WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[oaba09]

2009OCT21 015700 19.99N 126.76E
2009OCT21 023000 19.96N 126.69E
2009OCT21 025700 19.93N 126.64E
2009OCT21 033000 19.90N 126.57E
2009OCT21 035700 19.88N 126.52E

The center of the storm is still losing lattitude.

So it is still going WSW....

Yes, and it appears that the ridge to the west is trying to rebuild. The question is how fast the storm will move. If the ridge rebuilds the storm could intensify AND accelerate. I do not even pretend to know what will happen, but JTWC hasn't changed their forecast track, yet.

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I think the typhoon is starting to get disorganized based on the latest satellite loop I'm watching....However, what worries me is that if the typhoon becomes weaker, the rainfall intensity might increase....

[drdavisjr]

As you guys can see from my avatar, I am a BIG OU football fan, and one thing I've learned, is never celebrate until the game is over

[oaba09]

As you guys can see from my avatar, I am a BIG OU football fan, and one thing I've learned, is never celebrate until the game is over

I'm a GT Yellow Jackets fan(Basketball) and the same Philosophy applies. Not really a college football guy but the same philosophy applies in basketball...

Yes, we should still be cautious because anything can change....

[drdavisjr]

TY 22W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANALYZED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE TYPHOON REPLACES THE CURRENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
EXTENSION TO THE NORTH AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. THE TRACK
FORECAST FOR TY 22W HAS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING DUE TO A SPLIT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
ONE SET OF MODEL SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS,
DEPICTS A SLOWDOWN AND POLEWARD RECURVATURE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
STRENGTHENING PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STORM
DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. A SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS, INCLUDING THE
ECMWF, JGSM, AND UKMET, SHOW THE TYPHOON CONTINUING WESTWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST BECOMES THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM. THIS SECOND SET OF SOLUTIONS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE AND JTWC FORECASTS, AND
IS SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF BOTH A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF TY 22W AND A ZONAL UPSTREAM MIDLATITUDE FLOW
PATTERN. THUS, THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THESE WESTWARD-
RUNNING MODEL SOLUTIONS. HOWEVER, A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST MAY BE NECESSARY IF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC FEATURES
SHIFT IN FAVOR OF THE SLOWER MOTION SCENARIO. LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SOME
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48, WHEN THE STORM CIRCULATION WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH TERRAIN OVER NORTHERN LUZON.

[metenthusiast]

I think the typhoon is starting to get disorganized based on the latest satellite loop I'm watching....However, what worries me is that if the typhoon becomes weaker, the rainfall intensity might increase....

I think I heard somewhere before that if it continues to weaken more, it would track more westerly, northwesterly, or probably just turn away.

Though it seems that rebuilding STR to its north and west would become a significant factor in the coming hours. If it rebuilds more rapidly than forecasted, would that mean that Lupit would track more WSW or even SW?

[oaba09]

I think the typhoon is starting to get disorganized based on the latest satellite loop I'm watching....However, what worries me is that if the typhoon becomes weaker, the rainfall intensity might increase....

I think I heard somewhere before that if it continues to weaken more, it would track more westerly, northwesterly, or probably just turn away.

Though it seems that rebuilding STR to its north and west would become a significant factor in the coming hours. If it rebuilds more rapidly than forecasted, would that mean that Lupit would track more WSW or even SW?

Yup....That's why the next couple of hours is very crucial.....We'll probably have a clearer picture tomorrow...

[metenthusiast]

I think the typhoon is starting to get disorganized based on the latest satellite loop I'm watching....However, what worries me is that if the typhoon becomes weaker, the rainfall intensity might increase....

I think I heard somewhere before that if it continues to weaken more, it would track more westerly, northwesterly, or probably just turn away.

Though it seems that rebuilding STR to its north and west would become a significant factor in the coming hours. If it rebuilds more rapidly than forecasted, would that mean that Lupit would track more WSW or even SW?

Yup....That's why the next couple of hours is very crucial.....We'll probably have a clearer picture tomorrow...

Better pray that that STR to the Northwest of Lupit doesn't intensify significantly and rapidly before it comes near Luzon...

[drdavisjr]

So far, it looks like it is dead on JTWC forecast track.

