WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

At what latitude and longitude is Manila located?

[drdavisjr]

JMA says more or less direct hit on Metro Manila.

[oaba09]

WHOA!!!!!
JMA's latest track just got worse for us in metro manila!!!!

[drdavisjr]

Officially? 14.35 N 120.57 E

[oaba09]

At what latitude and longitude is Manila located?

That's a direct hit on the capital.......

[oaba09]

So basically, JMA is expecting a WSW movement soon...........

[drdavisjr]

Quezon City - 14.6N 121.03E

[drdavisjr]

Gonna be a long weekend, my friends.

[dexterlabio]

Still puzzled by Mirinae's exact location. Does anyone know the latest coordinates of its center? jtwc's latest satfix locates it at 15.6 142.2 but others say that it is on 15.3 latitude.


with jma's latest forecast, wow. that is so scary. exactly going into our area. O_O

[oaba09]

Does it seem like the system is moving W or WSW?(click link)

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 260230.GIF

[oaba09]

Gonna be a long weekend, my friends.

Yup...

Thank God I'm on an extended sick leave(2 weeks)...I usually hate being sick but for this case, I'd rather be sick than outside working while mirinae is passing over us............

[Derek Ortt]

This is what PAGASA is using as their model. MM5

PAGASA should learn how to properly initialize the MM5 model. Also, what resolution and physics packages are they using?

[dexterlabio]

one stormy halloween O_O if ever SANTI struck into metropolis, then we are gonna expect the powerlines down. that will make halloween creepier.

[drdavisjr]

PAGASA should learn how to properly initialize the MM5 model. Also, what resolution and physics packages are they using?

Derek, I'm not sure. Here is the link:

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/wb/mm5_ma ... innew.html

[oaba09]

one stormy halloween O_O if ever SANTI struck into metropolis, then we are gonna expect the powerlines down. that will make halloween creepier.

Indeed........I'm worried about the people who's gonna visit the remains of their loved ones...................

[P.K.]

Still puzzled by Mirinae's exact location. Does anyone know the latest coordinates of its center? jtwc's latest satfix locates it at 15.6 142.2 but others say that it is on 15.3 latitude.

Latest advisory says:

PSTN 271200UTC 15.7N 142.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT

[cycloneye]

1500z JTWC Warning=45kts

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 15.6N 142.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 142.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 16.3N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 16.8N 136.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 17.1N 133.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 17.2N 131.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.9N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 16.4N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 16.1N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 141.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 23W (MIRINAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//
NNNN

[drdavisjr]

one stormy halloween O_O if ever SANTI struck into metropolis, then we are gonna expect the powerlines down. that will make halloween creepier.

Indeed........I'm worried about the people who's gonna visit the remains of their loved ones...................

I think, if this path and forecast holds true until Friday, President Arroyo will implement some kind of emergency rule, if only temporarily.

[oaba09]

Interesting.......That's quite a significant track difference between JTWC and JMA.............I wonder what caused that....

[oaba09]

They eye is quite visible now....