WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can get some observations from the northern Philippines? It looks like the outer part of Lupit is starting to move over the northeastern part of the country.

[ozonepete]

JMA 18 UTC Warning.

TY 0920 (Lupit)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 21 October 2009
<Analyses at 21/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N19°05'(19.1°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement SW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 22/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°30'(18.5°)
E123°25'(123.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW Slowly
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 23/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E122°35'(122.6°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 24/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°40'(18.7°)
E121°55'(121.9°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 350km(190NM)

Thanks, cycloneye!
Here's some recent positions, including the one you just posted:

200921 1257 19.49 125.5
200921 1357 19.43 125.39
200921 1500 19.50 125.6
200921 1540 19.10 125.3
200921 1840 19.10 125.4

So it has indeed stalled out. On the water vapor loops you can see that the ridge to its west is apparently blocking it, at least for now.

Now what? I also see on the water vapor loops that there's some cloud motion just north of the storm that flows to the north and northeast, so a channel may be opening for the recurve.

[oaba09]

Interesting...Still unpredicatable I see...I wonder when the forecasts will start to become clearer...

[vbhoutex]

Does anyone know where we can get some observations from the northern Philippines? It looks like the outer part of Lupit is starting to move over the northeastern part of the country.

One of our storm chaser members is in Aparee in Northern Luzon, but internet out of there is very sketchy at best. I will post anything I can get from him since most of his information will come out as text messages to his usual partner. I will check my facebook periodically to see if anything has come in. I know you weren't talking just about this type of info, but thought I would post it in case we do get anything.

[I-wall]

Does anyone know where we can get some observations from the northern Philippines? It looks like the outer part of Lupit is starting to move over the northeastern part of the country.

One of our storm chaser members is in Aparee in Northern Luzon, but internet out of there is very sketchy at best. I will post anything I can get from him since most of his information will come out as text messages to his usual partner. I will check my facebook periodically to see if anything has come in. I know you weren't talking just about this type of info, but thought I would post it in case we do get anything.

Thanks!!

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC Warning=80kts

Latest track moves it thru the northern coast of Luzon.

WTPN31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 125.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.8N 124.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 18.5N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.3N 122.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 18.2N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 18.3N 121.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.6N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 19.1N 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 125.1E. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 370 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SYSTEM WITH TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING, DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC), AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. A 211715Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWS
MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL FORMED EYE-LIKE
FEATURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS (37GHZ). THE UPPER LEVEL IMAGE (89GHZ),
HOWEVER, SHOWS THE EYE-LIKE FEATURE OPEN ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
LLCC. POSITION IS BASED ON THE 211715Z AMSR-E PASS AND INTENSITY IS
BASED ON ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO A
REGION OF WEAKER STEERING AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS YET TO COME FULLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT OF THE
SYSTEM BEING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS
IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO THE TRACK OF TY 22W. TWO VERY DISTINCT
SCENARIOS EXIST FOR THE TRACK. THE FIRST SCENARIO, FAVORED BY
NOGAPS, JGSM, AND UKMO IS FOR THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN TIP OF LUZON UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A FINGER OF THE STR TO THE WEST. UNDER THIS SCENARIO,
AROUND TAU 72, A SHORT-WAVE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE
AREA, ERODE THE FINGER OF THE STR, AND THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
QUASISTATIONARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE STRAIT OF LUZON. THE SECOND
SCENARIO, FAVORED BY GFS, ECMWF, GFDN AND WBAR CALL FOR THE SYSTEM
TO RAPIDLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN TAU 12 AND 24 UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A WESTERLY SURGE FROM THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR TO
THE WEST. IN THIS SCENARIO, THE SYSTEM WOULD THEN BE PICKED UP BY
THE FLOW AROUND THE STR TO THE EAST AND WOULD THEN TRACK INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN
FLOW AROUND THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT TY 22W
IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS, AS IT IS DEPICTED IN THE
INITIALIZATION OF NOGAPS, JGSM AND UKMO, AND IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED BY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR. FOR THIS REASON,
THE FORECAST FAVORS THE FIRST SCENARIO, BUT THE SECOND SCENARIO
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 31
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
NNNN

[ozonepete]

Thanks again, cycloneye. The last two JTWC prog reasonings have been much more explanatory and clear about what's going on. I tried to explain it myself earlier today. Anyway, I like the fact they said this: "A THOROUGH ANALYSIS OF THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AROUND THE STR TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM INDICATES THAT TY 22W IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE STR AXIS, AS IT IS DEPICTED IN THE INITIALIZATION OF NOGAPS, JGSM AND UKMO, AND IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY FLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE STR."

