WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[oaba09]

Jim, the new forecasts show a hit nearer manila

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[cycloneye]

Lets see how Pagasa has its new track when the 11 AM local time in the Phillippines comes out.

[oaba09]

We have dark skies in metro manila right now....It seems like these are the clouds brought by mirinae...a sign of things to come................What worries me is the fact that our city(Valenzuela) is located at the northern most part of metro manila

[Macrocane]

In microwave it looks better organized than several hours ago and the outflow pattern is very impressive, I think that if the trend continues winds may reach 100 kt (1 min). Even if it doesn't strengthens it will remain a dangerous system so people shouldn't let their guard down, I know the members of this board are carefully monitoring the system and I hope that other people in Philippines are taking this seriously too.

[ozonepete]

We have dark skies in metro manila right now....It seems like these are the clouds brought by mirinae...a sign of things to come................What worries me is the fact that our city(Valenzuela) is located at the northern most part of metro manila

C'mon, guy, we've taught you a lot here. Those are not clouds from MIRINAE. You can see that by looking at the satellite loops. MIRINAE's clouds will be there soon enough (within 12 hours).

[oaba09]

We have dark skies in metro manila right now....It seems like these are the clouds brought by mirinae...a sign of things to come................What worries me is the fact that our city(Valenzuela) is located at the northern most part of metro manila

C'mon, guy, we've taught you a lot here. Those are not clouds from MIRINAE. You can see that by looking at the satellite loops. MIRINAE's clouds will be there soon enough (within 12 hours).

I know...I meant clouds pushed by mirinae......It's not a direct effect but the skies has been dark all morning

[ozonepete]

00:00Z JTWC Warning=90kts

Jim,track a little more south for you to take this one and JMA as you arrive at Manila.The 00:00z track passes 42 miles north of Manila.


[/b]

Yes, listen to cycloneye. I would now not go north of BALER, which is not that far north of Manila - 5 or 6 hours I think. Hey my friends, how far is that?

[drdavisjr]

Ok, please forgive us if we sound a bit panicky, because we are

[ozonepete]

We have dark skies in metro manila right now....It seems like these are the clouds brought by mirinae...a sign of things to come................What worries me is the fact that our city(Valenzuela) is located at the northern most part of metro manila

C'mon, guy, we've taught you a lot here. Those are not clouds from MIRINAE. You can see that by looking at the satellite loops. MIRINAE's clouds will be there soon enough (within 12 hours).

I know...I meant clouds pushed by mirinae......It's not a direct effect but the skies has been dark all morning

I know too! I wish I was there.

[Macrocane]

It seems to me that some of the cirrus clouds related to Mirinae's outflow are already reaching the coast of the Philippines but my amateur eyes may be tricking me.

[cycloneye]

Below is the first signal warning by Pagasa at 5 AM.

Code: Select all

PSWS #  Luzon  Visayas  Mindanao 
Signal No. 1       None      None
(30-60 kph winds)  Isabela
Aurora
Northern Quezon
Polillo Islands   

 
 Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signal #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 a.m. today. 
 


[oaba09]

I know too! I wish I was there.

In the Philippines, if you're a storm chaser, you don't need to travel a lot....The typhoons come right at ya........

[ozonepete]

Guys,

Any forecasted amount of rainfall Miranae would bring to Manila say it continues to its current track?
Just a newbie here in the forum...

Saw a post earlier stating "it is producing strong convection and that could mean heavy rains",
Is there an image of this where I could see this as part of the typhoon?

Sorry a lot of questions, really want to learn from you guys.
Thanks.

Hey, nice to meet you. Sorry we haven't given you a better answer but there's a lot going on right now. The answer is that it's still too early to tell right now, but in a typhoon of 100 knot intensity and this character (satellite imagery) it is quite normal to receive at least 5 inches (127 mm) or so of rain, but it could be much higher. Also, due to the complex geographics of Manila (mountains and vallleys) this is a really difficult thing to forecast. I would think that PAGASA will give you better forecasts as the storm gets closer. And please remember that we can't give forecasts of this nature that are any better than what you'll get from your local governments. The science is still very inexact. Sorry we can't help more.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

It seems to me that some of the cirrus clouds related to Mirinae's outflow are already reaching the coast of the Philippines but my amateur eyes may be tricking me.

That sounds "spot on" to me.

[breeze]

Ok, please forgive us if we sound a bit panicky, because we are

I can only imagine the feeling, having never gone through a typhoon/hurricane - my nerves
would be shattered! I think you are all handling this well, and learning about the storm so that
you will be as prepared as possible.

[oaba09]

Ok, please forgive us if we sound a bit panicky, because we are

I can only imagine the feeling, having never gone through a typhoon/hurricane - my nerves
would be shattered! I think you are all handling this well, and learning about the storm so that
you will be as prepared as possible.

We're prepared...it's the uninformed people we're concerned about.....

[Aslkahuna]

Based on the track at about 16.1N best location for an intercept would be around Dingalan Bay or between there and Baler. That track lies along the base of the northern mountains and comes out between Dagupan and San Fernando La Union. Intensity will be the main key here. DMIA (Old Clark Field) will be protected by the mountains to the West so may not bring much more than 40-50 kt gusts (STY Rita took the same track which passes 48 miles north of DMIA in 1978 and brought 58kt gusts but it was a much stronger storm at landfall). Manila and Subic open to the South China Sea will see stronger gusts and heavier rains. If rapid motion continues, the storm effects will be relatively short in duration.

Steve

[oaba09]

00:00Z JTWC Warning=90kts

Jim,track a little more south for you to take this one and JMA as you arrive at Manila.The 00:00z track passes 42 miles north of Manila.


[/b]

Yes, listen to cycloneye. I would now not go north of BALER, which is not that far north of Manila - 5 or 6 hours I think. Hey my friends, how far is that?

I'm not sure but I'm guessing about 5-7 hours.....

[ozonepete]

I know too! I wish I was there.

In the Philippines, if you're a storm chaser, you don't need to travel a lot....The typhoons come right at ya........

Sure looks like you won't have to go anywhere to see most of this one, my friend. Just promise you won't worry so much. And I promise we will all be here to provide information as we can, and remember, the mountains to your east DO offer a lot of protection. As far as the rains go, you know this is very serious so I hope you have your evacuation plans ready. You do, right? And do you have plans on how to get in communication with your loved ones and maybe even us if you get separated? I hope so.