WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[StormingB81]

Well they say it should start turning North soon. I bet you by 1500 Advisory it will be moving north AWAY from PI. They dont need no rain or winds.

[metenthusiast]

2009OCT22 013000 18.91 -124.74
2009OCT22 015700 18.86 -124.71
2009OCT22 023000 18.85 -124.68
2009OCT22 025700 18.84 -124.66
2009OCT22 033000 18.83 -124.63
2009OCT22 035700 18.82 -124.61

still seems to be moving WSW or SW, but very slow...

Stay tuned to the heart-stopping conclusion...what a roller coaster ride!!!

You bet I will. This baby must turn just like they say and not put up another nasty trick. The sun is beating down mercilessly here in Manila and people are not concerned of Ramil (Lupit) anymore. I just hope this storm hasn't any more tricks up its sleeve for their sake...

[oaba09]

The center of the typhoon is almost at the same level as the northern tip of luzon......It is still moving WSW.....

[metenthusiast]

The center of the typhoon is almost at the same level as the northern tip of luzon......It is still moving WSW.....

It seems about right based on images from JMA and JTWC. But I think it should already be preparing for its westerly - NWesterly turn and should not lose anymore latitude from hereon.

[StormingB81]

Even if it does come up around Okinawa it probably wont be much maybe a TS. But if it is slow moving the rains would hurt bad

[metenthusiast]

guys, I know this is a bit off-topic but I stumbled into this model from ecmwf for next week. Does anyone have more data on this alleged new disturbance? (by the way, this is not ty lupit)

thanks!

[StormingB81]

The one by Guam they are keeping an eye on? I cant see that photo

[oaba09]

guys, I know this is a bit off-topic but I stumbled into this model from ecmwf for next week. Does anyone have more data on this alleged new disturbance? (by the way, this is not ty lupit)

thanks!

I checked it out and there seems to be some build up...It's waaay too disorganized to be considered anything yet...

[metenthusiast]

The one by Guam they are keeping an eye on? I cant see that photo

Yes, I guess that's it. Here's another image from typhoon2000.ph.



I think this is something we should watch out for in the future...

[oaba09]

HERE IT IS

[metenthusiast]

guys, I know this is a bit off-topic but I stumbled into this model from ecmwf for next week. Does anyone have more data on this alleged new disturbance? (by the way, this is not ty lupit)

thanks!

I checked it out and there seems to be some build up...It's waaay too disorganized to be considered anything yet...

Oh.. okay. That sounds encouraging. Thanks!

[oaba09]

guys, I know this is a bit off-topic but I stumbled into this model from ecmwf for next week. Does anyone have more data on this alleged new disturbance? (by the way, this is not ty lupit)

thanks!

I checked it out and there seems to be some build up...It's waaay too disorganized to be considered anything yet...

Oh.. okay. That sounds encouraging. Thanks!

We still gotta watch out for it though........

[metenthusiast]

We still gotta watch out for it though........

Well, you got that right. If there's one thing I have learned from typhoons here in the Philippines is that they get even more crazier by the day and they tend to do something even more crazier when you least expect it.

Besides, it always pays to be vigilant nowadays.

[oaba09]

We still gotta watch out for it though........

Well, you got that right. If there's one thing I have learned from typhoons here in the Philippines is that they get even more crazier by the day and they tend to do something even more crazier when you least expect it.

Besides, it always pays to be vigilant nowadays.

Ok, I'm no expert at this but let me try...I checked the current Sea Surface Temperature(SST) and it's definitely hot on the WPAC....I believe this can contribute to the build up of another weather disturbance(please correct me if I'm wrong)...

[metenthusiast]

We still gotta watch out for it though........

Well, you got that right. If there's one thing I have learned from typhoons here in the Philippines is that they get even more crazier by the day and they tend to do something even more crazier when you least expect it.

Besides, it always pays to be vigilant nowadays.

Ok, I'm no expert at this but let me try...I checked the current Sea Surface Temperature(SST) and it's definitely hot on the WPAC....I believe this can contribute to the build up of another weather disturbance(please correct me if I'm wrong)...

No it's okay. It's the same understanding I have on the subject. Isn't that the image where the red coloring indicates a higher surface temp?

But hey, like you I'm no expert, and not a met-wannabe either. I'm just interested, that's all and besides, it's always nice to learn new things everyday.

[oaba09]

Lupit still moving WSW....I believe it should have turned to a W direction by now based on the JMA and JYWC models...

[oaba09]

No it's okay. It's the same understanding I have on the subject. Isn't that the image where the red coloring indicates a higher surface temp?

But hey, like you I'm no expert, and not a met-wannabe either. I'm just interested, that's all and besides, it's always nice to learn new things everyday.

HERE IT IS

[metenthusiast]

Lupit still moving WSW....I believe it should have turned to a W direction by now based on the JMA and JYWC models...

Same thought here. Ah well, maybe the two STR's still fighting over Lupit's steering and maybe it's what causing the delay in shift of direction.

[drdavisjr]

Lupit still moving WSW....I believe it should have turned to a W direction by now based on the JMA and JYWC models...

I think you can ALMOST throw the models and forecasts out the window with Lupit.

[oaba09]

Lupit still moving WSW....I believe it should have turned to a W direction by now based on the JMA and JYWC models...

I think you can ALMOST throw the models and forecasts out the window with Lupit.

I think northern luzon will not be spared...Even if lupit goes west right now, it will still braise the aparri area...