WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[drdavisjr]

mirinae appears to be continuously moving westwards as of the moment......

Whereas the ridge isn't getting weaker, only stronger. If this ridge holds, it will drive Mirinae right down the middle of Metro Manila.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ManilaTC]

Here is my bet on this. if the storm at any point before 130 deg is just above 15N and is on a W-WSW trend, then prepare for the worst.

I believe that the ridge has just started to block mirinae (thus the westerly track) and its still not fully enforcing its strength. i think the dive will start past 135 deg.

[dexterlabio]

going steady to the west. this could be the general direction of mirinae, not gaining latitude, with a possible wsw movement tomorrow.

[oaba09]

My analysis of the JTWC path:

I think they are downplaying the possible effect of the subtropical ridge to mirinae. I'm guessing that they don't think the STR will be strong enough to "push" the typhoon to a WSW direction. If you look at their latest track, it seems like they are expecting mirinae to move purely westwards. This is interesting because currently, the system is moving below JTWC's track. Also, some models are expecting a "dive" going west south west..........It will be interesting to observe mirinae's movement in the next couple of hours.......MIRINAE currently has 85 knots of max sustained winds w/c is equivalent to 157 kph(1 minute average)..............



***DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH***

[drdavisjr]

My analysis of the JTWC path:

I think they are downplaying the possible effect of the subtropical ridge to mirinae. I'm guessing that they don't think the STR will be strong enough to "push" the typhoon to a WSW direction. If you look at their latest track, it seems like they are expecting mirinae to move purely westwards. This is interesting because currently, the system is moving below JTWC's track. Also, some models are expecting a "dive" going west south west..........It will be interesting to observe mirinae's movement in the next couple of hours.......MIRINAE currently has 85 knots of max sustained winds w/c is equivalent to 157 kph(1 minute average)..............



***DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH***

Considering Manila has a population of 12 million people, if there is ANY CHANCE the storm could hit us, there should be some kind of alert...just my opinion...

[ricmood]

Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

[oaba09]

My analysis of the JTWC path:

I think they are downplaying the possible effect of the subtropical ridge to mirinae. I'm guessing that they don't think the STR will be strong enough to "push" the typhoon to a WSW direction. If you look at their latest track, it seems like they are expecting mirinae to move purely westwards. This is interesting because currently, the system is moving below JTWC's track. Also, some models are expecting a "dive" going west south west..........It will be interesting to observe mirinae's movement in the next couple of hours.......MIRINAE currently has 85 knots of max sustained winds w/c is equivalent to 157 kph(1 minute average)..............



***DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH***

Considering Manila has a population of 12 million people, if there is ANY CHANCE the storm could hit us, there should be some kind of alert...just my opinion...

I agree...It will be interesting to see what PAGASA's 1st advisory will look like...........I hope they DON'T downplay this typhoon.....

[oaba09]

Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

As good as that sounds, it seems impossible because MIRINAE has already hit the STR and it's still moving westwards at a fast speed............

[ricmood]

I think it gained lat based on the last frame.

[oaba09]

[ricmood]

Once it hits that STR, it may stall for a while then recurve northeast. Of course, this is coming from a guy who doesn't know squat about weather forecasting

As good as that sounds, it seems impossible because MIRINAE has already hit the STR and it's still moving westwards at a fast speed............

Oh, maybe deeper in the STR. Still don't want to lose hope.

[ManilaTC]

I think it gained lat based on the last frame.

When using loops to check the position of the eye, it may not be best to check on the hourly positions. There is such a thing as eye wobble. the storm may look to be moving in one direction but its not.

for forecasting trends, it may be best that we consider 3hr to 6hr trends.

[dexterlabio]

the room is still open for all possibilities however, the possibility of mirinae to recurve is low. the STR has already made an effect on mirinae's motion that's why it's moving westward. adding the fact that the str is building stronger by the minute, a dive to the wsw is possible.

[drdavisjr]

It'll be curious to see if they follow their model

PAGASA

[oaba09]

I think it gained lat based on the last frame.

You probably saw a wobble

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[dexterlabio]

16.3N 136.3E

SANTI is about to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The first weather bulletin for Santi might be issued later this evening or tomorrow morning.

My analysis of the JTWC path:

I think they are downplaying the possible effect of the subtropical ridge to mirinae. I'm guessing that they don't think the STR will be strong enough to "push" the typhoon to a WSW direction. If you look at their latest track, it seems like they are expecting mirinae to move purely westwards. This is interesting because currently, the system is moving below JTWC's track. Also, some models are expecting a "dive" going west south west..........It will be interesting to observe mirinae's movement in the next couple of hours.......MIRINAE currently has 85 knots of max sustained winds w/c is equivalent to 157 kph(1 minute average)..............



***DISCLAIMER:THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST AND SHOULD NOT BE USED AS SUCH***

Considering Manila has a population of 12 million people, if there is ANY CHANCE the storm could hit us, there should be some kind of alert...just my opinion...

I agree...It will be interesting to see what PAGASA's 1st advisory will look like...........I hope they DON'T downplay this typhoon.....

i have this feeling that they will :| they have always been like that. i hope they will do a good job for this time around.

i just want to share my thoughts. before, when lupit is threatening luzon, everyone became weary of it and even if lupit is still a thousand kilometers away, people are already preparing. now that mirinae is threatening luzon, people seem to be numb. they might have already reacted too much with the past 3 storms and they don't know what to react now with this 4th one O_O

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[ManilaTC]

The PAGASA though indirectly, through a news reporter, projected 2 scenarios.
A straight track or one brushing metro manila.

[cycloneye]

Pagasa will start in the morning of the 29th their warnings.Anyone has the link to Pagasa?