WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

[metenthusiast]

The scary thing is according to the water vapor loops, if you live in North Luzon and you look out your window now, all you see is clear blue skies....

It's the same thing here in manila. The sky is clear and the sun is beating down like there's no tomorrow. Makes you think there's no storm in the northeastern part of the country, only kilometers away..

[StormingB81]

Lets hope your skies stay blue.

[drdavisjr]

The scary thing is according to the water vapor loops, if you live in North Luzon and you look out your window now, all you see is clear blue skies....

It's the same thing here in manila. The sky is clear and the sun is beating down like there's no tomorrow. Makes you think there's no storm in the northeastern part of the country, only kilometers away..

Yeah, we are fortunate that we have internet and can monitor the developments. What if you were in a north province and relying on your own senses for guidance?

[drdavisjr]

Lets hope your skies stay blue.

Thank you, keeping our fingers crossed.

[metenthusiast]

Lets hope your skies stay blue.

Thank you, keeping our fingers crossed.

Right-o!

[metenthusiast]

It seems the center of Lupit is already beyond the 20 deg lat. I guess the high over china would quite be the deciding factor on how much dive Lupit would do, if it ever does that.

As I see it, it still seems to be going northeast a bit...

[oaba09]

^I don't know...It seems to still be following the track.....

[StormingB81]

Well if it stays on the same track for a couple of hours Okinawa looks like will get some outter bands of the storm then yet it can turn and it will continue to be mostly cloudy with a little wind.

**Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.**

[metenthusiast]

latest from JMA



<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

[oaba09]

latest from JMA



<Analyses at 20/06 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Strong
Center position N20°30'(20.5°)
E129°40'(129.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 130km(70NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)
<Forecast for 21/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N19°20'(19.3°)
E126°20'(126.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)
<Forecast for 22/06 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°25'(18.4°)
E123°20'(123.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(8kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 430km(230NM)
<Forecast for 23/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°25'(17.4°)
E120°20'(120.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WSW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 410km(220NM)
Storm warning area Wide 500km(270NM)

Still no change I see...Oh well

[aerology]

The scary thing is according to the water vapor loops, if you live in North Luzon and you look out your window now, all you see is clear blue skies....

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This typhoon ( Lupit [24W]) started up as the Moon was maximum North declination, made the middle of the big S bend, as the moon went South over the equator on the 15th/16th and now the secondary tidal bulge from the Southern declinational Tidal will try to push it in another circle, and have it moving NE by the 23rd or 24th, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tide, turns and starts to come back to the equator.

The clear air to the North was over India yesterday, it is part of the secondary tidal bulge, the typhoon is the swirl, of energy into the middle of the bulge, it's position is being steered by the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides.

[metenthusiast]

This typhoon ( Lupit [24W]) started up as the Moon was maximum North declination, made the middle of the big S bend, as the moon went South over the equator on the 15th/16th and now the secondary tidal bulge from the Southern declinational Tidal will try to push it in another circle, and have it moving NE by the 23rd or 24th, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tide, turns and starts to come back to the equator.

The clear air to the North was over India yesterday, it is part of the secondary tidal bulge, the typhoon is the swirl, of energy into the middle of the bulge, it's position is being steered by the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides.

Pardon me, but does that mean it has possibilities of turning around on the 23rd or 24th after it passes?

[StormingB81]

Of you go to Typhoon2000 that PI site is says that it may clip northern PI then shoot north. Man this is getting crazy all these different tracks. It will be an anxious couple of days.

[aerology]

This typhoon ( Lupit [24W]) started up as the Moon was maximum North declination, made the middle of the big S bend, as the moon went South over the equator on the 15th/16th and now the secondary tidal bulge from the Southern declinational Tidal will try to push it in another circle, and have it moving NE by the 23rd or 24th, as the Lunar declinational atmospheric tide, turns and starts to come back to the equator.

The clear air to the North was over India yesterday, it is part of the secondary tidal bulge, the typhoon is the swirl, of energy into the middle of the bulge, it's position is being steered by the Lunar declinational atmospheric tides.

Pardon me, but does that mean it has possibilities of turning around on the 23rd or 24th after it passes?

There will be more daily surges in the flow off of China that will either create shear, or add cold dry air to the mix, I think it will tighten up and slow down as a result, before it joins the NE Movement and moves with it.

[Infdidoll]

New JTWC warning is up. Eyewall is returning...Only a slight arch in the track showing that the storm is moving WNW, but not much change.

[HURAKAN]

Double eyewall

[oaba09]

Double eyewall

Is that an effect of the EWRC???

[HURAKAN]

ZCZC 774
WTPQ20 RJTD 200600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0920 LUPIT (0920)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200600UTC 20.5N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 70NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 210600UTC 19.3N 126.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 220600UTC 18.4N 123.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 230600UTC 17.4N 120.3E 220NM 70%
MOVE WSW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Is that an effect of the EWRC???

Yes, the inner center is the old one and it's collapsing. The big eye will take over and try to tighten for the typhoon to intensify

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200600Z --- NEAR 20.4N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 20.2N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 19.7N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 19.3N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.9N 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 18.1N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 17.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.2N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200900Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 129.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHEAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS TY
22W'S EYE HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE PINPOINTING ITS POSITION
WITH HIGH ACCURACY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS VERY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ESPECIALLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE THAT
IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE TYPHOON IS DIRECTLY UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS AND
HAS DEVELOPED A MESOSCALE ANTICYCLONE. ADDITIONALLY, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR HAS HELPED SUSTAIN ITS INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS INTERPOLATED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES (T5.5/6.0),
PGTW (T5.0/5.0) AND RJTD (T4.5/4.5). TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION TO
THE NORTH. IT IS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IN THE CURRENT STEERING FLOW PATTERN.
THEREAFTER, THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE TYPHOON ON A MORE EQUATORWARD
TRACK. THIS FLOW WILL BRING TY 22W INTO NORTHERN LUZON BY TAU 60.
INTERACTION WITH THE LANDMASS OF LUZON WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT WEAKENING
BUT TY 22W SHOULD REINTENSIFY AFTER IT REEMERGES IN THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA BY TAU 96 DUE TO WARM WATERS AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS. THE AVAILABLE NUMERIC GUIDANCE IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THIS TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE WBAR AND TCLAPS SOLUTIONS
DEPICT IMMEDIATE NORTHEASTWARD RECURVATURE INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES. GFS AND GFDN ALSO DO SOMETHING SIMILAR AT MID-RANGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.//
NNNN