WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[metenthusiast]

Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.

Sorry Jim. We're used on saying STR because Sub Tropical Ridge is quite a mouthful...

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=85kts

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 135.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 135.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.5N 132.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.4N 129.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.4N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.4N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.4N 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.4N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 15.8N 109.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 16.4N 134.6E.
TYPHOON (TY) 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 850 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 23 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.
//
NNNN

[oaba09]

I see that they're sticking w/ a westwards movement unlike JMA......

[JTE50]

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.[/quote]

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.[/quote]

Sorry Jim. We're used on saying STR because Sub Tropical Ridge is quite a mouthful... [/quote]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?

[oaba09]

I dont think that's possible. The STR aka High Pressure Area is like a big dome of hot air which spins in a clockwise direction. Mirinae is currently positioned south to southeast of it, hence, the westward motion.

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.[/quote]

Sorry Jim. We're used on saying STR because Sub Tropical Ridge is quite a mouthful... [/quote]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?[/quote]

I'm no expert but I think the STR will be strong enough to make the typhoon go WSW.....the best thing you can do is wait for tomorrow's forecast because I believe JMA is expecting a WSW movement w/in the last 24 hours.............

[metenthusiast]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?

Me? All I'm certain right now is that I have a real bad feeling in the pit of my stomach...

[cycloneye]

Here is what the press in the Philiphines is saying about Mirinae/Santi.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingne ... sday-night

[JTE50]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?

Me? All I'm certain right now is that I have a real bad feeling in the pit of my stomach...

My thoughts are the same, since the ridge is strong it's coming to the Luzon area. JTWC shows a steady increase in strength right up until landfall, so it's going to be on the "up" as we storm chasers say. That's very bad because they don't weaken as quickly as one on the way down or one in a steady state. Both sides north and south of the storm are going to dump lots of rain on Luzon. If it spins up real fast it has the chance of hitting during an eyewall replacement cycle and being a bit weaker. If JTWC is right it's going to be bad for all those folks that live along the highway. The rice paddies will be flooded and the corn blown over. Not to mention the wind damage to structures. There's so much area the relief agencies can't possibly cover it all. I hope I can get up there and get video out.

[drdavisjr]

Here is what the press in the Philiphines is saying about Mirinae/Santi.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/breakingne ... sday-night

cycloneye, that is pathetic...Tropical Storm??

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

PAGASA is still showing Lupit updates...

[oaba09]

:uarrow:

cycloneye, that is pathetic...Tropical Storm??

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

PAGASA is still showing Lupit updates...

Yeah.....I'm still waiting for their 1st advisory............

[metenthusiast]

:uarrow:

cycloneye, that is pathetic...Tropical Storm??

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/tcupdate.shtml

PAGASA is still showing Lupit updates...

Yeah.....I'm still waiting for their 1st advisory............

Actually, they're already hinting and admitting Mirinae's true strength... although not on their official advisory yet.

http://www.gmanews.tv/story/175807/santi-intensifies-into-typhoon-to-intensify-further

[oaba09]

Getting affected by the STR

[Weather_boi]

I see folks using STR a lot - How about just HPR for High Pressure Ridge or just "Ridge". I can't figure out what the S T and R mean. Sometimes forums (not this one) go crazy with the Acronyms and the new folks are clueless.

Sorry Jim. We're used on saying STR because Sub Tropical Ridge is quite a mouthful...

LOL i agree

[ozonepete]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?

Hi Jim. The difference in those two tracks is very small (less than a 100 miles), especially for three days out. And that's because virtually all of the models are very tightly clustered so far.
There is nothing right now that I can see that could tell you whether it will come in at Planan, Casaguran or Baler, or even the Polillo Islands. We will only be able to get a good fix when it's 24 hours away or so.
So your positioning strategy should be relatively easy at this point (though your movements could really be hampered by the holiday travelers and weather of course.) If I were doing this (and boy I wish I was!) I would go to Tuguegarao first thing after you get to Manila, since it's the farthest away. Then if the track shifts south, you can move down the coast towards it.
My personal best guess for landfall right now is Baler, but that's just for now at 3 days away.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[metenthusiast]

Oh, it's Sub Tropical Ridge - got it! Thanks. Now who thinks the lower track JMA forecast will pan out over the JTWC?

Hi Jim. The difference in those two tracks is very small (less than a 100 miles), especially for three days out. And that's because virtually all of the models are very tightly clustered so far.
There is nothing right now that I can see that could tell you whether it will come in at Planan, Casaguran or Baler, or even the Polillo Islands. We will only be able to get a good fix when it's 24 hours away or so.
So your positioning strategy should be relatively easy at this point (though your movements could really be hampered by the holiday travelers and weather of course.) If I were doing this (and boy I wish I was!) I would go to Tuguegarao first thing after you get to Manila, since it's the farthest away. Then if the track shifts south, you can move down the coast towards it.
My personal best guess for landfall right now is Baler, but that's just for now at 3 days away.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

And Jim, I might suggest you'd be better off hiring a private vehicle for the duration of your stay, or your chase at least. Public transport here in the Philippines is a nightmare during holidays. And in this case, all saints day.

[dexterlabio]

what happened to its circulation? i think it will get more organized and intensify once it traverses the philippine sea. it's not yet intensifying that much, and maybe the ridging ahead of mirinae hinders intensification, or the diminishing poleward outflow.

[drdavisjr]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

[metenthusiast]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

That's lower than jtwc's and jma's forecast, and definitely hitting Manila.

[oaba09]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

If I'm seeing it correctly, that's a southern luzon landfall.......interesting........It will be interesting as to how the forecasts will look tomorrow...

[drdavisjr]

This is ecmwf +72 hr forecast

If I'm seeing it correctly, that's a southern luzon landfall.......interesting........It will be interesting as to how the forecasts will look tomorrow...

True, but notice that it is category 1 typhoon, if not tropical storm. This would indicate that the ridge was strong enough to drive it southwest (obviously) and weaken it substantially.