WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[metenthusiast]

Ok, I see this now. Thanks for pointing it out.

You're welcome!
Since we're already getting a much clearer picture of things to come, I wonder whether tomorrow's forecast would be much stable and reliable than today?

[drdavisjr]

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.

Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west! ). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.

I agree, it's looking more and more likely a Philippine hit - especially if it's moves south of west. The only good part about the track is it won't be crawling along and dumping a lot more rain - well, that's the way it looks right now. I suppose it's impossible to get to the eastern coast with that mountain range in the way correct?

What about Polillo Island?

[oaba09]

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.

Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west! ). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.

I agree, it's looking more and more likely a Philippine hit - especially if it's moves south of west. The only good part about the track is it won't be crawling along and dumping a lot more rain - well, that's the way it looks right now. I suppose it's impossible to get to the eastern coast with that mountain range in the way correct?

Going back to the Philippines Jim???

I'm not 100% sure but yes, I believe there's no way to get to the eastern coast(someone correct me if I'm wrong)....

[metenthusiast]

Interesting, they have the ridge weakening on day 4 to allow for a west nothwest movement and miss Metro Manila.

Good evening guys! (Good morning to our friends in the west! ). I think it wouldn't matter much whether it would hit Metro Manila directly or not. Based on what I read, this system would intensify into a 115-knot storm before it hits land due to the favorable condition the Philippine Sea would give it. By the time it makes it westward march across the island of Luzon, it has already gained strength that I'm sure won't dissipate that quickly. And the rest I'm leaving to your imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.

I agree, it's looking more and more likely a Philippine hit - especially if it's moves south of west. The only good part about the track is it won't be crawling along and dumping a lot more rain - well, that's the way it looks right now. I suppose it's impossible to get to the eastern coast with that mountain range in the way correct?

I guess so. If the forecast track pushes through and it it hits land to the northeast of Metro Manila, I believe the Sierra Madre Mountain Range would be its welcoming party. But if tracks more SW and earlier than predicted, I guess that would be a different matter altogether.

[oaba09]

What about Polillo Island?

I don't think that will get a direct hit..........

[dexterlabio]

i will consider the forecast track tomorrow. more or less, they are already certain about mirinae's movement by tomorrow, especially that it is moving fast and nothing can cause it to slow down as of now.

[Macrocane]

The WPAC is having an Atlantic basin 2005 type of season - very bad...

Frank

Are you talking about damages or activity? because in terms of activity this season is far from being the most active WPAC typhoon season, actually the ACE is still below average. Thankfully this season has not been more active because even with those levels of "inactivity" we've had such deadly storms as Morakot, Ketsana and Parma.

[oaba09]

I think MIRINAE is moving West right now...Not sure if the sat loops are playing tricks on me but that's what I'm seeing...........

[cycloneye]

For those members who dont know where Manila and the other cities are located,here is a great graphic.

Click symbol at the upper left to have a big closeup.

[metenthusiast]

i will consider the forecast track tomorrow. more or less, they are already certain about mirinae's movement by tomorrow, especially that it is moving fast and nothing can cause it to slow down as of now.

I'm with you on this. My immediate concern right now aside from ascertaining where it would hit land, is when it would hit. Or when its presence would be first felt.

[drdavisjr]

Looks like there is a small town called Dingalan...

[metenthusiast]

For those members who dont know where Manila and the other cities are located,here is a great graphic.

Click symbol at the upper left to have a big closeup.

Very nice cycloneye, and thanks for posting this. Based on forecast models, it would enter in the Aurora Province area (Baler, Casiguran region) and traverse westward.

[drdavisjr]

Jim, here is the link:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dingalan,_Aurora

[oaba09]

For those members who dont know where Manila and the other cities are located,here is a great graphic.

Click symbol at the upper left to have a big closeup.

Very nice cycloneye, and thanks for posting this. Based on forecast models, it would enter in the Aurora Province area (Baler, Casiguran region) and traverse westward.

Or if we follow the JTWC forecast, it will enter at the Mt.Province Area(Baguio, La Trinidad, etc...)

[JTE50]

imagination.

No. I think it's not a question of where and when exactly it would hit anymore. The real question would be as to how we would weather it out.[/quote]

I agree, it's looking more and more likely a Philippine hit - especially if it's moves south of west. The only good part about the track is it won't be crawling along and dumping a lot more rain - well, that's the way it looks right now. I suppose it's impossible to get to the eastern coast with that mountain range in the way correct?[/quote]

What about Polillo Island?[/quote] Only problem with an Island is it's a small target and you may be stuck there if the track changes. But it's a possibility

[cycloneye]

Those people who live at Polillo islands will see a high storm surge.

[ozonepete]

^ Haha but jtwc still reports a 45kts intensity. for a system to have an eye-like feature, it has to reach almost typhoon intensity, maybe 55kts or more. Maybe it still appears to be weaker because of its size and soon-to-be-develop circulation.

When a storm is developing rapidly, as this now appears to be doing, the agencies can't keep up with it sometimes. Remember JTWC reports every 6 hours with intermediate every 3 hours. A eye can form within an hour or two in some cases. So it could be that Mirinae got to 55 knots or even higher since the JTWC issued that last advisory.

[ricmood]

We here in the Philippines are sooooooo doomed...

[cycloneye]

^ Haha but jtwc still reports a 45kts intensity. for a system to have an eye-like feature, it has to reach almost typhoon intensity, maybe 55kts or more. Maybe it still appears to be weaker because of its size and soon-to-be-develop circulation.

When a storm is developing rapidly, as this now appears to be doing, the agencies can't keep up with it sometimes. Remember JTWC reports every 6 hours with intermediate every 3 hours. A eye can form within an hour or two in some cases. So it could be that Mirinae got to 55 knots or even higher since the JTWC issued that last advisory.

That happens also with JMA and yes the National Hurricane Center here in the U.S.

[oaba09]

I think for now, I'm gonna stick w/ JMA's forecast.........It seems to illustrate the most possible scenario at least for now...