WPAC: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM LUPIT (22W)

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#501 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:36 pm

No change in the track from JTWC.

0300z JTWC warning=95kts

WTPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 22W (LUPIT) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 130.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 130.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 20.2N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 19.9N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 19.4N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.7N 123.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 17.9N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 17.4N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.2N 116.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 130.0E.
TYPHOON (TY) 22W (LUPIT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 635 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
200000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND
210300Z.//
NNNN



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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#502 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:50 pm

cycloneye wrote:No change in the track from JTWC.


LOL. I''m not surprized now that I think of it. They will wait for the really good model output, the 00Z stuff, which is just becoming avaliable for them to look over within the next hour or two. Whatever changes they see in the model runs, they won't add as updates to their charts until either 6Z or 9Z. We'll just have to wait. Meanwhile, LUPIT just keeps gaining latitude. :roll:
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#503 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:51 pm

^Interesting...........I kinda expected for the track to be moved a little bit north....
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#504 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Oct 19, 2009 9:52 pm

Been following along with everything the last few days, but haven't had much to add, but wow - it started off a nice, quiet morning here and then out of nowhere, we started getting some serious wind gusts on Okinawa. I'm guessing this is from Lupit? My son ran in from outside complaining that a lawn chair on the porch was chasing him. I thought he was crazy until I saw the wind scoot it further down the balcony.

Why is it that those of us on Okinawa are starting to feel like typhoons are playing chicken with us? In any case, from most reports it appears to be weakening so that's good news.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#505 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:25 pm

Latest from PAGASA.......
they also seem to think that the typhoon will go SW just like JTWC & JMA....Interesting....I guess for now, this will be the track that we'll expect......

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#506 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:28 pm

Also, based on the PAGASA track....they seem to be expecting lupit to go SW soon....
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#507 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:37 pm

oaba09 wrote:Latest from PAGASA.......
they also seem to think that the typhoon will go SW just like JTWC & JMA....Interesting....I guess for now, this will be the track that we'll expect......


The computer models need the latest soundings (atmospheric conditions) and storm psoitions to update the track and strength forecasts. They get that data at 00Z and so are just getting it and digesting it now. You won't see a new forecast that contains the new model output until at least 06Z, and more likely 09Z. But meanwhile, LUPIT is still gaining latitude...

I'm not saying it won't move west-southwest or west for a while. I'm saying that by the time it does, it may be too far north and could miss the Philippines, and may turn northwest sooner than the longer range models call for. Just look at the water vapor loops. There is another shortwave to its northwest that is currently pulling it poleward. That has to alter the final track to some degree.

Honestly I don't see a southwest turn at all anymore. Maybe west, just possibly west-southwest, but not southwest, which, if it stays on its current trajectory a few more hours, it will need to do to hit Luzon.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#508 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 10:40 pm

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Latest from PAGASA.......
they also seem to think that the typhoon will go SW just like JTWC & JMA....Interesting....I guess for now, this will be the track that we'll expect......


The computer models need the latest soundings (atmospheric conditions) and storm psoitions to update the track and strength forecasts. They get that data at 00Z and so are just getting it and digesting it now. You won't see a new forecast that contains the new model output until at least 06Z, and more likely 09Z. But meanwhile, LUPIT is still gaining latitude...

I'm not saying it won't move west-southwest or west for a while. I'm saying that by the time it does, it may be too far north and could miss the Philippines, and may turn northwest sooner than the longer range models call for. Just look at the water vapor loops. There is another shortwave to its northwest that is currently pulling it poleward. That has to alter the final track to some degree.


I'll be observing this until this evening and watch out for possible changes...I really hope you're right :D
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#509 Postby drdavisjr » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:19 pm

oaba09 wrote:I'll be observing this until this evening and watch out for possible changes...I really hope you're right :D


This is starting to look much better for the Phillipines and even more so for us in Manila. :D
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#510 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:24 pm

ozonepete wrote:
oaba09 wrote:Latest from PAGASA.......
they also seem to think that the typhoon will go SW just like JTWC & JMA....Interesting....I guess for now, this will be the track that we'll expect......


The computer models need the latest soundings (atmospheric conditions) and storm psoitions to update the track and strength forecasts. They get that data at 00Z and so are just getting it and digesting it now. You won't see a new forecast that contains the new model output until at least 06Z, and more likely 09Z. But meanwhile, LUPIT is still gaining latitude...

I'm not saying it won't move west-southwest or west for a while. I'm saying that by the time it does, it may be too far north and could miss the Philippines, and may turn northwest sooner than the longer range models call for. Just look at the water vapor loops. There is another shortwave to its northwest that is currently pulling it poleward. That has to alter the final track to some degree.

Honestly I don't see a southwest turn at all anymore. Maybe west, just possibly west-southwest, but not southwest, which, if it stays on its current trajectory a few more hours, it will need to do to hit Luzon.



Are you saying this could come up to japan or wait and see?
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#511 Postby ozonepete » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:27 pm

StormingB81 wrote:Are you saying this could come up to japan or wait and see?


Wait and see. There are a lot of interesting scenarios developing now. I'm going to bed. Very tired.
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#512 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:31 pm

Have a good night Ozone.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#513 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:42 pm

Yeah, that would be a really bad situation...Right now, it is too close for comfort after we found so much comfort in all the tracks showing it staying well out of our area. Now that it has surpassed the latitude it was supposed to reach and is howling at our back door...I'm getting a little nervous. Still trying to put faith in meteorological models, but beginning to exercise some caution. The rapid change in weather is a little nerve-wracking.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#514 Postby Infdidoll » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:43 pm

ozonepete wrote:
StormingB81 wrote:Are you saying this could come up to japan or wait and see?


Wait and see. There are a lot of interesting scenarios developing now. I'm going to bed. Very tired.


Goodnight! Thanks for your insight...always interesting.
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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#515 Postby oaba09 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:43 pm

Infdidoll wrote:Yeah, that would be a really bad situation...Right now, it is too close for comfort after we found so much comfort in all the tracks showing it staying well out of our area. Now that it has surpassed the latitude it was supposed to reach and is howling at our back door...I'm getting a little nervous. Still trying to put faith in meteorological models, but beginning to exercise some caution. The rapid change in weather is a little nerve-wracking.


A lot can happen in a couple of hours...This is the reason why I'm monitoring this typhoon very closely
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#516 Postby StormingB81 » Mon Oct 19, 2009 11:51 pm

I think now everyone is watching it because it doesnt like to listen to the forcast!
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Re:

#517 Postby oaba09 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:22 am

StormingB81 wrote:I think now everyone is watching it because it doesnt like to listen to the forcast!


The best thing to do right now is to watch out for regular updates from JTWC and JMA...........
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#518 Postby StormingB81 » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:27 am

I think it went to much west and a little to the north to turn back and hit PI (thats what we are all hoping, they been through TOO MUCH) they need a break) but thats just me Im not a proffessional and I did NOT stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night...lol

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Re: WPAC: TYPHOON LUPIT (22W)

#519 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:40 am

It would seem to me that the next 3-6 hours would tell it all for the us in Philippines. The storm looks like it is still trying to go to the nothwest, and miss us completely. :)

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#520 Postby drdavisjr » Tue Oct 20, 2009 12:51 am

The scary thing is according to the water vapor loops, if you live in North Luzon and you look out your window now, all you see is clear blue skies....
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