WPAC : TROPICAL DEPRESSION MIRINAE (23W)

[cycloneye]

The only thing I can say about the positions that are you discussing about is that it is secondary as the big picture sadly continues to be that a strong ridge will cause Mirinae to track west towards the Philliphines.

I guess it's unavoidable huh??? I think the only question now is where we'll get hit...........

Bingo,Luzon is big.

[HURAKAN]

27/0830 UTC 15.4N 143.3E T3.5/3.5 NONAME -- West Pacific

55 knots

[dexterlabio]

sheash. luzon landfall is imminent, but it is still not clear to what specific region in Luzon will it strike, whether to the south or to the north. okay, things are getting serious now. all we have to do is be prepared

i saw dvorak number of 3.5 for mirinae, and i thought jtwc will increase its intensity to 55kts, but as of now it is still at 40kts.

[oaba09]

sheash. luzon landfall is imminent, but it is still not clear to what specific region in Luzon will it strike, whether to the south or to the north. okay, things are getting serious now. all we have to do is be prepared

i saw dvorak number of 3.5 for mirinae, and i thought jtwc will increase its intensity to 55kts, but as of now it is still at 40kts.

My best guess is that it will probably hit north of metro manila(but still very near)....................This is xangsane all over again.

[dexterlabio]

^ yeah. i share the same thought. we'll be at least 100kms away from the eye. the high ocean heat content of the philippine sea is the thing. mirinae might intensify at a higher rate before it touches Luzon O_O


i don't want to think of a much severe scenario but, is there still any possibility for mirinae to attain supertyphoon status? forecast intensities only peak at 100kts as of now, but as i always say, things always change.

[ManilaTC]

I have Mirinae at 167 kph at 96 hours.
But very well yet intensity forecasts are usually based on climatology.

there is a huge chance of rapid intensification, especially once it reaches 60-75 kts.

[ManilaTC]

Another question is when it makes landfall over luzon, is how huge the wind field for the storm is. even if it passes 80 km to the north, but typhoon force winds are 150 km radius from the eye. manila will still get a cat 1 or 2 beating. (pardon the words)

[drdavisjr]

^ yeah. i share the same thought. we'll be at least 100kms away from the eye. the high ocean heat content of the philippine sea is the thing. mirinae might intensify at a higher rate before it touches Luzon O_O

I hope we're at least 100km from the eye, but I'm thinking less, maybe even much less.

[cycloneye]

Another question is when it makes landfall over luzon, is how huge the wind field for the storm is. even if it passes 80 km to the north, but typhoon force winds are 150 km radius from the eye. manila will still get a cat 1 or 2 beating. (pardon the words)

Good point about the windfield.

[ManilaTC]

here is the current dvorak fix at 1030z (6:30 pm)
I have it at 15.2N 142.5E


here is also my forecast track based on the warnings of JTWC, JMA, NMC-Beijing, KMA-Korea and CWB-Taiwan.

[oaba09]

seems to be at 14.8 degrees

[ricmood]

Here is the latest water vapor imagery. the very strong subtropical ridges are the orange streaks to the southeast of china extending into luzon (this is why its hot today) and another one to the northeast.

the mid latitude trough is very much way past (remnants of lupit/ramil)

Is there a possibility that once it reached the subtropical ridges, it will stall for a while then track that mid latitude trough?

[drdavisjr]

This is what PAGASA is using as their model. MM5

[oaba09]

Since the mid latitude trough already passed, should we expect a wsw movement soon?

[drdavisjr]

WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 23W (TWENTYTHREE)
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTH OF SAIPAN. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER ROTA, MARIANA
ISLANDS. OBSERVATIONS FROM ROTA SUPPORT THE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
OF 35 KNOTS WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 996 MB. THE WINDS AT GUAM AND
SAIPAN INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL STRUCTURAL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS
STILL FAIRLY SMALL. WINDS AT ANDERSEN AIR FORCE BASE GUAM, SHOW
WINDS AT 40 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ARE
APPROXIMATELY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH PRESSURES NEAR 1004 MB.
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH AN
AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE LLCC IN THE PAST 3 HOURS
AS TS 23W HAS TRACKED OVER ROTA. POLEWARD OUTFLOW TOWARDS THE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL HAS NOT IMPROVED OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS BUT HAS ALLOWED FOR THE UPPER LEVEL EXHAUST REQUIRED
FOR TS 23W TO BE MAINTAINED AS THE LLCC ORGANIZES.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN.
B. TS 23W WILL MAINTAIN A STEADY TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THAT AROUND TAU 48 A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
THE STR, TO THE WEST OF TS 23W, WILL BE LIFTING OUT ALLOWING FOR THE
STR TO RE-DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF TS 23W AND SHIFT THE TRACK TO THE
WEST THROUGH TAU 72. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT IS EXPECTED TO
ENHANCE WESTWARD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO FAST
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
C. TS 23W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 96 UNDER THE
SAME PARAMETERS AS DISCUSSED IN PARA 3.B. LANDFALL WITH LUZON IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, WHICH WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TS 23W AS
IT CROSSES OVER INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, WITH ONE EXCEPTION, WBAR. WBAR KEEPS
THE SYSTEM ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, INTO THE STR,
WHICH BASED ON MODEL FIELDS IS NOT A LIKELY SCENARIO.//
NNNN

[breeze]

Good morning, and good evening to our friends in the west Pacific - here's a link to the
interview Jim (JTE50) did with The Weather Channel for those that missed it. It's the video titled
"It's active in the tropics":

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=15595&from=36hr_outlet_video

[drdavisjr]

Good morning, and good evening to our friends in the west Pacific - here's a link to the
interview Jim (JTE50) did with The Weather Channel for those that missed it. It's the video titled
"It's active in the tropics":

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=15595&from=36hr_outlet_video

Great interview, Jim. Good job!

[HURAKAN]

Quite impressive

[cycloneye]

JMA 12 UTC Warning

TS 0921 (Mirinae)
Issued at 12:40 UTC, 27 October 2009
<Analyses at 27/12 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N15°40'(15.7°)
E142°20'(142.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 994hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 28/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E136°05'(136.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 200km(110NM)

<Forecast for 29/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°35'(16.6°)
E130°35'(130.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 30/12 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N15°55'(15.9°)
E125°30'(125.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 520km

[oaba09]

Good morning, and good evening to our friends in the west Pacific - here's a link to the
interview Jim (JTE50) did with The Weather Channel for those that missed it. It's the video titled
"It's active in the tropics":

http://www.weather.com/multimedia/videoplayer.html?clip=15595&from=36hr_outlet_video

Great video..