WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[rednas]

It feels so hot here. Is that a bad sign?

[ozonepete]

It feels so hot here. Is that a bad sign?

No. That's just because you have very light or calm winds - no breeze to cool you off. This often happens just before the winds pick up.

[oaba09]

It feels so hot here. Is that a bad sign?

it means a typhoon is coming

[oaba09]

WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 14.7N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 14.9N 120.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 14.8N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 14.6N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 14.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 13.1N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 125.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

[ozonepete]

WTPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 125.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 125.9E
---

Sorry - that does not look like a 90KT typhoon. 75KT, maybe 80KT.
CIMSS has:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 982.0mb/ 61.0kt

61KT is obviously too low, but 90KT is definitely too high.

[Derek Ortt]

I said in my evening PNJ.com column this is an 80KT storm

[ozonepete]

I said in my evening PNJ.com column this is an 80KT storm

That's much more realistic. I'll have to go look at PNJ. Thanks, Derek.

[cycloneye]

News about the preparations from Bloomberg News.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... 2jff_J9ynk

Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Philippines authorities ordered schools to close and stockpiled relief goods throughout Luzon, as Typhoon Mirinae bore down on the archipelago, where about 1,100 people have died in tropical cyclones this year.

Primary and secondary schools in most parts of Luzon were suspended after Storm Signal No. 2 was raised for the island, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said on its Web site today. The signal means winds of between 60 and 100 kilometers (60 miles) per hour are expected.

The Philippines has been battered by more than 10 cyclones this year, according to the council’s Web site. More than 121,000 people remain in evacuation centers after two cyclones barreled into Luzon, the most populous island, since Sept. 26.

Mirinae’s eye was located 547 kilometers east of the city of Casiguran on eastern Luzon at 4 a.m. local time today, the Philippines weather office said.

The storm has maximum sustained winds of 150 kph, with gusts to 185 kph, and was moving west-southwest at 22 kph, the office said.

Mirinae, referred to as Santi in the Philippines, is forecast to make landfall east of Manila after 2 a.m. tomorrow and sweep across the capital before heading over the South China Sea, according to the agency’s forecast.

The typhoon’s expected landfall coincides with All Saints’ weekend, when many Filipinos travel by boat and other means to their home provinces.

The Philippine Coast Guard yesterday sent rescue divers to the eastern coast of Luzon and to areas on the western coast where Mirinae is forecast to exit the island.

As many as 800 people were killed after a ferry sank in June last year when Typhoon Fengshen slammed into the archipelago of more than 7,000 islands.

[cycloneye]

00:00Z Prognostic Reasoning by JTWC

WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON MIRINAE HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AND SUSTAINED AN INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS.
THOUGH THE CYCLONE STILL HAS SOME WESTWARD BLOWING CONVECTION,
INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, A SMALL
ANTICYCLONE ALOFT HAS ENABLED CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW. WHILE
MIRINAE WAS PREVIOUSLY MAINTAINING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST PATTERN
THAT MADE POSITIONING USING INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY DIFFICULT,
IT HAS RECENTLY STARTED TO DEVELOP MORE OF A BANDING EYE FEATURE.
THEREFORE, IN COMBINATION WITH THE 292259Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE, THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
SIMILARLY, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONSISTENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES OF 90 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. TYPHOON MIRINAE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 18
AND SLOW SLIGHTLY (BY APPROXIMATELY 2-3 KNOTS) IN FORWARD TRACK
SPEED WHILE DECREASING BY 15 TO 20 KNOTS IN INTENSITY. AFTER TAU 24,
MIRINAE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON A WESTWARD TRACK
AND CONTINUE TO STEADILY WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMBINATION OF
EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS (MID-LEVELS) AND
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INDUCED BY AN EARLY-SEASON COLD SURGE.
C. MIRINAE WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH-CENTRAL VIETNAM JUST
AFTER TAU 72 AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER LAND AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 96. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. HOWEVER, SOME OF
THE MODEL AIDS, INCLUDING THE JAPANESE SOLUTION, TAKE THE SYSTEM
JUST SOUTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES AND TOWARDS HO CHI MINH CITY,
VIETNAM.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

CDO building up once again, but still no clear, visible eye - pretty sure it's too late - too close to land. I'm sticking to my forecast of landfall around Quezon City/north Manila, with 75KTs between 1AM and 5AM Friday night/Saturday morning local time. Rains should be really intense, unfortunately, and it seems pretty inevitable there'll be some serious flooding and mudslides.

Good luck you guys. I gotta turn in.
Thanks, cycloneye, breeze, and hurakan for the watchful eyes.

[breeze]

Have a good night, ozonepete. I've got to turn in for the night, too.

All of our friends in Philippines, keep watch!

[cycloneye]

Pagasa 11 AM Local Time Warning=Signal #3 for Northern Quezon,Pollillo Islands,Metro Manila stays at Signal #2

Severe Weather Bulletin Number SEVEN
Tropical Cyclone Warning: Typhoon "SANTI" (MIRINAE)
Issued at 11:00 a.m., Friday, 30 October 2009 Typhoon "SANTI" continues to threaten Aurora-Quezon area.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 a.m.) 350 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon

Coordinates: 15.2°N, 125.3°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph

Movement: West at 22 kph

Forecast Positions/Outlook: Saturday morning:
70 kms West Northwest of Metro Manila or
in the vicinity of Zambales
Sunday morning:
600 kms West of Metro Manila or
over the South China Sea

Code: Select all

Signal No.3

(100-185 kph winds)  Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands
 
Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)  Aurora
Quirino
Nueva Ecija
Bulacan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Rizal
Cavite
Laguna
Batangas
Lubang Is.
Rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila
 
Signal No. 1

(30-60 kph winds)  Isabela
Ifugao
Nueva Vizcaya
Benguet
La Union
Pangasinan
Albay
Burias Is.
Sorsogon
Marinduque
Oriental Mindoro
Occidental Mindoro
Calamian Group


[dexterlabio]

TPPN10 PGTW 300301

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 30/0230Z

C. 15.0N

D. 124.8E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/2134Z 15.2N 126.6E SSMI
29/2259Z 15.3N 126.3E SSMS
30/0110Z 15.0N 125.4E TRMM


BRANDON

seems like the center of mirinae can now be determined easily, unlike the last couple of hours. i dunno if the tiny hole i saw in the latest mtsat ir image of navy/nrl cyclone page is the "eye" already.

[Crostorm]

A good link http://www.cyclonextreme.com/cyclonemon ... ursbis.htm

[dataclese]

Hydrological Forecast for Manila Region (are they updating this?):

METRO MANILA SUB-BASIN

Hydrological Forecast

Issued at 6:00 AM, 30 October 2009

(Valid Until the next issuance at 6:00 am tomorrow)

Observed Rainfall:

NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN WAS RECORDED OVER THE SUB-BASIN DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.

Forecast Rainfall:

SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Expected Hydrological Response:

RIVER WATER LEVELS WITHIN THE AREA TO REMAIN IN NORMAL CONDITION WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

[Crostorm]

[leanne_uk]

I just hope all our members who are over there get thru this okay. Thinkin of everyone that will be effected x

[drdavisjr]

so far it's not even raining...but I know this is only temporary

[beaufort12]

Looks like our Luzon friends in the path have lost their connectivity.