I'm glad because the correct analysis of the STR strength and position is key to what will happen next. The other big thing of course (and more important) is how it changes in strength and position over the coming hours. Since the models are split over the two scenarios, and there isn't much new model output until late tonight (from the 00Z runs), we still have to wait and wonder. But it's interesting to note that they just said that TY22 (LUPIT) is south of the STR axis. All that means is that it should be being steered by the NE winds on the southeastern side of the STR towards the SW. But they didn't talk about the strength of the part of the ridge west of LUPIT nor the part of the ridge to the east. If it is fairly stationary, the stronger of the two flows will probably catch the typhoon first. (I do not believe JTWCs speed of 6 knots. JMA's "slowly southwestward" is more realistic, but the actual storm postions show virtually no movement at all.) So until the new model output comes in we can at least watch the water vapor (and even the IR) satellite loops and look for motion of the mid to high level clouds to maybe get a little clue as to where the steering winds are trending. And remember only the position fixes from the agencies give the scientific answer as to where it's really been going.

[ozonepete]

Looks like a slow movement to the south or southeast may be developing, not in the least because the STR is holding tough to its west, impeding westward motion. On the whole, it looks like it will drift around for another 12-24 hours near where it is and then start recurving north or northeastward. I wouldn't rule out a little more motion to the west or southwest before it starts recurving, but that ridge to the west is holding too well.

[Typhoon10]

Looks like a slow movement to the south or southeast may be developing, not in the least because the STR is holding tough to its west, impeding westward motion. On the whole, it looks like it will drift around for another 12-24 hours near where it is and then start recurving north or northeastward. I wouldn't rule out a little more motion to the west or southwest before it starts recurving, but that ridge to the west is holding too well.

So looks like no chance of coming anywhere near Hong Kong?

[JTE50]

Here in Aparri, Philippines, (northern Luzon) the winds picked up overnight. All night long I could hear the wind blowing though the open motel corridor. My door would rattle every time due to the pressure difference. Outside metal was banging around making those all too familiar clanging sounds I've hear in past hurricanes. You can definitely feel Lupit is getting closer.

We have light rain, solid overcast, and about 25-35 winds estimated looking out at the palms trees toward the beach. My handheld barometer is reading 1008mb. I'll go out and shoot video after this update and get a better read since the wind will be coming off the water. The waves were big yesterday so I know they will be even bigger now.

So it appears Lupit is heading for the northern coast? I see on this site, even JMA has changed yet again. Folks here starting to get rattled a bit. Kids are in the internet cafe playing games staying cool and calm. Older folks have a very worried look on their faces and everywhere the talk is about Ramil (Lupit). They've seen all the forecasts of Ramil turning but when you watch the conditions deteriorate outside - that worries them big time!

[ozonepete]

Looks like a slow movement to the south or southeast may be developing, not in the least because the STR is holding tough to its west, impeding westward motion. On the whole, it looks like it will drift around for another 12-24 hours near where it is and then start recurving north or northeastward. I wouldn't rule out a little more motion to the west or southwest before it starts recurving, but that ridge to the west is holding too well.

So looks like no chance of coming anywhere near Hong Kong?

Sorry. I love these storms like you do, but the subtropical ridge of high pressure over your area has dug in and will not weaken enough before this one recurves back out to the north. Just doesn't look very likely at all.

[ozonepete]

Here in Aparri, Philippines, (northern Luzon) the winds picked up overnight. All night long I could hear the wind blowing though the open motel corridor. My door would rattle every time due to the pressure difference. Outside metal was banging around making those all too familiar clanging sounds I've hear in past hurricanes. You can definitely feel Lupit is getting closer.

We have light rain, solid overcast, and about 25-35 winds estimated looking out at the palms trees toward the beach. My handheld barometer is reading 1008mb. I'll go out and shoot video after this update and get a better read since the wind will be coming off the water. The waves were big yesterday so I know they will be even bigger now.

So it appears Lupit is heading for the northern coast? I see on this site, even JMA has changed yet again. Folks here starting to get rattled a bit. Kids are in the internet cafe playing games staying cool and calm. Older folks have a very worried look on their faces and everywhere the talk is about Ramil (Lupit). They've seen all the forecasts of Ramil turning but when you watch the conditions deteriorate outside - that worries them big time!

Hi Jim,
The slower LUPIT goes, the more the odds increase that the core of LUPIT will not reach you, but right now the official JMA and JTWC forecasts still take it right over you on Friday night/Saturday morning. We're waiting for the next track updates, but as you know the really good model output doesn't run until 00Z and we won't see that until around 04 or 05Z. So hang in, get some good video but stay safe. I would LOVE to be there!

