WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[breeze]

And, Google translator does a terrible job translating Tagalog...

[oaba09]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

Basically, he's saying that MAYBE the STR is man made....

My opinion:That's impossible........

[ricmood]

Baka naman gawa ng tao na yang STR na yan. Panahon pa kase ni parma andyan na yan eh. kaya nga hindi makataas si parma noon at tatlong beses pa nagpabalik-balik satin. Tapos ngayon kay santi STR na naman. NCR pa dadaanan.

Alam ko imposible pero masyado na kase frustating ang nangyayari. Hehe. Nagiging tawiran tayo ng bagyo sa Pilipinas samantalang yung mga bansa sa taas natin protektadong protektado ng STR na yan. Pag yung bagong sama ng panahn sa Guam satin pa dumaan...naku na talaga. hehehehe

This is from wikipedia. You be the judge of what you're trying to imply if it's possible or not...

The subtropical ridge (STR) is a large belt of high pressure situated around the latitudes of 30°N in the Northern Hemisphere and 30°S in the Southern Hemisphere. It is characterized by mostly calm winds, which acts to reduce air quality under its axis by causing fog overnight, and haze during daylight hours caused by the stable atmosphere found near its location. Air flows out from its center toward the upper and lower latitudes of each hemisphere, creating both the trade winds and the westerlies. It moves poleward during the summer, reaching its most northern latitude in early fall, before moving equatorward during the cold season. The ENSO climate cycle can displace the subtropical ridge, with La Niñas allowing for a more northerly axis for the ridge, while El Niños show flatter, more southerly ridges. The change of the ridge position during ENSO cycles changes tracks of tropical cyclones which form around their southern and western peripheries. As the subtropical ridge varies in position and strength, it can enhance or depress monsoon regimes around their southern periphery.

I know, that's why I said "imposible". I thought it will be humorous for us Filipinos. Guess not...
Will delete my Tagalog post.

Back to Manila's impending doom discussion...

[metenthusiast]

And, Google translator does a terrible job translating Tagalog...

Yup. Imagine this: "Kabiyak"(Ka-biyak) which is a deeper tagalog word for wife, husband, or spouse wouldn't be translated as such... it would be more likely translated as "The Other Piece"

[HURAKAN]

90 knots? Based on the inner structure of this storm, maybe it's a little high.

[metenthusiast]

Rain rate...

[metenthusiast]

Latest

[drdavisjr]

Back to Manila's impending doom discussion...

ricmood, i too am frustrated and honestly, scared.

I have a wife and three beautiful kids that are depending on me to get them through this...

My friend, your frustration is all our frustration tonight

[metenthusiast]

WTPN32 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 15.7N 129.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7N 129.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.4N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 15.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 15.3N 121.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 15.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 15.0N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 13.8N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 13.5N 105.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
291500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 128.7E.
TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 292100Z, 300300Z, 300900Z AND 301500Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

2009OCT29 123000 15.60 -128.74 SPRL
2009OCT29 125700 15.52 -128.50 SPRL
2009OCT29 133000 15.50 -128.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 135700 15.29 -128.58 SPRL

[metenthusiast]

2009OCT29 123000 15.60 -128.74 SPRL
2009OCT29 125700 15.52 -128.50 SPRL
2009OCT29 133000 15.50 -128.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 135700 15.29 -128.58 SPRL

I am watching sat loops and I thought my eyes are playing tricks on me because it seems to be moving WSW and much lower than the forecast track. Based on that data, it is indeed moving WSW...

[oaba09]

2009OCT29 123000 15.60 -128.74 SPRL
2009OCT29 125700 15.52 -128.50 SPRL
2009OCT29 133000 15.50 -128.38 SPRL
2009OCT29 135700 15.29 -128.58 SPRL

I am watching sat loops and I thought my eyes are playing tricks on me because it seems to be moving WSW and much lower than the forecast track. Based on that data, it is indeed moving WSW...

I'm guessing that we'll get a direct hit...

[drdavisjr]

[ricmood]

Oh man! Please give us some northwest action...

[drdavisjr]

oaba09, why do I get the feeling this storm is getting stronger, quickly?

[oaba09]

oaba09, why do I get the feeling this storm is getting stronger, quickly?

Sorry I'm not the right person to comment on that since I still don't know how to analyze a storm's strength based on sat loops....The JMA advisory will be coming in a few minutes, let's wait for that..

[ricmood]

16.2°N, 128.5°E according to pagasa

[oaba09]

Typhoon "SANTI" has maintained its strength as it continues to move towards Central Luzon.
Location of Center:
(as of 10:00 p.m.) 660 km East of Baler, Aurora
Coordinates: 16.2°N, 128.5°E
Strength: Maximum sustained winds of 150 kph near the center
and gustiness of up to 185 kph
Movement: West at 22 kph
Forecast Positions/Outlook: Friday evening:
180 km East of Baler, Aurora
Saturday evening:
240 km West Northwest of Manila
Sunday evening:
800 km West of Manila

Signal No. 2
(60-100 kph winds)
Aurora
Quirino
Nueve Ecija
Bulacan
Rizal
Northern Quezon
Polillo Island

Signal No. 1
(30-60 kph winds)
Isabela
Ifugao
Benguet
Nueva Vizcaya
La Union
Pangasinan
Tarlac
Zambales
Pampanga
Bataan
Laguna
Cavite
Batangas
Lubang Is.
rest of Quezon
Camarines Norte
Camarines Sur
Catanduanes
Metro Manila

[oaba09]

16.2°N, 128.5°E according to pagasa

They have the incorrect info. 15.7 and 128.9 per JTWC....PAGASA probably can't correctly locate the typhoon's center...also based on sat loops, it's still moving WSW...

TPPN10 PGTW 291509

A. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 15.7N

D. 128.9E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0930Z 15.8N 129.8E WIND
29/1019Z 15.8N 129.9E TRMM
29/1023Z 15.9N 130.0E SSMS


UEHARA

[oaba09]

the convection is getting bigger...wow