WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[drdavisjr]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

Good mornin' guys ... yeah, it is moving ever so slowly sw

Good morning!
Still no clear forecast...

Yikes...so it's just drifting around - lazily to the SW?

[cycloneye]

JMA 00 UTC Warning

Track stays away from Luzon.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 22 October 2009
<Analyses at 22/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°55'(18.9°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW560km(300NM)
SE370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

[oaba09]

JMA 00 UTC Warning

Track stays away from Luzon.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 22 October 2009
<Analyses at 22/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N18°55'(18.9°)
E124°50'(124.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NW560km(300NM)
SE370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 23/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°55'(18.9°)
E123°55'(123.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 24/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°10'(19.2°)
E123°10'(123.2°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 25/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°55'(19.9°)
E123°00'(123.0°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)

I hope this happens...

[drdavisjr]

Thanks for the update Pete. Not sure how long the internet will stay up here as Lupit comes in closer. Shot some video yesterday of the area - people getting ready and some leaving. Here is a link:http://www.weatherzine.net/blog/2009/10/21/people-ready-for-typhoon-lupit-in-aparri-philippines/

Nice video Jim. I was going to tell you, if you happen to need anything while in Manila, please let us know.

[metenthusiast]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

Good mornin' guys ... yeah, it is moving ever so slowly sw

Good morning too! and welcome to yet another seemingly tedious wait for Lupit's movements.

[ozonepete]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

Good mornin' guys ... yeah, it is moving ever so slowly sw

Good morning too! and welcome to yet another seemingly tedious wait for Lupit's movements.

How are ya, met? Did you keep your appointment; are ya ok? You haven't missed too much. As you said, more tedious waiting. Although the prospects for Lupit to miss you are increasing.

[ozonepete]

JMA 00 UTC Warning

Track stays away from Luzon.

Thanks, cyclone. This is pretty close to the way I see it. JTWC will come around...

[metenthusiast]

How are ya, met? Did you keep your appointment; are ya ok? You haven't missed too much. As you said, more tedious waiting. Although the prospects for Lupit to miss you are increasing.

Thanks ozonepete! I'm okay and I've had my treatment yesterday and it went fine. Yup, Lupit missing Luzon seems to be the general consensus, and I hope it's what happens.

[drdavisjr]

Wow, this looks very encouraging. My only real concern now is the amount of rain it might drop on us and the north in this stall/recurvature.

[drdavisjr]

Thanks ozonepete! I'm okay and I've had my treatment yesterday and it went fine.

That's good, met!

[metenthusiast]

Thanks ozonepete! I'm okay and I've had my treatment yesterday and it went fine.

That's good, met!

Yeah! Good thing I found out about this site when I did. It gave me a lot of information and insight just listening to the discussions here...

Thanks everyone!

[oaba09]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Off topic:Phillies 6 Dodgers 3...

crap!

[metenthusiast]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from tedious, this is turning out to be a bit anti-climatic, don't you think? But don't get me wrong, I am enjoying the observations and discussions with you guys and learning a lot about met in the process..

[oaba09]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from tedious, this is turning out to be a bit anti-climatic, don't you think? But don't get me wrong, I am enjoying the observations and discussions with you guys and learning a lot about met in the process..

I agree....
I believe PAGASA will have some sort of training in Australia and I think they will use Lupit as an example for the training....

[ozonepete]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from tedious, this is turning out to be a bit anti-climatic, don't you think? But don't get me wrong, I am enjoying the observations and discussions with you guys and learning a lot about met in the process..

Absolutely. Don't forget what you're learning so you can use it the next time. And you guys sure have a lot of next times when it comes to tropical storms. I'm very jealous. Yes, a lot of my friends laugh about it or think I'm nuts, but I love these storms and would love to chase them some day.

[metenthusiast]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from tedious, this is turning out to be a bit anti-climatic, don't you think? But don't get me wrong, I am enjoying the observations and discussions with you guys and learning a lot about met in the process..

I agree....
I believe PAGASA will have some sort of training in Australia and I think they will use Lupit as an example for the training....

About time they upgrade their system and knowledge. It's just sad that it still took batterings from 2 storms and a threat from a typhoon before they decided to do so.

Ah well... Yan ang Pinoy! (That's the Filipino!)

[ozonepete]

Here's a recent water vapor satellite image I annotated to show what I think is going on as far as the relative influence of the two STRs. LUPIT seems to be getting more under the influence of the eastern lobe of the STR.

[metenthusiast]

Please Lupit! Just miss us!!!!!!!!!!!

Apart from tedious, this is turning out to be a bit anti-climatic, don't you think? But don't get me wrong, I am enjoying the observations and discussions with you guys and learning a lot about met in the process..

Absolutely. Don't forget what you're learning so you can use it the next time. And you guys sure have a lot of next times when it comes to tropical storms. I'm very jealous. Yes, a lot of my friends laugh about it or think I'm nuts, but I love these storms and would love to chase them some day.

You're quite right about the "fun" and "lot of next times" part. Me, I just caught interest in met just after Ondoy (Ketsana) hit the metro, and here I am, going crazy figuring out what Lupit would do and can't get enough of it.

I guess if I weren't in dialysis treatment, I could go storm-chasing just for the hell of it..

[oaba09]

Here's a recent water vapor satellite image I annotated to show what I think is going on as far as the relative influence of the two STRs. LUPIT seems to be getting more under the influence of the eastern lobe of the STR.

basically, Lupit's undecided where to go....

[metenthusiast]

Here's a recent water vapor satellite image I annotated to show what I think is going on as far as the relative influence of the two STRs. LUPIT seems to be getting more under the influence of the eastern lobe of the STR.

Thanks for the image and annotation, ozonepete. So if I'm reading this right, Lupit would eventually turn and blown NE?