[oaba09]

Here in Aparri, Philippines, (northern Luzon) the winds picked up overnight. All night long I could hear the wind blowing though the open motel corridor. My door would rattle every time due to the pressure difference. Outside metal was banging around making those all too familiar clanging sounds I've hear in past hurricanes. You can definitely feel Lupit is getting closer.

We have light rain, solid overcast, and about 25-35 winds estimated looking out at the palms trees toward the beach. My handheld barometer is reading 1008mb. I'll go out and shoot video after this update and get a better read since the wind will be coming off the water. The waves were big yesterday so I know they will be even bigger now.

So it appears Lupit is heading for the northern coast? I see on this site, even JMA has changed yet again. Folks here starting to get rattled a bit. Kids are in the internet cafe playing games staying cool and calm. Older folks have a very worried look on their faces and everywhere the talk is about Ramil (Lupit). They've seen all the forecasts of Ramil turning but when you watch the conditions deteriorate outside - that worries them big time!

Hi Jim,
The slower LUPIT goes, the more the odds increase that the core of LUPIT will not reach you, but right now the official JMA and JTWC forecasts still take it right over you on Friday night/Saturday morning. We're waiting for the next track updates, but as you know the really good model output doesn't run until 00Z and we won't see that until around 04 or 05Z. So hang in, get some good video but stay safe. I would LOVE to be there!

\

Based on the latest JTWC forecast, it seems like lupit will further stall once it reaches the northeastern tip of luzon....This worries me a lot because this kinda reminds me of parma and the destruction that it brought.........

[JTE50]

Here in Aparri, Philippines, (northern Luzon) the winds picked up overnight. All night long I could hear the wind blowing though the open motel corridor. My door would rattle every time due to the pressure difference. Outside metal was banging around making those all too familiar clanging sounds I've hear in past hurricanes. You can definitely feel Lupit is getting closer.

We have light rain, solid overcast, and about 25-35 winds estimated looking out at the palms trees toward the beach. My handheld barometer is reading 1008mb. I'll go out and shoot video after this update and get a better read since the wind will be coming off the water. The waves were big yesterday so I know they will be even bigger now.

So it appears Lupit is heading for the northern coast? I see on this site, even JMA has changed yet again. Folks here starting to get rattled a bit. Kids are in the internet cafe playing games staying cool and calm. Older folks have a very worried look on their faces and everywhere the talk is about Ramil (Lupit). They've seen all the forecasts of Ramil turning but when you watch the conditions deteriorate outside - that worries them big time!

Hi Jim,
The slower LUPIT goes, the more the odds increase that the core of LUPIT will not reach you, but right now the official JMA and JTWC forecasts still take it right over you on Friday night/Saturday morning. We're waiting for the next track updates, but as you know the really good model output doesn't run until 00Z and we won't see that until around 04 or 05Z. So hang in, get some good video but stay safe. I would LOVE to be there!

Thanks for the update Pete. Not sure how long the internet will stay up here as Lupit comes in closer. Shot some video yesterday of the area - people getting ready and some leaving. Here is a link:http://www.weatherzine.net/blog/2009/10/21/people-ready-for-typhoon-lupit-in-aparri-philippines/

[ozonepete]

Based on the latest JTWC forecast, it seems like lupit will further stall once it reaches the northeastern tip of luzon....This worries me a lot because this kinda reminds me of parma and the destruction that it brought.........

Hi oaba09. We still have 12-24 hours of waiting to do, but I'm becoming more convinced that Lupit can't get much more west. That STR (SubTropical Ridge) to its west seems to be holding strong, preventing it from going significantly west or southwest anymore. And the portion of the STR to the east of Lupit looks to be developing a weakness. If this trend continues, Lupit will move along the path of least resistance, through the weakness to its east and then up to the north.

In other words, rather than stalling over the Phillipines and then moving north, it has ALREADY stalled to your northeast, and will eventually turn north and leave. Just my current analysis.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Thanks for the update Pete. Not sure how long the internet will stay up here as Lupit comes in closer. Shot some video yesterday of the area - people getting ready and some leaving. Here is a link:http://www.weatherzine.net/blog/2009/10/21/people-ready-for-typhoon-lupit-in-aparri-philippines/

Your video is excellent. Totally gave me the flavor of the area. Still waiting for updates. Should LUPIT not make it to you, I'll try to advise on its next stop.

[oaba09]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

[drdavisjr]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

Good mornin' guys ... yeah, it is moving ever so slowly sw

[oaba09]

We can't see the sun anymore here in metro manila but there are no rains yet...Based on the latest satellite loop, this seems like an effect of lupit...

[oaba09]

It seems to me moving SW very slowly.....

Good mornin' guys ... yeah, it is moving ever so slowly sw

Good morning!
Still no clear forecast...