WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

Lupit still moving WSW....I believe it should have turned to a W direction by now based on the JMA and JYWC models...

I think you can ALMOST throw the models and forecasts out the window with Lupit.

I think northern luzon will not be spared...Even if lupit goes west right now, it will still braise the aparri area...

Of course, especially if the storm stays stationary for A FEW DAYS!!!

[oaba09]

let's watch this more closely....wow

[drdavisjr]

The one by Guam they are keeping an eye on? I cant see that photo

Yes, I guess that's it. Here's another image from typhoon2000.ph.



I think this is something we should watch out for in the future...

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.2S 157.1E,
APPROXIMATELY 185 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, SOLOMON ISLANDS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD REGION
OF ELONGATED TURNING WITH PERSISTENT CONVECTION. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS SUPPORTED THE MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY, WITH UNFLAGGED WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE NEAR THE CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE AREA IS EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT IS ALSO PRODUCING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM. DUE TO CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
ORGANIZATION AND MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS
POOR.

[drdavisjr]

This MIGHT be it...

2009OCT22 065700 18.77 -124.49
2009OCT22 073000 18.80 -124.25

It pushed up to the north a very slight amount ...

[oaba09]

This MIGHT be it...

2009OCT22 065700 18.77 -124.49
2009OCT22 073000 18.80 -124.25

It pushed up to the north a very slight amount ...

finally!!!

[metenthusiast]

I'm watching sat loops of lupit and I'm sure you guys too. Are those rain bands licking the northeastern part of Luzon? I guess their already experiencing Lupit's presence already. It seems to me that it's already close enough...

[drdavisjr]

This MIGHT be it...

2009OCT22 065700 18.77 -124.49
2009OCT22 073000 18.80 -124.25

It pushed up to the north a very slight amount ...

finally!!!

Yes, but that is very slight. We still have to watch it...

[oaba09]

This MIGHT be it...

2009OCT22 065700 18.77 -124.49
2009OCT22 073000 18.80 -124.25

It pushed up to the north a very slight amount ...

finally!!!

Yes, but that is very slight. We still have to watch it...

Yes...It doesn't seem to be that significant...I don't even see it on satellite loops yet...

[metenthusiast]

This MIGHT be it...

2009OCT22 065700 18.77 -124.49
2009OCT22 073000 18.80 -124.25

It pushed up to the north a very slight amount ...

finally!!!

Don't uncross your fingers yet. The nudge is still to minimal for comfort.

[JTE50]

Hey guys, just got a wifi card for my laptop here in Aparri, Philippines thanks to the DOST PAGASA Meteorologist in Charge at the radar site here. I visited the site and they have a bunker of a building with an old radar unit - before doppler, but it works and they are reporting their obs back to Manila via SSB radio. They are quite meticulous with the obs writing everything down like clockwork. They said I could stay with them in their 3 story bunker which I might. Only problem is . . . it's right on the water! I mean you could throw a rock from there and hit the surf! Come to think of it maybe that's a great place for good video. My barometer read 1005mb and their station barometer read 103.9mb about 2 hours ago. Winds have been steady all day around 30 mph. Solid overcast with no rain yet.

One of the other weather specialists with PAGASA - Dino Nolasco, showed me some of the photos from the flooding in Manila in late Sept. Amazing how much rain they got in a short time! I'd seen some pics in the national press in the US but nothing like what he shot during his storm assessment.

I've seen more media from Manila and some from BBC here filming on the beach. Also, saw some of the army guys with their M16s riding around in a big truck.

I'll read up on the thread to see what is new but I'm so glad to be on line in the room now.

[oaba09]

What do you think about lupit's movement guys? I can't seem to determine it's current direction...Maybe it's stationary right now...

[drdavisjr]

It looks to be stationary. I don't think it will even dump much rain. It is rapidly weakening. Last I checked it was Dvorak CI# 3.4

I'm starting to think we dodged a bullet, thank goodness...

I hope it doesn't do too much up north, but I believe we in the Metro are going to get some light rain showers...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[oaba09]

PAGASA's model still indicates a direct hit on aparri cagayan....From what I saw on the news, the winds are starting to pick up a little....The conditions should get worse as lupit get's nearer...

[oaba09]

The news anchor questioned PAGASA spokesperson(Nathaniel Cruz) regarding the different models. Cruz's answer? He said that the likelihood of a landfall has a high chance because of the current proximity of the typhoon to the land....Interesting...Very interesting...In fairness, it seems to make some sense...

[drdavisjr]

Hmmm...yes, very interesting. That's good he's playing cautious.

[oaba09]

Hmmm...yes, very interesting. That's good he's playing cautious.

Exactly! At least this way, people won't be surprised if ever a landfall does happen

[beaufort12]

I think Lupit has caught H1N1. Looking rather sick on infared.

[drdavisjr]

I think Lupit has caught H1N1. Looking rather sick on infared.

HaHaHa!!!

[oaba09]

The eye is so close to land now......The typhoon is entering a critical phase......All our questions might be answered in the next few hours....Here we go..

[beaufort12]

To me it looks like Lupit is stationary. I hope this means a subsequent movement away from Luzon, but I don't think it's going anywhere right at the moment.