida, if that microwave is correct.

Agreed...This is prob more like 55 MPH and climbing.

[cycloneye]

I have to go,who wants to continue?

HURAKAN,do you have the google maps to track the flight?

URNT15 KNHC 041534
AF303 0111A CYCLONE HDOB 03 20091104
152630 2942N 08932W 4143 07271 0335 -205 -457 333010 010 999 999 03
152700 2940N 08933W 4057 07429 0340 -218 -458 317007 008 999 999 03
152730 2938N 08933W 3992 07555 0355 -226 -469 292008 009 999 999 03
152800 2936N 08933W 3945 07639 0363 -232 -487 297010 010 999 999 03
152830 2934N 08932W 3894 07740 0367 -238 -498 309012 012 999 999 03
152900 2932N 08932W 3848 07828 0372 -244 -504 318012 012 999 999 03
152930 2930N 08931W 3810 07899 0376 -248 -508 322013 013 999 999 03
153000 2928N 08931W 3766 07982 0380 -253 -511 324014 015 999 999 03
153030 2926N 08930W 3724 08068 0381 -256 -513 311011 012 999 999 03
153100 2924N 08930W 3676 08157 0381 -263 -516 289009 010 999 999 03
153130 2922N 08929W 3627 08253 0384 -269 -519 265012 013 999 999 03
153200 2920N 08929W 3592 08321 0387 -273 -522 263016 018 999 999 03
153230 2919N 08928W 3557 08393 0390 -277 -525 264018 019 999 999 03
153300 2917N 08928W 3528 08456 0395 -280 -528 266021 022 999 999 03
153330 2915N 08927W 3501 08506 0394 -279 -530 262027 028 999 999 03
153400 2913N 08927W 3471 08568 0396 -277 -532 261031 033 999 999 03
153430 2911N 08926W 3451 08612 0399 -277 -532 260033 033 999 999 03
153500 2909N 08925W 3441 08634 0400 -280 -527 258033 033 999 999 03
153530 2907N 08925W 3441 08633 0399 -280 -522 257032 032 999 999 03
153600 2905N 08924W 3441 08629 0397 -280 -521 255032 033 999 999 03