WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[breeze]

BTW, Hurakan, did you see my post before? I wanted to know where you got that multi-agency track forecast chart that showed the Asian Agencies forecast tracks.

I think this is the link you're looking forward for regarding the multi-agency track on Lupit, ozonepete:

http://www.cheunghy.com/shared/tc/?name=LUPIT

[ozonepete]

Too bad I can't post images, but just go look at the loops. LUPIT is on the move; it is clearly recurving around the eastern STR now and should start accelerating north or northeastward within the next few hours. This could really start moving fast soon from the looks of it.

HEADS UP, Jim! Some really heavy rain squalls headed for Appari.

[ozonepete]

BTW, Hurakan, did you see my post before? I wanted to know where you got that multi-agency track forecast chart that showed the Asian Agencies forecast tracks.

I think this is the link you're looking forward for regarding the multi-agency track on Lupit, ozonepete:

http://www.cheunghy.com/shared/tc/?name=LUPIT

I thought it was Hurakan. So I mean thanks, breeze!

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

It looks quasi-stationary which can only lead to upwelling and weakening.

[breeze]

Oh, no problem at all!

[metenthusiast]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

It looks quasi-stationary which can only lead to upwelling and weakening.

Thanks Hurakan, for that wonderful sat loop! Being in that state, does it mean that it could dissipate in its tracks before it could recurve north? I saw JTWC's track graph and it seems that it would take quite long for the said curve.

[metenthusiast]

Here's the latest forecast model from PAGASA and it's obvious that they're still expecting it to hit land Friday morning.

[Nika]

Ozonepete: Thank you very much!!
I have to learn, learn, learn...

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

It looks quasi-stationary which can only lead to upwelling and weakening.

Thanks Hurakan, for that wonderful sat loop! Being in that state, does it mean that it could dissipate in its tracks before it could recurve north? I saw JTWC's track graph and it seems that it would take quite long for the said curve.

It may not dissipate but it should weaken

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 18.7N 123.3E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 280NM NORTHWEST 200NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 19.6N 123.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 241800UTC 21.4N 123.9E 160NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 251800UTC 23.2N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNE SLOWLY
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =

[theavocado]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... r4_floater

It looks quasi-stationary which can only lead to upwelling and weakening.

Thanks Hurakan, for that wonderful sat loop! Being in that state, does it mean that it could dissipate in its tracks before it could recurve north? I saw JTWC's track graph and it seems that it would take quite long for the said curve.

It may not dissipate but it should weaken

It's also about to get crushed by mid-level dry air. Soundings to the west show significant dry air in the westerly flow.

[ozonepete]

It's also about to get crushed by mid-level dry air. Soundings to the west show significant dry air in the westerly flow.

Yeah, I see it, avocado. Do you think if it accelerates a little faster northeastward it would ingest less of it? I've seen cases where dry air was quite close but somehow it didn't get ingested into the core. One of the most common cases I've seen is in the Atlantic when a slot of dry air was running just ahead of a strong hurricane but never made it into the core.

[cycloneye]

JMA 18 UTC Track.

[ozonepete]

JMA 18 UTC Track.

This track makes much more sense to me than the JTWC one.

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC Warning=65kts

Great news about the forecast to slowly weaken.

WTPN31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 18.7N 123.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 123.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.6N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.6N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 18.6N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.6N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.7N 121.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.0N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 19.5N 121.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 123.4E. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 285 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM LOSING ORGANIZATION AND
TRACKING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. ALSO EVIDENT IS A GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW PATTERN. A 221758Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE AND
BANDING THAT IS WEAKER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM
IS IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE EAST AND THE STR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM
IS SLOWING AS THERE IS NO CLEAR INFLUENCE ON THE SYSTEM MOTION.
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS ERODING THE RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM, AND PRESUMABLY ERODING THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TYPHOON
ITSELF. AS THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ERODES, THE SYSTEM WILL COME MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS ERRATIC, WHICH LEAVES UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST.
CONSEQUENTLY, THE SYSTEM COULD START TO STEER POLEWARD EARLIER THAN
TAU 72. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER DRY AIR ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY ALONG
WITH INTERACTION WITH LAND TO THE SOUTH. POSITION IS BASED ON
POSITION FIXES FROM PGTW AND AMSR-E IMAGERY. INTENSITY IS BASED ON
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD AND KNES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 221800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z
AND 232100Z.
//
NNNN

[theavocado]

It's also about to get crushed by mid-level dry air. Soundings to the west show significant dry air in the westerly flow.

Yeah, I see it, avocado. Do you think if it accelerates a little faster northeastward it would ingest less of it? I've seen cases where dry air was quite close but somehow it didn't get ingested into the core. One of the most common cases I've seen is in the Atlantic when a slot of dry air was running just ahead of a strong hurricane but never made it into the core.

The problem is that part of the influence for it to go west would be the dry air. There is a pretty dry finger approaching in the watervapor right now. I think it will still affect it, and the 1758 AMSR image JTWC talks about implies something to that nature. It might not actually entrain, but it will beat down on the side.

[ozonepete]

It's also about to get crushed by mid-level dry air. Soundings to the west show significant dry air in the westerly flow.

Yeah, I see it, avocado. Do you think if it accelerates a little faster northeastward it would ingest less of it? I've seen cases where dry air was quite close but somehow it didn't get ingested into the core. One of the most common cases I've seen is in the Atlantic when a slot of dry air was running just ahead of a strong hurricane but never made it into the core.

The problem is that part of the influence for it to go west would be the dry air. There is a pretty dry finger approaching in the watervapor right now. I think it will still affect it, and the 1758 AMSR image JTWC talks about implies something to that nature. It might not actually entrain, but it will beat down on the side.

Ah, yes, and when the west side gets eroded, the symmetry is disrupted, which causes further weakening. Makes sense. Thanks, avocado.

[ozonepete]

Hey Jim, I hope you're up! Wow are there heavy rains coming in over you. You're the only part of the island getting it.

[ozonepete]

2100z JTWC Warning=65kts

Great news about the forecast to slowly weaken.

Yes. And they've modified the track again. They'll have to keep moving the recurve closer until they get more in line with JMA.

[theavocado]

This track makes much more sense to me than the JTWC one.

The problem is that JMA has been saying this for a while, yet the system keeps tracking west. I personally don't see the sudden turn. There is a weak shortwave over western china, but there appears to be a very weak finger of the STR to the north of the system that can protect it a little. I think the models are biting off on the zonal midlatitude flow, because they turn so suddenly and have been doing it for so long.