[drdavisjr]

2009OCT21 043000 19.85N 126.45E
2009OCT21 045700 19.83N 126.40E
2009OCT21 051300 19.81N 126.37E

[oaba09]

So far, it looks like it is dead on JTWC forecast track.

I agree...I usually trust the forecast of the JTWC.........If that happens, the cagayan area is in very big trouble....

[oaba09]

2009OCT21 043000 19.85N 126.45E
2009OCT21 045700 19.83N 126.40E
2009OCT21 051300 19.81N 126.37E

Still going south I see...

[drdavisjr]

Still looks like a direct hit on Aparri, Cagayan.

Cat 1 Typhoon

[oaba09]

Still looks like a direct hit on Aparri, Cagayan.

Cat 1 Typhoon

Yup...looks like it.......do you think the exit will on the la union area if ever lupit makes a landfall?

[drdavisjr]

Still looks like a direct hit on Aparri, Cagayan.

Cat 1 Typhoon

Yup...looks like it.......do you think the exit will on the la union area if ever lupit makes a landfall?

Who me? That's funny..

I don't know, depends on the ridge and the speed/intesity of Lupit. I'd have to go w/JTWC...

[oaba09]

Still looks like a direct hit on Aparri, Cagayan.

Cat 1 Typhoon

Yup...looks like it.......do you think the exit will on the la union area if ever lupit makes a landfall?

Who me? That's funny..

I don't know, depends on the ridge and the speed/intesity of Lupit. I'd have to go w/JTWC...

I'm thinking that it would exit north of la union area...Lupt seems to be the following the track plotted on the wundermap link you gave me....If that continues, I think lupit will exit through laog city(north of la union)....

[drdavisjr]

I'm kinda worried that the ridge to the northwest would be just strong enough, long enough, to push Lupit further southwest instead of west southwest.

[oaba09]

I'm kinda worried that the ridge to the northwest would be just strong enough, long enough, to push Lupit further southwest instead of west southwest.

Well if this typhoon will be moving slowly, that is indeed a problem....

[JTE50]

Just finished shooting some video here in Aparri, Philippines. Lots of nervous folks here. Surf is really pretty big on the beach. Some folks evacuating further south. I saw several small buses called Jeepneys loaded with folks inside and on top. The road south is paved but it's a treacherous drive especially if you're on top of a bus. Every available computer in the cafes with internet is occupied - Dropping the speed to a crawl. If a CAT 1 or 2 hits here it's going to be a real problem. Lots of tin roof shacks will come apart. The area is flat too so flooding is a real possibility and an adjacent river could flood too. FYI: The locals call Lupit "Ramil".

I'll try and update as the situation changes here in Aparri. Thanks for posting the track updates.

[drdavisjr]

Just finished shooting some video here in Aparri, Philippines. Lots of nervous folks here. Surf is really pretty big on the beach. Some folks evacuating further south. I saw several small buses called Jeepneys loaded with folks inside and on top. The road south is paved but it's a treacherous drive especially if you're on top of a bus. Every available computer in the cafes with internet is occupied - Dropping the speed to a crawl. If a CAT 1 or 2 hits here it's going to be a real problem. Lots of tin roof shacks will come apart. The area is flat too so flooding is a real possibility and an adjacent river could flood too. FYI: The locals call Lupit "Ramil".

I'll try and update as the situation changes here in Aparri. Thanks for posting the track updates.

Wish I was there...NOT! But sounds scary and somehow exciting, at the same time.

[drdavisjr]

Just finished shooting some video here in Aparri, Philippines. Lots of nervous folks here. Surf is really pretty big on the beach. Some folks evacuating further south. I saw several small buses called Jeepneys loaded with folks inside and on top. The road south is paved but it's a treacherous drive especially if you're on top of a bus. Every available computer in the cafes with internet is occupied - Dropping the speed to a crawl. If a CAT 1 or 2 hits here it's going to be a real problem. Lots of tin roof shacks will come apart. The area is flat too so flooding is a real possibility and an adjacent river could flood too. FYI: The locals call Lupit "Ramil".

I'll try and update as the situation changes here in Aparri. Thanks for posting the track updates.

Wish I was there...NOT! But sounds scary and somehow exciting, at the same time.

JTE50, I'm no expert, but it looks like you are in the right place to do your job..