WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

#661 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:34 pm

It's still moving WSW w/c is bad for us...

drdavisjr · #662 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:43 pm

In the past week, I've learned alot from the pro mets and regular members of this forum. Before I joined this, I relied on what I could see in satellite loops. I realize that there are so many other factors come into play, like steering winds, troughs, ridges, etc. Very interesting stuff, thanks!

So, my worry is that the ridge to the west of the storm will build up just enough to allow it to continue wsw or even sw.

Tense moments, definitely.

#663 Postby **ozonepete** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:43 pm

drdavisjr wrote:The latest Dvorak CI# is 3.6

19.93N 126.64E

Still moving slowly WSW

Wow, I just saw the latest satellite images and it really has lost a lot of deep convection. And it seems to be moving more west again, which makes sense for a weaker storm. CIMSS has Dvorak 3.8, but any way you slice it, this may be just a minimal typhoon now or even a TS (tropical storm.) Dvorak 3.8 translates to 65 knots, a Tropical Storm. Good news for that whole area. If this keeps up, it may pass even farther north of Luzon and recurve sooner. Best of all, so far it isn't producing really heavy rains to its south, so maybe the Philippines will be spared on this one. You still have to watch it really closely, because some of the worst rains come from TS's and the track is still wobbly, but it's looking better for the central Philippines right now.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#664 Postby **ozonepete** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:46 pm

drdavisjr wrote:In the past week, I've learned alot from the pro mets and regular members of this forum. Before I joined this, I relied on what I could see in satellite loops. I realize that there are so many other factors come into play, like steering winds, troughs, ridges, etc. Very interesting stuff, thanks!

So, my worry is that the ridge to the west of the storm will build up just enough to allow it to continue wsw or even sw.

Tense moments, definitely.

But doesn't look like it right now. Keep the faith, drdavisjr! (And keep watching 'til the danger is over.)

drdavisjr · #665 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:48 pm

Thanks! You just answered my question.

#666 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:52 pm

PAGASA just released their latest bulletin.....They still have Lupit hitting the cagayan area...

drdavisjr · #667 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 10:57 pm

oaba09 wrote:PAGASA just released their latest bulletin.....They still have Lupit hitting the cagayan area...

I'm not sure that I really trust PAGASA...

#668 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:03 pm

drdavisjr wrote:
oaba09 wrote:PAGASA just released their latest bulletin.....They still have Lupit hitting the cagayan area...

I'm not sure that I really trust PAGASA...

Same here.......They pretty much have the same forecast as JTWC right now...

Btw, PAGASA said that Lupit still has 175 kph of sustained winds.....They are obviously exagerating in order to make the people evacuate their homes(I can't really blame them for doing it)

#669 Postby **ozonepete** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:07 pm

oaba09 wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:
oaba09 wrote:PAGASA just released their latest bulletin.....They still have Lupit hitting the cagayan area...

I'm not sure that I really trust PAGASA...

Same here.......They pretty much have the same forecast as JTWC right now...

Btw, PAGASA said that Lupit still has 175 kph of sustained winds.....They are obviously exagerating in order to make the people evacuate their homes(I can't really blame them for doing it)

I don't blame them either. Evacuating for nothing is a hardship. Not evacuating and getting hurt or dying is a lot worse.

drdavisjr · #670 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:25 pm

According to the 30 min JTWC position, the 1 min avg is 57 knots = 105 kph

#671 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:31 pm

Looking at the radar the last couple of loops looks like it has moved west. that could be good and MISS PI altogether! They need that luck!

metenthusiast · #672 Postby **metenthusiast** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:39 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Looking at the radar the last couple of loops looks like it has moved west. that could be good and MISS PI altogether! They need that luck!

Yes, that seems to be the case. I guess it won't hit land and miss Luzon completely. Nice.

Derek Ortt · #673 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:41 pm

even a pass to the north may bring devastating flooding

metenthusiast · #674 Postby **metenthusiast** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:45 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:even a pass to the north may bring devastating flooding

True, so I'm keeping my fingers cross that it does turns around and recurve before it gets any closer to Luzon. GFS has that model, I think.

#675 Postby **oaba09** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:47 pm

metenthusiast wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:even a pass to the north may bring devastating flooding

True, so I'm keeping my fingers cross that it does turns around and recurve before it gets any closer to Luzon. GFS has that model, I think.

The north is still in trouble.....I think central luzon can breath easy now.....The worst that can happen to metro manila is probably dark skies and a continuous but light rainfall(like parma)...As for the north, they really need to evacuate their homes...

drdavisjr · #676 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:49 pm

This storm has been very unpredictable. We should remain cautious...

#677 Postby **StormingB81** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:54 pm

drdavisjr wrote:This storm has been very unpredictable. We should remain cautious...

GREAT ADVICE! TC's are always unpredictale and better to be safe then sorry!

drdavisjr · #678 Postby **drdavisjr** » Tue Oct 20, 2009 11:58 pm

2009OCT21 015700 19.99N 126.76E
2009OCT21 023000 19.96N 126.69E
2009OCT21 025700 19.93N 126.64E
2009OCT21 033000 19.90N 126.57E
2009OCT21 035700 19.88N 126.52E

The center of the storm is still losing lattitude.

#679 Postby **oaba09** » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:01 am

drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT21 015700 19.99N 126.76E
2009OCT21 023000 19.96N 126.69E
2009OCT21 025700 19.93N 126.64E
2009OCT21 033000 19.90N 126.57E
2009OCT21 035700 19.88N 126.52E

The center of the storm is still losing lattitude.

So it is still going WSW....

drdavisjr · #680 Postby **drdavisjr** » Wed Oct 21, 2009 12:04 am

oaba09 wrote:
drdavisjr wrote:2009OCT21 015700 19.99N 126.76E
2009OCT21 023000 19.96N 126.69E
2009OCT21 025700 19.93N 126.64E
2009OCT21 033000 19.90N 126.57E
2009OCT21 035700 19.88N 126.52E

The center of the storm is still losing lattitude.

So it is still going WSW....

Yes, and it appears that the ridge to the west is trying to rebuild. The question is how fast the storm will move. If the ridge rebuilds the storm could intensify AND accelerate. I do not even pretend to know what will happen, but JTWC hasn't changed their forecast track, yet.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

Who is online