WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[dexterlabio]

also, on the nighttime visible, the center is closer to 16N right now. Still moving quickly to the WNW

if it is near 16N and still moving WNW, then do you think Mirinae will be much closer to the northern portions of Luzon rather than here in metropolis?

[oaba09]

also, on the nighttime visible, the center is closer to 16N right now. Still moving quickly to the WNW

if it is near 16N and still moving WNW, then do you think Mirinae will be much closer to the northern portions of Luzon rather than here in metropolis?

I think it would be better if we wait for tomorrow's forecasts..............IMO, I think the STR will be strong enough to "push" MIRINAE south of the actual track.............I think the JMA forecast is more accurate.......

[ozonepete]

Right about that! I was just wondering whether Saturday would be the "Day"?

Yes. Looks like Saturday morning your time right now. (2009-10-31 00Z)

Thanks! I guess I'd better call the dialysis clinic and re-schedule for Friday.

That would be very smart. I highly doubt this one will miss you, and there is a decent chance you could get a high impact because the center could come quite close to you, unfortunately.

[ozonepete]

also, on the nighttime visible, the center is closer to 16N right now. Still moving quickly to the WNW

if it is near 16N and still moving WNW, then do you think Mirinae will be much closer to the northern portions of Luzon rather than here in metropolis?

I think it would be better if we wait for tomorrow's forecasts..............IMO, I think the STR will be strong enough to "push" MIRINAE south of the actual track.............I think the JMA forecast is more accurate.......

Smart man!

[drdavisjr]

If by Friday morning JMA hasn't radically changed their forecast, then me and my wife are going out and buying 2 weeks worth of food, candles, etc. This is NO JOKE. If a super typhoon hits even close to Manila from the east, gentlemen, we are in trouble. Make no mistake about it

[dexterlabio]

^ haha. i agree. i might even be surprised by tomorrow's forecast. if the models come up with a better unified solution, then that's most likely it.

[ozonepete]

So continue preparing for 115-125KT if you are in the Philippines

Derek, are you saying this could be a super typhoon at landfall?

No. He said 115-125KT. A supertyphoon by the unofficial JTWC measure, is 130 knots or 150mph.

[Derek Ortt]

also, on the nighttime visible, the center is closer to 16N right now. Still moving quickly to the WNW

if it is near 16N and still moving WNW, then do you think Mirinae will be much closer to the northern portions of Luzon rather than here in metropolis?

depends upon how strong the ridge is

[dexterlabio]

before i go to bed here's the latest satfix from jtwc

TPPN10 PGTW 271459

A. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE)

B. 27/1430Z

C. 15.8N

D. 141.2E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
27/1034Z 15.5N 142.3E TRMM


KIENZLE

so it's confirmed that it tracked relatively westwards. i have no idea if there's a change in intensity, but in my opinion, it should already be around 50-55kts. i think a 40-45kts system with a microwave eye is unbelievable. maybe there will be some adjustments to be done.

[Derek Ortt]

If by Friday morning JMA hasn't radically changed their forecast, then me and my wife are going out and buying 2 weeks worth of food, candles, etc. This is NO JOKE. If a super typhoon hits even close to Manila from the east, gentlemen, we are in trouble. Make no mistake about it

the typhoon would probably weaken 2 to 3 categories before reaching Manilla as it would have to cross high mountains first

now a hit from the west would be a different story altogether

[ozonepete]

OK, Derek I agree with all of what you're saying. But what about that dry air? The models still don't do well with nearby mid level dry air entrainment, do they?

[drdavisjr]

Storm formed near eastern Visayas named "Sudai"

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226748/ne ... tro-manila

Typical misinformation...

[HURAKAN]

Solid storm

[cycloneye]

If SSD Dvorak is right,we have a typhoon.

27/1430 UTC 15.7N 141.3E T4.0/4.0 MIRINAE -- West Pacific


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

[oaba09]

Storm formed near eastern Visayas named "Sudai"

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226748/ne ... tro-manila

Typical misinformation...

Where the hell did they get those info??? They're giving people false information.......

[drdavisjr]

Storm formed near eastern Visayas named "Sudai"

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226748/ne ... tro-manila

Typical misinformation...

Where the hell did they get those info??? They're giving people false information.......

I think they are trying to cover up their visayas landfall prediction...

[oaba09]

Storm formed near eastern Visayas named "Sudai"

http://www.mb.com.ph/articles/226748/ne ... tro-manila

Typical misinformation...

Where the hell did they get those info??? They're giving people false information.......

I think they are trying to cover up their visayas landfall prediction...

Now that's just pathetic.......Can't they even admit when they make mistakes??

[Macrocane]

So continue preparing for 115-125KT if you are in the Philippines

Derek, are you saying this could be a super typhoon at landfall?

I know you didn't ask me but supertyphoon (an unofficial term) begins when winds reach 130 kt, so he's not saying that, but the possibility exists if it intensifies rapidly.

edit: I just noticed that your question was already answered

[drdavisjr]

Now that's just pathetic.......Can't they even admit when they make mistakes??

It's not just pathetic and disgusting, it's dangerous.

[drdavisjr]

I know you didn't ask me but supertyphoon (an unofficial term) begins when winds reach 130 kt, so he's not saying that, but the possibility exists if it intensifies rapidly.

Thanks! That was for anyone to answer...