WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[drdavisjr]

the convection is getting bigger...wow

Yes, lots of wter

[oaba09]

the convection is getting bigger...wow

Yes, lots of wter

And it's still moving wsw.....shouldn't it be moving westwards by now???

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -


Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)

[drdavisjr]

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -


Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)

I just don't see how they can say the center is at 15.9N...

[drdavisjr]

[oaba09]

<Analyses at 29/15 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N15°55'(15.9°)
E128°30'(128.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 110km(60NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N370km(200NM)
S220km(120NM)
<Forecast for 30/15 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°10'(15.2°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 240km(130NM)
<Forecast for 31/12 UTC>
Intensity -


Center position of probability circle N15°30'(15.5°)
E118°55'(118.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 310km(170NM)
<Forecast for 01/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°05'(15.1°)
E113°30'(113.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)

I just don't see how they can say the center is at 15.9N...

My throughts too...JTWC has it at 15.7(might actually be lower now)

[oaba09]

Look at that convection...wow....the center is at the same level of metro manila right???

[drdavisjr]

Look at that convection...wow....the center is at the same level of metro manila right???

It might be a little higher.

[drdavisjr]

it seems to be really organized now...

man, i'm headed to bed...maybe in the morning things will look better...good night (have a good afternoon storm2k)

[JTE50]

Where do you guys think this typhoon will bottom out? 15 degrees? 16 degrees? According to my GPS mapping software Manila is about 14.7 on the north end.

[breeze]

From Dr. Jeff Master's blog at Weather Underground:

Posted by: JeffMasters, 2:14 PM GMT on October 29, 2009

Category 2 Typhoon Mirinae continues to trek westward towards the Philippine Islands, but has not intensified and may be weaker than advertised. Latest infrared satellite loops show no eye, and little change to the areal extent, organization, and temperature of the cloud tops over the past six hours. Satellite estimates of Mirinae's intensity declined over the past twelve hours, and support a Category 1 typhoon. Microwave imagery shows no eyewall, and it appears wind shear has managed to disrupt the inner core. Wind shear remains a moderate 15 knots, and the ocean temperatures are very warm, 29°C. With environmental conditions forecast not forecast to undergo any major changes over the next two days, Mirinae should be somewhere between a Category 1 and Category 3 typhoon when it makes landfall on Friday afternoon (EDT). The main threat from the storm will be heavy rains, and Mirinae is currently producing maximum rains of about eight inches per day along its track (Figure 1). The mountains of Luzon Island will cause additional uplift and lead to higher rain amounts as the typhoon passes over, and rain amounts in excess of twelve inches near Mirinae's core will cause serious flooding and dangerous mudslides. The ground is still flooded and the dams brimming full from the previous two typhoons to hit the Philippines over the past five weeks, so Mirinae will probably cause much heavier damage than is usual for a typhoon of its intensity. The typhoon is forecast to pass within 200 miles of the capital of Manila, where flood water from the September 26 deluge of Typhoon Ketsana is still standing in the streets of some suburban areas. More than one million people are living in flooded districts near Manila.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1365

[oaba09]

Where do you guys think this typhoon will bottom out? 15 degrees? 16 degrees? According to my GPS mapping software Manila is about 14.7 on the north end.

The consensus right now is the lower 15 degrees(15.2, 15.3, or 15.4)

[Derek Ortt]

this finally looks like a legit category 2 typhoon

[JTE50]

Where do you guys think this typhoon will bottom out? 15 degrees? 16 degrees? According to my GPS mapping software Manila is about 14.7 on the north end.

The consensus right now is the lower 15 degrees(15.2, 15.3, or 15.4)

Looks like I won't have to drive very far, 60 miles at most

[Derek Ortt]

However, on the microwave, it looks like a 40KT tropical storm, and the nighttime visible is inconclusive... though I lean toward the tropical storm solution with that.

The system may have been decoupled by the easterly wind shear and if so, that would be great news. Need a few more hours of sat imagery to be sure, though

[oaba09]

However, on the microwave, it looks like a 40KT tropical storm, and the nighttime visible is inconclusive... though I lean toward the tropical storm solution with that.

The system may have been decoupled by the easterly wind shear and if so, that would be great news. Need a few more hours of sat imagery to be sure, though

What do you think about the direction? seems to be moving wsw to me but I'm not sure...

[Derek Ortt]

looks due west to me

[oaba09]

looks due west to me

maybe the enlarging of the convection is just tricking my eyes........

[Weather_boi]

Areas with storm signals as of 11 PM PAGASA Update

[ozonepete]

Hey Hurakan, cycloneye, what happened to the Navy site? I'm trying to find the satellite/microwave page and I can't get to it. Anyone know what's going on?